VHIKI REMUSITO SNAPSHOT 7/12 - 11/12 | Iko Kuunganidzwa kweUSDZ NENGUVA DZIMWEWO INYAYA INODA KUTI ZVIMWE ZVIRATIDZWE
Zvinhu zvakati wandei zvakatungamira svondo rekutengesa rinopera Zvita 4. Covid uye netariro yemishonga yekudzivirira, Brexit, inofa inofa yehutongi hwaTrump, uye hurukuro dzinosimudzira nemabhangi epakati nehurumende. Idzi ndidzo nyaya dziri kuenderera mberi dze macroeconomic idzo dzinozonyanya kuraira mafambiro nemaitiro atinoona pane edu machati eFX uye nguva pamusoro pemazuva anotevera nemavhiki.
Iyo Covid mhedzisiro pamisika yemari
Zvisinei nehutachiona euphoria hwakagadzirwa mukati mevhiki, hurumende dzakasiyana dziri kurwisana nedambudziko rekuparadzira majekiseni pasina kukanganisa simba. Pfizer's drug inongoshanda chete pa -70c, saka kutakura chakadai chisina kuongororwa nemuchina wekutengesera kusvikira wasvika paruoko rwemumwe unomiririra basa rekugadzirisa risati ramboitwa. Zvakare, isu hatizive kana kuti jekiseni rinodzivirira asymptomatic kuchinjisa kana kuti rinotora nguva yakareba sei.
IU.SA yakanyora pedyo nevanosvika zviuru zvitatu vakafa uye mazana maviri ezviuru zviitiko zvakanaka zuva rega rega pamazuva achangopfuura uye nyanzvi dzinofungidzira kuti huwandu uhu huchawedzera kunze kwekunge USA yatora mutemo wekumanikidza kupfeka. Pasina chiyero ichi, nyika yakatarisana nevanhu vanopfuura mazana mana nemakumi mashanu evanofa munaKurume 3,000, sekuratidzira kwaJohn Hopkin University. Joe Biden ari kukurudzira mutemo wezuva-remasikati-wekupfeka mushure mekugadzwa kwake.
Zvisinei nerufu rweCovid uye makesi manhamba anosvika kurekodha kumusoro, USA equices indices dzakatungamira kumberi, kutora rekodhi yakakwira. Hapana chakavanzika nei Wall Street iri kuwedzera apo Main Street ichidonha; mari uye zviitwa zvemari zvakavharirwa mumisika. Iko hakuna humbowo hwekudonha-pasi; Makumi maviri nemashanu emamiriyoni vakuru veAmerica parizvino vari kuwana kunze kwemabasa ebasa, asi misika inoburitsa zvinyorwa zvepamusoro.
USD slump inoita kunge isina magumo pamberi
Dhora rekuUS ranga richidonha zvinoshamisa pamasvondo apfuura. Ose maviri manejimendi eTrump uye iri kuuya Biden manejimendi haigone kugadzirisa iyi nyaya.
Iyo isina simba dhora ine imwe yakakosha kubatsirwa; zvinoita kuti kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuve kwakachipa, iyo flip padivi inflation inokwira, asi muZIRP (zero chimbadzo rate rate) nharaunda inflation inofanira kuchengetedzwa.
Iko kudonha kwedhora mhedzisiro isingadzivisike yemabhirioni emadhora 'akakosha ekukurudzira iyo Fed neUSA hurumende vakapinda mukumutsidzira Covid yakarohwa hupfumi. Kana Congress neSeneti ikapedzisira yabvumidza chimwe chidanho chekusimudzira pasvondo rinouya, tinogona kutarisira kuti dhora rirambe risina simba.
Munguva yeLondon yekutengesa chikamu neChishanu mangwanani, iyo dhora index (DXY) yakatengesa padhuze nepafurati pa90.64. Kana iwe uchifunga mupfungwa kuti iyo index yakabata chinzvimbo padyo ne100 pamusoro pemakore apfuura, kudonha kunova kuyerwa. Iyo DXY iri pasi padhuze -6% gore kusvika zvino, uye pasi -1.29% vhiki nevhiki.
Iko kukosha kweUSD maringe neiyo euro zvakare kuyera kushomeka kwechido chekubata madhora. Uye zvakakosha kuti uzive kuti ECB iri kushandisa ZIRP neNIRP marongero ayo asingafanire kuratidza iyo euro senzira yakachengeteka-nzvimbo. EUR / USD yakanga ichitengesa kumusoro 0.13% muchikamu chemangwanani; yakakwira 2.93% pamwedzi uye 8.89% gore kusvika zvino.
Pa 1.216 mari inotengeswa zvakanyanya iri kutengesa padanho risingaonekwe kubva munaKubvumbi-Chivabvu 2018. Kana ichitariswa pane chati chezuva nezuva, maitiro anoonekwa kubva pakupera kwaNovember, uye vatengesi vanofamba vachazofanira kuongorora mamiriro acho nokungwarira pamwe nekugadzirisa yavo yekumira inomira kuverengera kuti vabhangi muzana yezviwanikwa.
Iyo iri kuuya Brexit haisati yarova kukosha kweiyo sterling parizvino
IUK ikozvino mazuva makumi maviri nemana kubva pakubuda munyika makumi maviri nenomwe EU EU yekutengesa, uye kunyangwe iyo UK govt ichimanikidza mineti yekupedzisira-inoponesa kumeso, chokwadi chakananga chinosara; iyo UK iri kurasikirwa nemusika mumwe chete kuwana. Vanhu, zvinhu, mari nemasevhisi havachakwanise kufamba nenzira isina kukakavara uye pasina mitero.
