USA basa uye dambudziko rekushaya basa richaongororwa svondo rinouya, sekuverenga kwekupedzisira kweNFP kwegore ra2017
Karenda yedu yezvehupfumi inotanga kutora chimiro chinozikanwa svondo rinouya seyedu: FX, kuenzana uye misika yezvigadzirwa yakazopedzisira yadzokazve muhupenyu, mushure meXmas uye zororo regore idzva. Ipo paine kusangana kwezvepasi rose kwe PMI kuverenga kwakaburitswa na: Markit, Caixan neU.SA zvakaenzana neiyo ISM mukati mevhiki, rinotarisisa svondo iri pamabasa nekushaikwa kwemabasa, kunyanya USA manhamba emabasa.
Vhiki rinopera nenhamba dzeNFP dzemwedzi nemwedzi uye pane yakafungidzirwa 180k muna Zvita, vaongorori nevatengesi vanogona kuona nhamba iyi seinoodza moyo, zvichipiwa mabasa echinguvana mwaka wezororo aifanira kunge akagadzira. Anonetsa kupererwa nebasa, nhamba dzebasa dzeADP, zvirevo zvitsva zvekushaikwa kwemabasa uye zvirevo zvinopfuurira zvichaburitswa. Zvisinei, pane imwe metric iyo inowanzo kufuratirwa muruzha; huwandu hwevashandi hwekutora chikamu chevakuru muUSA, inova circa 62%. Icho chokwadi chinotemesa moyo; kuti vangangoita vana muvanhu vakuru gumi muUSA vane hupfumi husina basa / vasingashande / vadzima grid, hausi iwo mhando yechimiro chaungatarisira kuti hupfumi huri kusimuka kunyoresa.
Svondo inotanga svondo neChina yekugadzira uye isiri yekugadzira ma PMI, fungidziro ndeyekuti manhamba ese arambe ari padyo nemanhamba akaburitswa munaNovember uye akapa chinzvimbo cheChina seinjini yepasi rose yekukura kwekukura, huwandu hunofungidzirwa hwekugadzira pa51.7 huchagara huri padhuze inoongororwa nevatengesi nevanoongorora, kune chero zviratidzo zvekushaya simba.
Muvhuro (zuva regore idzva) izuva rakanyarara kwazvo renhau dzezvehupfumi, iro rinonyanya kuburitswa manhamba etairi yemukaka kubva kuNew Zealand. Kune vatengesi ve kiwi dollar aya manhamba akakosha nekuda kwenzvimbo yenyika seanonyanya kutengesa mukaka kuAsia. Dhata reAustralia rakaburitswa pazuva riine iyo yazvino PMI yaZvita uye neAiG mashandiro ekugadzira indekisi.
Kamwe neChipiri kwasvika, ruzivo rwedu rezvehupfumi runotanga kudzoka pane zvakajairika sezuva rakabatikana renhau dzakakosha dzinounzwa. Zviverengero zvekuGerman zvekutengesa zvinofanirwa kuratidza 1% kukura munaNovember (gore rega uye MoM), kusimudzira pane zvisiri izvo zvakaburitswa muna Gumiguru. Raft yeEurozone inogadzira PMIs munaDecember inoburitswa, neFrance, Germany, Italy uye huwandu hwenzvimbo dzeEurozone dzinotarisirwa kuramba dziri padhuze nekusachinja. Ipo iyo UK PMI nhamba inofanirwa kuratidzira kudonha kubva ku58.2 kusvika 57.9. Sekutarisa kukazotendeukira kuNorth America, Canada yaDecember PMI inoratidzwa, sezvakaita USA PMI kubva kuMarkit.
Chitatu chinotanga nenhamba dzichangoburwa dzekutengesa mota kubva kuUSA, ichigara chiri chiratidzo chekugona kwevatengi veUS, kuvimba uye chishuwo chekutora chikwereti chitsva chikuru chechikwereti. Iyo ichangoburwa yeSwitzerland yekugadzira PMI yaZvita inosunungurwa, sezvakaita nhamba yekushaikwa kwemabasa kweZvita kuGerman, ine huwandu hwehuwandu hwakafungidzirwa kusimudzira kusvika 5.5%. Iyo UK yekuvaka PMI muna Zvita inofungidzirwa kuti icharamba isina kuchinjika pa53.1, nepo mari yekuvaka muUSA ichifungidzirwa kuti ingawira mwaka kusvika ku0.7% munaNovember. Yakakwira mhedzisiro dhata kuburitswa kweUSA pazuva iri ndeiyi: ISM yekugadzira kuverenga kweDecember inotarisirwa kuramba isina kuchinjika pa58.2, iyo ISM basa metric uye kuburitswa kwemaminetsi kubva kumusangano iyo FOMC yakaitwa muna Zvita, kwavakatora danho kukwidza huwandu hwechimbadzo kusvika pa1.5%.
