VHIKI MARKET SNAPSHOT 21/12 - 24/12 | MASIKO EMASOKO, FX NEZVINHU ZVICHAITWA SEI PANGUVA YEMAXAS?
Vhiki rapfuura Xmas inowanzove nguva yakanyarara yekutengesa muquity, FX, uye misika yezvinhu. Zvisinei, iri harina kunge riri gore rakajairika. 2020 yanga iri tsananguro yegore rechokwadi risinganzwisisike.
Iyo nhamo yeCoronavirus yakatonga pasi redu rekutengeserana kubva munaKurume, uye hapana munhu aigona kufungidzira kuti Black Swan yaizosvika sei, ichidonha kuvimba kwemusika munzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana dzekuchengetedza zvichikonzera zero-ruzhowa.
Asi rutsigiro rwakauya nekukurumidza muchimiro chekusimudzira kukuru kubva kuhurumende dzekumadokero nemabhangi epakati, zvichikurudzira misika yequity kurekodha yakakwira. Iyo SPX 500 yakwira 14.33% gore-kusvika-zuva uye iyo NASDAQ 100 kumusoro inoshamisa uye isina kumboitika 43.83%.
Gore idzva, uye neinoshamisira manejimendi muWhite House
Mumakore achangopfuura vaongorori vazhinji vakasiya mabhaisikopo avo ezvehupfumi uye vakatarisa pazvinhu zvakaita sezviitiko zve macroeconomic uye maTwitter aTrump. Kwechinguva panguva yehutungamiriri, maTweets ake uye kutsika-tsika pasocial media inodzorwa musika inofamba.
Kurwira kusiri madikanwa kwaakatora neChina kwakakonzera misika yemari kuti idonhe kutakura mamiriro emusika mukupera kwa2018 kutanga kwa2019 uye kukosha kweUSD kutsvedza. Akapomera China mari yekubiridzira uye akatanga kurova mutero wakakura pazvinhu zveChinese zvinotengeswa kuAmerica. US equity misika yakaroverwa kune yake whims.
Iwe ungadai wakafunga kuti mumwe munhu angadai akazevezera munzeve yake “VaMutungamiri, VaMutungamiri; hatina chokwadi chekuti izvi zvichashanda, tinotora zvinhu zvedu zvakawanda kubva kuChina, hazvitenge zvakawanda kubva kwatiri, kunze kwekurima soya uye mhuka. Uye kana vakarega kutenga unotsamwisa varimi vawaivimbisa kuchengetedza mumhiko dzako dzesarudzo dza2016 ”.
Chaizvoizvo chimiro, ari kupedzisa nguva yake yakasungirirwa pasi muWhite House achipomera Swiss central bank mari yekushandisa mari, nekuti CHF yakwira ne8.96% maringe neUSD muna 2020. Zvisinei, kutariswa kwakatarisa kune vezera reUS dhora kunofanirwa kuratidza kuna Trump kuti iyo euro yawana chinosvika gumi% maringe nedhora, iyo Aussie iri kumusoro 10%, yen iri kumusoro 9%, uye iyo Dhora Index (DXY) iri pasi -5%. Pamwe, mupfungwa dzake, zvese irangano.
Sevaongorori, tinoedza kuramba tisina rusarura mune zvematongerwo enyika; zvisinei, kana Biden yatanga kuvhurwa muna Ndira 2021, isu tese tinotarisira kutarisira nguva yekugadzikana uye kusagadzikana muUSA. Hapasisinazve zvehondo dzekutengesa, kusvika kuIran, Venezuela neEurope, kudzoreredza kudyidzana kwepasirese, nekubatana neParis shanduko yemamiriro ekunze seyakaenzana.
Kuputira pamusika kwevhiki ino
Kukumbira ruregerero pamberi pekurira senge yakavhuniwa rekodhi asi isu hatisi toga mukuendesa inodzokorodza misika zvinyorwa munguva pfupi yapfuura. Nyaya mbiri hombe dziri kutonga misika; kukurudzira kuri kuda kupihwa mvumo neSeneti yeUS neBrexit.
Iyo yekukurudzira iri padyo nechibvumirano, iyo granular tsananguro inotarisa kuti yakawanda sei munhu mukuru weUS nemwana vanofanirwa kuwana. Vamwe veRepublican Senators vanofunga madhora mazana matanhatu pamunhu mukuru uye madhora mazana mashanu pamwana anofanirwa kukwana nemvumo yekukodzera. Mamwe maSeneta ari kutsimbirira $ 600 pamunhu mukuru uye $ 500 pamwana.
Zvinonakidza kucherechedza kuti $ 2.4 tiririyoni yakatobvumidzwa nehurumende yeUSA nenzira dzakasiyana. Zvinofungidzirwa zvinoratidza kuti kukurudzira kwakabatana kuburikidza neFed uye Treasury (govt) kunogona kunge kwakakwira kunge $ 6 trillion kana 2020 yapera, kukwidza chikwereti cheUS chese chakapfuura 125% v GDP.
Chii chiri chechokwadi, ndechekuti iyo yekukurudzira kubhadhara ichasvika yakanyanyisa kunonoka kubatsira vazhinji maAmerican kunakidzwa nemabiko ebinge. Kutengesa kwekutengesa kwaderera muU.S., uye vashandi vazhinji havasi kushandisa mari vachifunga kuti "zvakanaka, ndichangosimbisa bhanhire rangu muna Ndira" nekuti havana ruzivo rwekuti vachange vari pabasa muna Ndira here.
Mamiriyoni makumi maviri neshanu evakuru veUS vari kuwana fomu yekubatsira kwekushaiwa basa, 60% yedzimba hadzina mari inochengetwa, uye neChina imwe 885K yakawedzerwa kune rejista yevhiki yekushaya basa.