Vaongorori nevatauri vemusika vanofanirwa kubvisa maziso avo pamachati avo uye vanzwisise mhirizhonga inoitika kubva muna Ndira 1. IUK hupfumi 80% inovimba nemasevhisi uye mutengi, mamaira manomwe emakirori muswe pamachiteshi eUK anoisa pfungwa. Masangano atove kusimudzira ari kuudza veruzhinji kuti vatarisire masherufu asina chinhu muzvitoro.
Dhairema kushaya simba mubhodhi kwave kufadza GBP; sterling yakakwira zvakanyanya maringe neUSD nekuda kwezvikonzero zviviri; iyo dhora kushaya simba uye Brexit tarisiro. Kuderera kweUSD pamasvondo mashoma apfuura kungave kwakavanza kusachengeteka kwakakomberedza GBP.
Muchikamu cheLondon muna Zvita 4, GBP / USD yaitengesa pasi -0.25% mushure mekunge mapoka maviri eBrexit ekutaurirana aburitsa zvirevo zvinoratidza kuti hurukuro dzave kudonha.
Chikwata cheBritish chakatarisa nemaune kuredza, iyo seindasitiri inosvika isingasviki 0.1% yeUK GDP. Nyaya yemumakungwa inokonzeresa manzwiro ekuda nyika uye kuda nyika pakati peaBrits avo vanoverenga mashoma mashoma emabhuku.
GBP / USD yakakwira 2.45% pamwedzi uye 2.40% gore kusvika zvino. Mutengo wazvino uri chinhambwe kubva parari pakati peUSD neGBP vaongorori vazhinji vakafanotaura nechivimbo nguva ino gore rapfuura, denda reBlack Swan rakave nemhedzisiro yakawanda isingatarisirwe uye isingatarisirwe.
Sterling yakanyoreswa mhindu maringe neyuro panguva ye2020, uye muchikamu chekutanga, muchinjikwa-mari mbiri EUR / GBP yakatengeswa pa0.905 kumusoro 0.33% ichityisidzira kutyora R1. EUR / GBP yakakwira 6.36% gore kusvika zvino. Uku kusimuka, pamwe chete nemari dzinopesana nemaode NZD neAUD zvakare kukwira kutarisana neGGP, zvinoratidzira kune ese asina simba mafungiro uye kutya kutya kubata UK mapaundi. Iyo pondo iri zvakare pasi -2.31% maringe yen muna 2020.
Ndarama yakapenya senzvimbo yakachengeteka muna 2020
Kunyangwe varidzi vefizikiki PhDs vaizonetseka kuti vatsanangure kuti sei misika yemari yakakwira muUSA nedzimwe nyika kunyoresa nzvimbo dzakakwirira, nepo nzvimbo dzakachengeteka senge Swiss franc, yen yeJapan nesimbi dzinokosha dzakanakirwa nezvakakosha.
Ndarama iri kumusoro makumi maviri muzana gore kusvika nhasi apo sirivheri iri kumusoro 20%. Sirivheri yatsvedza pasi pe radar. Pakatanga kuitika denda reCovid rairasa misika munaKurume naKubvumbi, sirivheri yenyama yainetsa kuwana.
Zvimwe kunze kwekuwana PM kuburikidza nedhijitari / chaiyo zvinoreva kuzvitenga muchimiro chemuviri kunzwisisika kune vashoma varimari. Ounce yesirivha iri pasi pe $ 25, imwe yegoridhe i $ 1840. Icho chisarudzo chiri nyore kune vazhinji vadiki (asi vakafungidzirwa-up) varimi, avo vakarasikirwa nekuvimba kwavo muhurumende uye mari inopihwa.
Svondo rinouya zviitiko zvekendari yezvehupfumi kutungamira
Vatengesi vanofanirwa kuongorora zvese zvataurwa pamusoro macroeconomic uye zvematongerwo enyika svondo rinouya, pamusoro pezvekuburitswa kwedata uye zviziviso zvakanyorwa mukarenda. Ngatitii hurumende yeUSA haigone kubvumirana kune yakasimudzira mari uye kana mhosva dzeCovid uye kufa kuchimuka pasi rese uye kana nyaya dzeBrexi dzisingakwanise kugadziriswa. Muchiitiko ichocho, USD, GBP uye EUR zvinokanganiswa.
Nekudaro, karenda rekuburitsa dhata uye zviitiko zvichine simba rekufambisa edu e forex misika, uye svondo rinouya rine zvimwe zvinonakidza zviitiko zvakarongwa.
Kuverengerwa kwakasiyana kwekufungidzirwa kweZEW kweGerman kunoburitswa neChipiri, Zvita 8. Kufungidzira kuri kwekudonha, izvo zvinogona kuratidza kuti zvikamu zveGerman zvichiri kunzwa kukanganisa kwekukanganiswa kwakabatana kweCovid.
Canada ichazivisa sarudzo yayo yemutero neChitatu 9, uye fungidziro yacho haina shanduko. CAD yakakwira ne1.67% maringe neUSD pasvondo rapfuura. Kana iyo BoC ikadzikisa mwero kubva pa0.25% kusvika pa0.00%, izvi zviwanikwa zvinogona kuzomanikidzwa. NeChina China UK INS ichaburitsa iyo yazvino GDP data. Kufungidzira kweReuters kuri kwekudonha kubva pa1% kukura kwakanyoreswa mumwedzi wapfuura. Kuverenga kweQoQ kunofungidzirwawo kudonha kubva pa15.5% yakanyorerwa Q2. ECB inoratidzawo yavo sarudzo yemitero; mwero wekukwereta unotarisirwa kugara pa0.00%, pamwe nemutengo wedhipoiti uri -0.25% Iko hakuna zano rekuti ECB ichatora iwo musoro wepamusoro pasi pe0.00% panguva ino mudambudziko reCovid.
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