VHIKI MARKET SNAPSHOT 2 / 10-6 / 10 | Inhamba yakaderera zvakanyanya yeNFP ingatora misika nekushamisika?
Inguva iyoyo yemwedzi zvakare; panoburitswa nhamba yeNFP paChishanu chekutanga chemwedzi mutsva. Kune vatengesi vevanoziva vanogona kushamisika kuti chii chiri kukakavara, zvisinei, vatengesi vaibatanidzwa mumisika panguva yeKudzoka Kukuru, apo nhamba dzeNFP dzaigona kuratidza kurasikirwa kwemabasa anopfuura mazana manomwe mumwedzi mumwe chete, vanogara vachiisa chitoro chikuru mu nhamba. Pave nechinguva kubva patakaona kushamisika mune data reNFP, iro rakaringana kufambisa USA misika yemari, kana kukosha kwedhora, asi neChishanu fungidziro ndeye 700k chete mabasa anga agadzirwa munaGunyana. Chishanu kunze sechiitiko chekutarisa nzvimbo zvakanyatsonaka.
Zvimwe zviitiko zvakakwirira zvine chekuita nezviitiko zvevhiki iri kuuya zvinosanganisira: iyo RBA ichiseta chimbadzo cheAustralia, ISM kuverenga kweUSA neMarkit PMI kuverenga kune ese anotungamira nyika dzeEuropean uye USA. Iyo Swiss CPI inoburitswa, sezvazvino ichangoburwa yeCanada yekushaya basa uye data rebasa.
Svondo inotanga neAiG yekugadzira index yeAustralia, parizvino iri pa59.8 muna Nyamavhuvhu chete shanduko ine mwero kumusoro inofungidzirwa. Shure kwaizvozvo isu tinogashira raft yeJapanese Tankan dhata, inonyanya kuzivikanwa ichave iri hombe vagadziri uye vasiri vagadziri index uye nemaonero kuverenga. Iwo akateedzana ekuverengwa ese akafungidzirwa kuratidza kuvandudzika kune mwero uye nehurumende yazvino yeJapan yakanyungudika, semutungamiriri wehurumende Abe akadaidza sarudzo, data rezvehupfumi reJapan rinogona kunge richiongororwa zvakanyanya mumavhiki anotevera, zvine chekuita nekwakanganisa yen. YeJapan yekutengesa mota uye yayo Nikkei PMI yekugadzira, ichaburitswa zvakare.
As Misika yeEurope yakavhurwa Muvhuro Nhamba dzekutengesa dzeSwitzerland dzichaburitswa, dzawa ne -0.7% muna Nyamavhuvhu, zvigadziriso zvichatsvakwa. Iyo Swiss SVME PMI yaGunyana ichazoburitswa zvakare, pa61.2 muna Nyamavhuvhu, tarisiro ndeyekuti kuverenga kuve kwakachengetedzwa. Kugadzira PMIs eFrance, Germany neItaly kunoendeswa naMarkit, sekuve kuverenga kwakabatana kweEurozone kugadzira, pa60.6 muna Nyamavhuvhu nhamba iyi inotarisirwa kuchengetedzwa, kana isina kubhejera. Iyo PM yekugadzira PMI ichaburitswa, yekunakidzwa yakapihwa kuti orthodox hupfumi hwedzidziso hunoratidza kuti pondo isina kusimba, yakasangana mumakota maviri ekutanga a2017, yaifanira kunge yakatungamira mukugadzira / kutengesa kunze kwenyika muUK Canada yekugadzira Markit PMI yakaburitswa musi Muvhuro, sezvakangoita kuverenga kweISM kuUSA, idzi kuverenga kweISM kwakanyanya kukosheswa muUSA kupfuura kwaMarkit maPIs, kuverenga kwakakosha ndekwekugadzira, kunotarisirwa kupinda muna 57.8, kudzika kubva ku58.8 muna Nyamavhuvhu. Mari yekuvaka muUSA inofungidzirwa kuve yakakwira muna Nyamavhuvhu kusvika pa0.5% kukura, kubva pakadzika 0.6% muna Chikunguru.
Chipiri inotanga neNew Zealand yechinyakare data yemwedzi pamitengo yemikombe yemukaka, kusanganisira simba remukaka. Zvigadzirwa zvemukaka ndiko kutumira kukuru kweNZ kuenda kuAsia, neNZ ichangobva kusangana neparamende yakaturikwa musarudzo dzese uye danho rekuchengetedza huwandu hwezvibereko pa1.75%, kuenderana mune data kuchatsvaga. Bhanga repakati reAustralia (iyo RBA) ichaburitsa danho rayo pamitero yemitero, inofungidzirwa kuti haizoshanduki pa1.5%. Kuverenga kwekutenda kwevatengi kweJapan kuchaongororwa zvakanyanya, kuuya padyo nemutungamiriri wehurumende Abe kudaidza sarudzo, kuchengetedza kwechivimbo kwakakosha kwazvo. PMI yekuvaka PMI ichadhindwa, pa51.1 muna Nyamavhuvhu yakaratidza kukura, zvisinei, izvi zvave zviri kunze kwedanho neUK's data ONS. Vagadziri veUK varikubatira mapurojekiti, nekuda kwekusagadzikana kweBrexit? Manheru manheru kuverenga kwakasiyana siyana nezveAustralia neNew Zealand kuchaburitswa, chinonyanya kuzivikanwa ndeyekuita kweAiG index index.
