WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 19/2 - 23/2 | Iyo ichangoburwa GDP kukura nhamba yeUK uye kuburitswa kweFOMC mwero yekumisikidza maminetsi ndiyo ichave yakatariswa zvakanyanya zviitiko zvekarenda muvhiki iri kuuya
Hupfumi hweUK hwaka (zvine nharo) hwakasimudzira zvakanaka kune zvingangoita zvakaipa zveBrexit. Ikozvino YoY kukura huwandu i1.5% uye uku kuri kudonha kubva pamamiririri ari pakati pe2.7% -2.0% iyo nyika yairondedzera muna 2015/2016, hupfumi hweAmagedhoni hwakawanda hwakafanotaurwa mushure mekuvhoterwa kwereferendamu. Nekudaro, neiyi wachi ichinonoka kusvika pazuva rekubuda munaKurume 2019, nzvimbo uye sarudzo dzekutengesa dzinofanirwa kuitwa nemakambani makuru uye manzwiro evatengi anogonawo kutanga kutambura, nekudaro kukura kunogona kuve kwakakanganiswa pamwedzi iri kuuya. Tinogona kutarisira kuita kwakanakisa kana iyo 1.5% nhamba yakavandudzwa, iri kuongororwa nevanoongorora vazhinji. GDP yeGerman nhamba ichauya zvakare kuongororwa, zvinofungidzirwa kuti fungidziro ndeyekuti kuverenga kurambe kwakakwira pa2.90%.
Kunze kwekumhan'ara dzakasiyana PMI uye CPI dhata yehupfumi hwakasiyana uye EZ, chiitiko chakasara chevhiki chinosanganisira kuburitswa kwemaminetsi kubva kumusangano wekupedzisira wemitemo yemari yeFOMC, mushumo uchaongororwa kuti uone chero manzwi anopesana kune FOMC / Fed yazvino fambiro mberi maererano neyakavamba zuva rezvitatu zvakarongwa zinga rekukwira rinokwira ra2018 uye chero ipi inogona kuwanda kuomesa.
Svondo inotanga vhiki yedu ne data kubva kuJapan, kusanganisira yazvino: bhizimusi chiyero, kupinza uye kutumira kunze data. Sekunze mutengesi kunze kwenyika Japan inomhanyisa mari yekutengesa, kwete kushomeka uye kunyangwe paine makwikwi kubva kuChina, USA neGerman, Japan ichiri mutengesi akakosha. Kusvika munaZvita iyo YoY yekukura nhamba yaive yakanakisa 9.3% uye vaongorori vachange vachitsvaga iyi patani yekukura kuti ichengetedzwe.
Muvhuro mangwanani anotanga nemamiriyoni emwedzi emukaka auction metric kubva kuNew Zealand, barometer inocherechedzwa zvine hungwaru nezvehutano hwehupfumi muNZ, zvichipa kuvimba kwenyika ino pachikamu ichi kukura kunze kwenyika. Imba yekutengesa yeUK inoongororwa, Rightmove ichiburitsa yavo yazvino kubvunza ongororo yemutengo mangwanani eMuvhuro mangwanani. Kutenga kwemaJapan mabond kuchauya zvakare kuongororwa, kunyanya sekukura kweGDP kweJapan kwadzikira kusvika pa0.10% QoQ, pamwe ichidzorera chero pfungwa dzekubata mashandiro emusika uye kudzikisira kukurudzira kwemari. Sezvo misika yeEurope yakavhurwa, iyo Eurozone yazvino account yakasara ichaburitswa uye zvivakwa zvekuvaka zvemari imwechete bloc zvichaziviswa zvakare, izvo zvakakwira kusvika kunoshamisa 2.7% YoY muna Zvita.