China izuva rakabatikana zvakanyanya renhau rezvehupfumi, asi zvakadaro, mazhinji ekuburitswa akaderera kusvika pakati nepakati. China yazvino masevhisi uye macomposite eCaixan PMIs achaburitswa, sezvichazoita yekuJapan yekugadzira PMI. Sezvo kutarisisa kuchitendeukira kuEurope, iyo UK imba yemutengo indekisi yakaburitswa neNationalwide ichaburitswa, tarisiro ndeyekusimuka kwe0.2% muna Zvita kunyoresa 2% YoY kukwira. Sumbu remasevhisi uye akaumbanidzwa PMIs eEurozone nyika uye iyo Eurozone zvakanyatso kuburitswa, nevazhinji vanotarisirwa kuratidza kushoma kana kusaita shanduko kubva mukuverenga kwaNovember. Iyo UK central bank iyo BoE inoburitsa yayo yaNovember metric pa: mambure kukwereta, mogeji kukweretesa uye kupa mari. Tarisiro inochengetwa kuUK sezvo masevhisi achangoburwa uye macomputer eMarkit PMIs ari kuburitswa, nemasevhisi akafungidzirwa kuti agadzirise zvine mwero kusvika 54.1, kubva pa53.8.
Sezvo kutarisisa kuchitendeukira kumusika weUSA kuvhura tarisiro iri pamabasa, kunyanya nenhamba dzeNFP dzinofanirwa kuburitswa pazuva rinotevera, Chishanu. Idzo ADP mabasa manhamba anoburitswa, sezvakangoita anopokana nebasa kuderedzwa, zvazvino kushaikwa kwemabasa uye zvirevo zvinoenderera zveUSA zvichaburitswa zvakare. Iko kusanganiswa kweaya metric kunogona kupa chiratidzo chekuti kunyatso kufanotaura kweNFP kukura kwebasa muna Zvita kunoratidza kuve. Rino kuburitswa kwezuva rakakosha dhata rinopera neJapan mari yemari uye zvikwereti uye dhisikaundi data.
Chishanu chinopupurira kuburitswa kweiyero yeAustralia yemabhadharo manhamba, masevhisi eJapan achangoburwa uye maMPI anoumbwa anoratidzwa Sezvo tarisiro inotendeukira kumisika yeEurope 'yakavhurika, boka revatengesi ma PMI emarudzi anotungamira eEurozone rinoburitswa, Italy, France, Germany uye yakafara Eurozone, nepo metric yekuvaka yeGerman ichiziviswa zvakare. Yazvino Eurozone CPI nhamba inofungidzirwa kuti ichauya pa1.4%, kudonha kudiki kubva ku1.5%.
Zvinyorwa zveNorth America zvinyorwa zvinotanga neCanada ichangoburwa nhamba yekushaikwa kwemabasa, inotarisirwa kuuya mu5.9% ine chiyero chekutora chikamu che65.7%. Kubva kuUSA tinogamuchira izvozvi nhamba dzeNFP, nerubatsiro rweBSS (Bureau yehuwandu hwevashandi). Kufanotaura ndekwekuti 185k mabasa akagadzirwa muna Zvita, kudonha kubva ku228k yakagadzirwa munaNovember. Huwandu hwevashandi hwekutora chikamu hunofungidzirwa kuti huchauya pa62.7%, nehuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa hunofanirwa kuramba husina kuchinjika pa4.1%. Avhareji maawa evhiki nevhiki uye mubairo unowanikwa muUSA, zvinotarisirwa kuramba zvakaenzana nenhamba dzaNovember uye kuratidza kushanduka.
Iyo USA yekutengesa chiyero chiyero chaNovember inofungidzirwa kuvandudza zvishoma kusvika - $ 48b, maodha akasimba munaNovember anofungidzirwa kuti acharamba ari padyo ne 1.3% nhamba yakaburitswa munaGumiguru, nepo ISM isiri yekugadzira / yekuverenga masevhisi inofungidzirwa kuratidza kusimuka kudiki. kusvika 57.5. Idhata yeUSA vhiki nevhiki inopera neBaker Hughes rig kuverenga, ichiratidza mashandiro epamba kugadzirwa kwemafuta enyika. Mumwe mushandi weFed, VaHarker, vachapa hurukuro kumisangano miviri, vanhu vake maonero ehupfumi pamwe nekubatana kwemitemo.
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