Chitatu inopupurira mabasa eJapan uye maMPI anowirirana, sezvo misika yeEurope inovhura rafti ye PMIs ine chekuita neEurope inoburitswa, kugadzira, masevhisi uye zvikamu zveFrance, Italy, Germany, Eurozone neUK zvinoburitswa. MaUK angangodaro akatariswa zvakanyanya, zvichipiwa mamiriro eBrexit, masevhisi ari pa53.7 uye mubatanidzwa pa54 yaNyamavhuvhu, inofanirwa kuchengetedzwa. Kana zvisiri ipapo sterling inogona kuuya pasi pekumanikidzwa. Eurozone shopu YoY dhata ichaburitswa, tarisiro ndeyekuti ikozvino huwandu hwe2.6% huenderane. Sekutarisa kwekuchinja kuenda kuUSA, iyo ISM isiri yekugadzira ISM kuverenga inoburitswa, inofungidzirwa kuti ichauya pa55.3 yaGunyana, kuverenga kwakafanana kwakanyorwa muna Nyamavhuvhu. Kwadoka nguva yeEuropean, Janet Yellen, sachigaro weFed, achapa hurukuro pamabhengi enharaunda muSt. Zuva rinopera nedata reJapan zvine chekuita nekutengwa kwemabhondi ekunze nemasheya.
China inovhura nedata reAustralia nezvekutengesa zvekutengesa uye muyero wekutengeserana, nechisarudzo chakaitwa kutanga kwevhiki maererano neAus rate rate, idzi dzakaoma data data dzichatariswa zvakanyanya, kuti vaone kana danho resarudzo raienderana nehupfumi hwese kuita. . Sezvo misika yeEurope yakagadzirira kuvhura, yazvino Swiss CPI metric ichaburitswa, hapana shanduko kubva parizvino 0.5% YoY nhamba inotarisirwa. Kuvaka kweGerman PMI kuchaziviswa, kuverenga kwe54.9 muna Nyamavhuvhu kunofanirwa kuchengetedzwa, Markit icharatidzawo ma PMI ekutengesa eGerman, Eurozone, France neItari. Idhi yakakosha yedata reEurope yezuva rinopera nemushumo wemusangano wapfuura wezvematongerwo enyika wakaburitswa. Iko kune yakasanganiswa yedhata Push (yeyakaomarara uye yakapfava data), kubva kuUSA masikati; Anonetsa kupaza basa, vhiki nevhiki kushaikwa kwemabasa, bhizimusi chiyero, mafekitori maodha, zvinhu zvinogara zvakanaka, nepo vaviri vakuru veFed vachipa hurukuro kumabhangi nemisangano yevashandi.
Chishanu inoburitsa mubairo weJapan nemari yemari, iyo yose yakawira muna Nyamavhuvhu, ese ari maviri anotungamira uye eakaenzana indices yeJapan achaburitswa zvakare. Zvikwata zveGerman mafekitori zvichaburitswa, parizvino zvichimhanyisa pa5% kukura YoY, iwo maMoM manhamba nguva pfupi yadarika akatora mwaka (pasi -0.7% muna Chikunguru), kudzoka mukukura kunotarisirwa. Dhata yekuCanada yazvino yekushaya uye yekushaya basa ichaburitswa, yekumwe kufarira kuri kuuya mwedzi wakatevera bhanga repakati reCanada rakawedzera huwandu hwaro. Iko kushaikwa kwemabasa kwazvino kwe6.2% hakutarisirwe kuchinja.
Iyo yetsika yemwedzi nemwedzi NPF (isiri yepurazi payroll) ichaburitswa neChishanu, chete makumi mashanu emabasa matsva emwedzi waGunyana anotarisirwa, zvakanyanyisa pazasi pe50k yakagadzirwa muna Nyamavhuvhu uye zvakanyanya pazasi peavhareji pamwedzi nhamba yemasekita 156k. Kunyangwe hazvo NFP data risingaburitse mafayawekisi pamwedzi ichangopfuura (kana makore), izvi zvinogona kuchinja kana munhu akaderera akadaro achitora vaongorori nevatengesi nekushamisika. Avhareji yemihoro inofungidzirwa kuti ichakwira ne250%, ichibva kubva ku0.3% munaNyamavhuvhu, izvo zvinogona kuwedzera kukura kwemubairo wepagore, pamusoro pezvino zviripo 0.1% chiyero chekukura.
« Nhaurirano dzeBrexit dzinokonzeresa sterling uye euro kuita whipsaw, sevatyairi veUSA vanozvigadzirisa pachavo kusvika pamitezo isingadzivisike inokwira uye QT PMIs yeUK iyo Eurozone neUSA, pamwe neUSA kuverenga ISM, vanoumba hwaro hwezviitiko zvakakosha zveMuvhuro zvekarenda. »