On Chipiri mangwanani pane sumbu reJapan data rekutarisa, kusanganisira kutengesa kwesupamaketi, dhipatimendi rekutengesa chitoro, zviri nyore chitoro kutengesa uye muchina wekushandisa maodha. Sezvo misika yeEurope inovhurwa, ichangoburwa yeSwitzerland yekungenisa uye yekuburitsa manhamba anosunungurwa, zvichitevera mushumo weGerman mutengo wemugadziri. Tsvagiridzo dzeZEW dzichangoburwa dzinoendeswa, uko kunonyanya kukoshesa kuve kuverenga kwemanzwiro uye zvinotarisirwa. Iyo Eurozone yevatengi kuvimba kuverenga kuverenga kwaFebruary ichaziviswawo. Ichangoburwa UK yekutengesa muviri iyo CBI ichashambadzira ayo azvino maitiro ezvekuodha uye kutengesa mitengo.
On Chitatu mangwanani, mari yemubhadharo yeAustralia uye basa rekuvaka rakaitwa metric zvaburitswa, raft yeJapan mabheji ekutenga mhedzisiro data ichaunzwa zvakare. Iwo ese maindasitiri zviitiko zvekuverenga zvichaburitswa zvakare. Sezvo kutarisisa kuchitendeukira kuEurope masevhisi emwedzi nemwedzi, kugadzira uye masevhisi PMIs eItari, Germany uye hombe EZ ichapa kuverenga kunonakidza. Kubva kuUK sumbu remhedzisiro yekushaikwa kwemabasa, mihoro kukwira, huwandu hwevanhu hwekukwereta uye mari yeruzhinji ichaburitswa. Sezvo misika yeUSA ichivhurika, Maka ma PMI ekugadzirwa kwenyika, masevhisi uye zvinoumbwa zvichaunzwa, metric yekutengesa epamba ichaburitswawo. Vashandi vanozotarisa pakuburitswa kwemaminetsi kubva kumusangano uchangoburwa weFOMC, kunyanya kukosha kwakapihwa iko kusanzwisisika kwemusika uchangoburwa pamusoro peiyo ichangoburwa yeququeti musika wekutengesa uye kudzoka kwakatevera.
China inotanga neNew Zealand kadhi rechikwereti rinoshandisa ruzivo, ese ari maviri YoY uye MoM. Sezvo misika yeEurope inovhurwa, kuverenga kwekupedzisira kweGerman IFO kunoziviswa, sekuSwitzerland maindasitiri anoburitsa. Tarisa ichatendeukira kune ichangoburwa UK GDP kuverenga, pa1.5% YoY vatyairi vachatarisa izvi zvakanyatso tarisa kune chero zviratidzo zvehurongwa hwehupfumi kushomeka. Iyo yazvino kota yekuendesa kunze uye yekuisa dhata kuUK ichatariswa zvakanyanya, pa -0.7% yeQ3 2017, tarisiro yekuti isina kusimba Brexit pondo ingasimudzira kunze kwenyika, inoita kunge isina hwaro.
Mumasikati akabatikana eUSA nhau yezvehupfumi, iyo vhiki nevhiki mvumo yekushaya basa uye inoramba ichitsvaga data ichaongororwa nekuda kwebasa uye mubairo wekukwira data iri musoro unopisa wevatengesi. Iyo yazvino mafuta uye peturu data ichauya zvakare kuongororwa, sezvo WTI ichangobva kunyudzwa pasi pe $ 60 dhiramu. Zuva rinopedzisa nemaJapan azvino ekupedzisira eCPI manhamba uye gore pagore, iyo YoY manhamba anotarisirwa kuuya mu1.0% YoY kusvika munaNdira.
On Chishanu izvo zvichangoburwa zvekuJapan zvisungo zvichatariswa zvakaringana, sezvo misika yeEuropean inovhura sumbu reGerman data inosanganisira kudiwa, kushandisa mari, kudyara uye kushandiswa izvo zvichanyatso kutariswa, sezvichazove zvichangoburwa kupinza, kutumira kunze uye GDP manhamba. Yazvino Eurozone CPI nhamba inogona kupa zviyeuchidzo nezve kunonoka kweECB kunofanirwa kudzora paAPP mari yekurerutsa. Canada iri munhau, sezvo nhepfenyuro dzenyika dzekupedzisira dzeCPI dzichitepfenyurwa. Zviitiko zvekarenda zvevhiki zvinopera neBaker Hughes rig kuverenga, metric yaigaro tariswa, zvine chekuita nemutengo weWTI mafuta.
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