Nhamba dzekupedzisira dzekuwedzera kwezvinhu kuChina neUSA dzichatariswa kwazvo, muvhiki rekutanga rakazara rekutengesa ra2018.
Yekutanga yakazara yekutengesa vhiki ye2018 inopupurira kudzoka kune echinyakare ehupfumi zviitiko zvezviitiko zvichiita edu: FX, equity uye zvigadzirwa zvemisika. Isvondo rakabatikana reChinese, USA uye nedata reEuropean, kusanganisira huwandu hwekuwedzera mitengo, kunyanya kuChina neUSA. Nhamba dzekupedzisira dzekugadzirwa kweUK dzichaongororwa zvakanak, kune chero zviratidzo zvekuenzaniswa kweupfumi muhupfumi sezvo yakatarisana neBrexit kutanga kwa2019.German ichangoburwa kupinza uye kutumira kunze kwenyika ichaburitswa, pamwe nekukura kwayo kwekugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri, ayo anoongororwa zvakanyanya kune chikamu cheGerman seinjini yekukura muEurope. Iwo akasiyana maPPI metric eUSA anozoburitswa, ayo anogona kuendesa ekutanga zviratidzo maererano nechero kuwedzera mitengo yehupfumi muUSA hupfumi.
Svondo inotanga svondo neinowanikwa ichangoburwa matura enzvimbo kuChina, tarisiro ndeye kudonha kudiki kune $ 3,115b muna Zvita. Musi weMuvhuro mangwanani tinogamuchira yazvino YoY yekudyara metric kubva kuChina, parizvino pa90.7% pane tarisiro shoma yeshanduko ipi neipi. Mahofisi eGerman mafekitori akaratidzira inokurudzira kukura kwegore negore kwe6.9% kusvika munaNovember 2017, tarisiro ndeyekuti nhamba iyi ichengetedzwe. Swiss CPI parizvino iri kumhanya pa0.8%, chiyero chingangoshanduke kana kukosha kwaZvita kwaburitswa. Yakasanganiswa nezvazvino kuona dhipoziti kubva kumabhangi eSwitzerland, ese ari maviri manhamba anogona kukanganisa kukosha kweiyo Swiss franc, kana metric ikarasikirwa kana yakanyanya fungidziro.
Sumbu rekuverenga kuverenga kweEurozone rakaburitswa neMuvhuro; mutengi, maindasitiri, bhizinesi uye muzvinashawo, kunyange hazvo akanyatsoiswa pamwero seakaderera, kuverenga kwakazara kunoongororwa zvakanyanya. Kutengesa kwekutengesa muEurozone kwakadzika munzvimbo isina kunaka munaNovember, kuverenga kwaDecember kunofanirwa kuve kwakanaka uye kuve nekugogodza pamhedzisiro yekusimudza iyo YoY nhamba, pamusoro pe0.4% yakanyorwa munaNovember. Sezvo kutarisisa kuchichinjira kuUSA kuverenga kwakakosha kwezuva iri chikwereti chevatengi; akafanotaura kuwira ku $ 18b munaNovember kubva ku $ 20.5b muna Gumiguru. Huwandu hwemwedzi unouya hunogona kuwedzera, nekuda kwemwaka wezororo mutengi anoshandisa.
Chipiri inotanga nekutengesa imba kubva kuNZ, iyo yakadonha neinoshamisa -8.9% YoY kusvika munaZvita. MaJapan chaiwo emari yemari mihoro anotarisirwa kunge aenda zvisina kunaka munaNovember pa -0.1%. Nemari yekuwana mari kumusoro kwe0.6% YoY. Kuvimba kwevatengi muJapan kunofungidzirwa kuti kuchakwira zvishoma kusvika pa45. Kubvumidzwa kwekuvaka kweAustralia kwakawedzera zvakanyanya YoY, kukwira 18.4% kusvika Mbudzi, nhamba ichangoburwa yaZvita haitarisirwi kudzikira zvakanyanya. Kuverenga kwaDecember kwekushaya basa kwevaSwitzerland kunofungidzirwa kuti kucharamba kusingachinjike pa3.2%, kutengesa kwekutengesa kwakaderera zvakanyanya muSwitzerland munaNovember, pasi -3%, kusimudzira kwemwaka kunotarisirwa.
Chigadzirwa cheGerman maindasitiri asina kutarisirwa akawira munaNovember ne -1.4%, uye 2.7% YoY, kugadzirisa kuri kutarisirwa. YeGerman yaNovember yekutengesa zviyero uye yazvino account yakawandisa inofungidzirwa kuvandudza pamusoro peanofungidzirwa € 18b Gumiguru kuverenga. Izvo zvichangoburwa kunze kwenyika uye zvinounzwa metric zveGerman zvakaburitswa zvakare. Yazvino Eurozone urovha hwehuwandu huri parizvino pa8.8%, yakanyanya kusvika padanho raNovember mwero inofungidzirwa kuti icharamba isina kuchinja.
