Ndarama Kumusoro paDraghi - Pasi paUS GDP Nhasi
Pane iro raizove chinyararire Chishanu kusvika kupera kwemwedzi, nemwedzi yekupedzisira data svondo rinotevera rakashandurwa nemazwi akareruka kubva kuMutungamiri weECB Draghi, achiti iyo ECB yaisazogara pasi nekubvumidza mubatanidzwa wemari kudonha. Naizvozvi, misika yakaenda nengozi dzeballistic dzakabuda nepahwindo uye eco data uye kuwana zvakashayikwa. Vanofungidzira vaive vakaita semabhiza pagedhi, vangomirira chiratidzo chekutanga.
Base simbi dziri kutengesa kumusoro ne0.3 kusvika 1.1 muzana paLME yemagetsi chikuva inotsigirwa neakasimba eAsia equities. Mushure mekudzoka kwemazuva mana akateedzana, iyo equities yakadzokera zvakare kunzvimbo yakanaka nekuda kwekuwedzera tarisiro mushure mekunge ECB yaratidza chisarudzo chayo chekudzivirira Euro-zone. Kwayedza mambakwedza eAsia kuburitswa kwekutengesa kubva kuJapan kwakaramba kuchibvumirana nepo maChinese maindasitiri mhindu achiramba ari patenthook uye anogona kuramba achitsigira zvakadzikira zvesimbi zasi.
Kupfuurirazve, tarisiro yemisika yatama kubva kuEurope kuenda kuUS uye iyo GDP kuburitswa ichaonekwa pamusangano wanhasi. Pakati pevhiki, misika yakaramba isina kusimba nekuda kwekudzikira kweEuro-zone, nepo parizvino zviwanikwa zvinoonekwa kumashure kwekutsigirwa kubva kuECB. Nekudaro, zvakafanana nezvinhu zvine njodzi senge equities base simbi dzinogona kuramba dzakasimba kusvika musangano weEuropean.
Nekudaro, kutarisira kwehupfumi hweUnited States kubvumirana kunogona kuenderera mberi nekudzikisira nemanheru. Kupfuurirazve, iyo Euro inogona kushomeka nekuwedzera kukwira uye ichanyanya kushanduka zvakanyanya sekushuva kutora purofiti kubhucha kumashure kwekukwira kwemitengo yeGerman. Kupfuurirazve, pamberi pesvondo rinotevera Euro inogona kuramba isina kusimba sezvo hurukuro dzebhajeti yechiGreek dzichigumburwa uye dzinogona kuramba dzichitsigira zvakaderera muchikamu chanhasi. Kubva kuUS, iko kunwiwa kwevanhu kunogona kubvumirana sezvo vagari vemuUS vanodya zvishoma pane zvavanowana apo chivimbo cheMichigan chingangodzikirawo kumashure kwesimba kweGDP inotarisirwa uye inogona kuramba ichinetesa simbi. Kumashure kwekuburitswa kwehupfumi hwapfuura, iyo US inogona kukura zvishoma zvishoma nepo chero kutsauka kubva kune imwechete kunogona kuramba kuchitsigira zviwanikwa musimbi simbi nekudaro kungwarira kunofanirwa kuchengetedzwa kwezuva.
Kumashure kwechivimbiso cheECB chekuchengetedza iyo Euro, mafungiro emusika zvino asanduka kuita zvakanaka izvo zvinotarisirwa kuenderera mberi nekutsigira musika wezvemari. Panzvimbo iyi, goridhe richiri kumisikidza rally yezuva sezvo chikamu chekutanga cheGlobex chisina kuona pfuma yakawanda musimbi, pamwe nekuda kwekuwedzera kwenjodzi yekuda kwevanosima mari.
Euro iri kutsigira rally sezvo goho richipararira muEurope rakagogodzwa pasi neSpanish goho rakadonhedza pasi pazasi pe6.5%. Pfungwa dzakanaka saka dzinogona kuchengetedza mari yakagovaniswa pane noti yakasimba iyo inotsigira goridhe nhasi.
Zvakare, kukwira kwemitengo kweJapan kwakapinda munzvimbo isina kunaka, zvichiratidza padanho rekushomeka iyo BOJ inofanirwa kutsvaga kurerutsa izvo zvaigona kumanikidza Yen kuzasi.
Zvinotonyanya kukosha, chikamu chanhasi chingangotungamirwa nenhamba yeGDP yeUS pamwe nechimwe chikamu chayo, kudyiwa kwemunhu. Pamwe chete nemhinduro yakanaka kubva kuECB, chibvumirano chinotarisirwa muUS GDP kubva pa1.9% kusvika pamatanho e1.4-1.7% zvinogona kudzima chivimbo chakanangana nekuurayiwa kwekuburitswa kwehupfumi kweUS izvo zvakatoratidza kuderera kwehupfumi mamiriro. Izvi zvakadaro zvichange zvichitsigira simbi yeyero nepo kudhindwa kwakanyanya kwe1.4% kuchizonyengetedza Fed kuti iwane kurerukirwa pamusangano wayo uri kuuya muna Chikunguru 31. Kunyangwe kana nhamba iyi ichitarisirwa kuti iuye pasi pekufungidzirwa kwe1.9-2.4%, mukana wedhora kutengesa-kure kumuka izvo zvinofanirwa kuwedzera kutarisira kweQE-3. Sezvo isu tatoona iyo isina kusimba dzimba chikamu pamwe neinononoka mabasa kuwedzerwa, isu tinotarisira iyo isina kusimba mamiriro ehupfumi eUS achange achitsigira goridhe.
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