Brexit; havazobvumirani here pachibvumirano mukupera kwesvondo?
Vhiki rapera yaifanirwa kunge iri yekupedzisira episode yeiyo "ndiyo yangu yekupedzisira kupihwa, kuitora kana kuisiya" Brexit saga. Asi nguva yakatarwa yakatsvedza, sezvazvakaita muna Gumiguru naNovember. UK neEU vabvumirana kutaurirana mukupera kwesvondo kuyedza kutsvaga mhinduro.
Isu tese tinoziva kumeso-kunoponesa fudge kuri kuuya, sezvo EU ichipa iyo UK kubuda nenyasha, asi rondedzero yakagadzirirwa kunyengedza huwandu hweUK haigone kufanotaura. Kufungidzira kwakanyanya ndekwekuti chibvumirano chakasununguka, chisina kusunga chinoburitswa, asi chinozadzikiswa kusvika munaNdira kuitira vhoti mukanzuru yeEU. Izvo zvinoita kune iyo Ndira 1 zuva reBrexit ndewe munhu wekufungidzira.
Izvo zvese ndezve optics nehurumende yeUK; vanoda vavhoti vavo kuti vavaone sevanokunda. Asi vagari veku UK vari kurasikirwa nerusununguko rwekufamba, rusununguko madzitateguru avo akarwira kuchengetedza. Kurambana uku kunofanirwa kusanganisira nguva yekuchema kuUK; hapana chekupemberera.
Sterling yakarova munzvimbo dzakasiyana mumavhiki apfuura sezvo kutaurirana kwaenderera, uye runyerekupe rwezvibvumirano zvakabuda. NeChishanu, Zvita 18, GBP / USD yanga ichitengesa pasi -0.58%, ichikwira 2.15% vhiki nevhiki nekuda kwetariro budiriro yakanga yave pedyo.
Iwo maviri emari akatyora iyo 50 DMA kune yakadzikira svondo rapfuura asi yakatengesa pamusoro peiyo nhanho kubva kutanga kwaNovember. Parizvino yakagara pa1.3200 nzvimbo ino makumi mashanu yeDMA uye nhamba yekutenderera inogona kuva tarisiro kana kutaurirana kukadonha pasina chero chibvumirano (zvisinei chisina kusimba) panzvimbo.
Kutariswa kwekutarisa kweEUR / GBP pane chati chezuva nezuva kunoratidza kuti yakakura sei whipsawing renji yanga iri muna Zvita. Pane imwe nhanho svondo rino kuchengetedzeka kwakatsvedza kuburikidza ne100 DMA. Iyo 50 DMA uye iyo 100 DMA yekufa-muchinjikwa yaive padhuze nekuumbika mukati mevhiki senge gwara rekufamba riri pakati rakadzikira. NeChishanu, Zvita 18, EUR / GBP yakatengesa kumusoro 0.39% uye kukwira 6.72% YTD.
Simbi dzinokosha; nzvimbo yekuchengetedza yakachengeteka mukati megore rose
Kana iwe uri mutengesi, hazvigoneke kuti usazvidemba nematengesi ausina kutora gore rino. Hei, dai chete isu takangoenda zvese-mukati paZoom naTesla gore rino panguva yekumira munaKurume kana kutenga iyo NASDAQ 100 sebheji rakachengeteka.
Kuenda kwenguva refu yegoridhe nesirivheri ingadai yakave nzvimbo yekuona zvekubheja kuona mukati memwedzi inotambudza yatakasangana nayo. Senzvimbo dzakachengeteka, ma PM ese akamuka zvakanyanya. Ndarama iri 23% YTD uye sirivheri yakakwira makumi mana nematatu muzana. Musanganiswa wezvese zviri zviviri mari, kungave kwepanyama kana kubudikidza neako broker, yakaratidza kuve rakanakisa ruzhowa.
Sirivheri yanga ichidiwa nekuti ounce i $ 26 uye yakadzika kunge $ 12 kumashure munaKurume. Kuwana madhora chiuru esimbi waive mukana wevazhinji vekuAmerican (vasina chokwadi nezvehurongwa) vanogona kutora mukana wemari shoma zvakadaro. Vazhinji vangangoisa mari vangangove vakaisa mari muBitcoin mugore ra1,000, iyo yasvika pakukwirira kwakawanda mumazuva achangopfuura, ichityora iyo 2020 nhanho.
Zviitiko zvakakwirira zvine chekuita nekutarisa kunze kwevhiki kutanga Zvita 20
Kumhanyira kuXmas kunowanzove svondo rakanyarara renhau dzakakosha dzezvehupfumi. NeChipiri iyo UK inoburitsa ichangoburwa GDP manhamba, ivo vanofungidzirwa kuti vauye vasina kuchinjika kubva yapfuura kota pa15.5% QoQ uye -9.6% YoY.
Kuverenga kweYoY kwaizopa UK seyakaipisisa kuita G7 hupfumi panguva yedenda kunyangwe hazvo GBP matirioni erutsigiro uye 5.5 mamirioni evashandi vachiri kubhadharwa vari pazororo rakawedzerwa-zororo.
Mukupesana, fungidziro yeUSA iri 33% QoQ GDP kukura chiyero, kunyangwe izvo zviri nharo zvinouya nemutengo wakakura; iyo Coronavirus iri kumhanya-mhanya, ichiuraya paavhareji vanhu zviuru zvitatu pazuva. NeChitatu inoona kuburitswa kwemirairo yakasimba yekutengesa kweUSA, mari yemunhu, mari uye dhata nyowani yekutengesa imba, kuverenga uko kuchapa mufananidzo wekuvimba kwevatengi.
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