Musi weChitatu sumbu reChinese data rakaburitswa, kusanganisira zvikwereti zvakaitwa muYuan muna Zvita uye ichangoburwa CPI nhamba, parizvino iri pa1.7% fungidziro ndeyekusimuka kusvika 1.9%. Yakakwira kukanganisa data reChinese riri kuita zvishoma kushomeka kwepasi rose uye misika yeFX nguva pfupi yapfuura, kunze kwekunge iyo nhamba yakaburitswa ishamhu. Sezvo kutarisisa kuchinjikira kumisika yeEurope 'yakavhurika, maminetsi emusangano uchangoburwa weECB yemari / yemitengo yekumisikidza anodhindwa, varimi vanozoongorora zvirimo kune chero kutungamira kwekutungamira, zvine chekuita nekuderedzwa kweAPP (chirongwa chekutenga kweaseti), pamusoro uye pamusoro pezvipikirwa zvakatoitwa, kana zviyeuchidzo zvine chekuita nemitero yemitero inokwira muna 2018.
Icho chikamu chakabatikana zvakanyanya che data reUK neChitatu, manhamba pa: maindasitiri, kugadzira uye kuvaka zvigadzirwa zvinogona kuratidza uye kunonoka Brexit kusahadzika nekukuvara. Kusakwana kwakasiyana kwekutengeserana kwekushomeka kwaNovember kwakaburitswawo kuUK, sezvazviri fungidziro yaZvita NIESR yekuUK kukura kweGDP, fungidziro yapfuura yaive 0.5% QoQ.
Chitatu zvakare izuva rakabatikana zvakanyanya kune USA marezinari ezvehupfumi zvinyorwa uye zviitiko; kupinza mitengo, mitengo yekunze kwenyika, zvivakwa zvekutengesa nekutengesa. Zvazvino zvisina kugadzirwa uye gasi zvinyorwa kusvika muna Ndira 5 zvichaburitswa zvakare uye neWTI ichityora $ 61 pabharani kekutanga kubvira 2015, huwandu hwemafuta huchaongororwa zvakanyanya. USA Fed mukuru Bullard achapa hurukuro maonero ehupfumi eUSA, muSt.
China inopupurira nhamba dzichangoburwa dzekutengesa dzeNovember dzeAustralia dzakaburitswa, dzinotarisirwa kuendesa kuverenga kwakaenzana ne0.5% yekukura kwakaratidzwa munaGumiguru. Zvazvino zvekutengesa zvisungo zveJapan zvichaitika nemusi weChina mangwanani, zvichizotevera zvinotungamira uye zvinowirirana zviyereso zveJapan zvinoburitswa. Kuverengwa kweGerman kwegore kweGDP kweDecember kunofungidzirwa kuramba kusingachinjike, kubva kuazvino 1.9% kuverenga, nepo Eurozone maindasitiri ekugadzira YoY kukura nhamba munaNovember inofanirwa kusvika padyo ne3.7% yakambonyorwa kare. Iyo UK BoE ichaendesa yayo yazvino mamiriro echikwereti uye zvikwereti ongororo, vaongorori vemusika nevashambadzi vachakwenya kuburikidza nekuburitsa uye vanoteerera zvirimo zvakanyatsonaka, kutungamira kwekutungamira nhungamiro yekuti mabhengi epakati anoona sei kukanganisa kweBrexit paUK hupfumi uye matanho api anogona kubhangi kuita kudzikisira chero kukuvara.
Kubva kuUSA tinogamuchira izvo zvazvino, zviverengero zvakasiyana zvePPI, zvichiratidza kana USA iri kuvaka chero inflation yekumanikidza kana kukurumidza kuburikidza nemutengo wakakwira wekupinza kunze kwenyika, nokudaro ichiwedzera mitengo yekugadzira. Yekutanga isina basa uye inoramba isina basa zvirevo data ichaburitswawo, uye manheru manheru Fed mukuru Dudley anoendesa hurukuro pane yakazara hupfumi maonero eUSA.
Chishanu mangwanani, panguva yechirongwa cheAsia, China ichangoburwa manhamba pa: kupinzwa kunze kwenyika, kutengeswa kunze uye chiyero chekutengeserana muna Zvita zvakare zvakaburitswa Raft yedata pane hupfumi hweUSA inoburitswa masikati, kusanganisira zvazvino, akasiyana manhamba eCPI, zvese pamwedzi uye pagore. Parizvino iri kumhanya pa2.2% uye 1.7% (kusanganisa chikafu uye simba), aya manhamba achatariswa zvakanyanya kuti aone kana inflation ichiwedzera munguva pfupi, ichakurudzira FOMC / Fed kukwidza mitengo zvisati zvambofungidzirwa muna 2018. kudonha kusvika ku0.3% muna Zvita, kubva pa0.8% muna Mbudzi. Dhata rezvinhu zvebhizinesi richaburitswa uye svondo rekutengesa rinovhara neBaker Hughes rig kuverenga, iri kuongororwa, nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yemafuta yeWTI mumavhiki apfuura.
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