Elliot Wave Dzidziso uye Kupenga kweVazhinji
Muongorori ane mukurumbira uye nyanzvi yemusika Robert Prechter akasangana nebasa raRalph Elliott achishanda sehunyanzvi pamusika kubhangi rekudyara Merrill Lynch. Kukurumbira kwake semufemberi, panguva yemusika wenzombe wema1980, kwakaunza kuratidzwa kukuru pabasa raElliott.
Prechter anoramba ari muongorori anozivikanwa kwazvo weElliott. Robert Prechter ndiye munyori uye co-munyori wemabhuku gumi nemana, rake bhuku "Kunda Kuputsika" raive New York Times rakanyanya kutengesa. Akaburitsa tsananguro yake yemari yemwedzi nemwedzi mugwaro retsamba "The Elliott Wave Theorist" kubva 14 uye ndiye muvambi weElliott Wave International. Prechter akashanda pabhodhi reMarket Technicians Association kwemakore mapfumbamwe. Mumakore achangopfuura Prechter akatsigira kudzidza kwemajoni, dzidziso pamusoro pehunhu hwemagariro evanhu.
Ralph Elliott aive accountant ane hunyanzvi, uyo akawana hunhu hwemagariro uye akavandudza maturusi eiyo yakazozivikanwa seElliot Wave Musimboti muma1930. Akakurudzira kuti mitengo yemusika iratidzike nenzira dzinozivikanwa, idzo varapi nhasi vanodana Elliott mafungu, kana kungoti "mafungu". Elliott akaburitsa dzidziso yake yehunhu hwepamusika mubhuku "The Wave Principle" muna 1938 ndokurifukidza zvakazara mubasa rake guru, "Mitemo Yezvisikwa: Chakavanzika Chenyika" muna 1946. Elliott akataura kuti "nekuti munhu ari pasi petsika , kuverenga kune chekuita nezviitiko zvake kunogona kuratidzirwa kure kumberi nekururamisa uye chokwadi kusingazosvikike ".
Iyo Elliott Wave Musimboti rondedzero yakadzama uye 'fomula' yemabatiro anoita mapoka evanhu uye semhedzisiro. EWP inoratidza kuti sainzi psychology inokonzeresa kubva mukusava netariro kune tariro uye nekudzoka mune yakasarudzika rhythmic kuteedzana, nokudaro ichigadzira yakatarwa uye inogona kuyerwa mapatani. Iyo Elliott Wave Nheyo inogona kunyatsoonekwa 'kubasa' mumisika yezvemari, uko kuchinjisa investor psychology yakanyorwa nenzira yekufamba kwemitengo. Kana iwe uchikwanisa kuona iyo inodzokorodza mapatani emitengo uye woona kuti mutengo uripi mune iwo anodzokorora mapatani iwe unogona netarisiro kufanotaura (aine anonzwisisika mazinga eanogona) uko mutengo unonanga unotevera
Iyo EWP iri, zvakadaro, ichiri zvakanyanyisa iko kurovedza mukugona. Elliottician mumwe munhu anokwanisa kuona mamiriro emisika uye kutarisira danho rinotevera rinotevera zvichibva pachinzvimbo chiri mukati meaya masisitimu. Nekuziva iwo mafungu emafungu, iwe unozoziva izvo misika ingangoite inotevera uye zvakatonyanya kukosha izvo zvavangazoite zvinotevera. Nekushandisa EWP zvinokwanisika kuona mafambiro epamusoro-soro ane njodzi shoma.
Mumutengo wemusika wemhando yeElliott unosiyana pakati pechisimba chechinangwa chechikamu uye chikamu chekugadzirisa pane zviyero zvese zvezviitiko. Mafungiro akaparadzaniswa kuita seti yemasaisai mashanu epasi, achichinjanisa pakati pechinangwa uye kugadzirisa hunhu, mafungu 5, 1, uye mashanu mafungiro, uye mafungu 3 ne5 madiki anotora mafungu 2 ne4. Mafungu ekugadzirisa anopatsanurwa kuita matatu mafungu madiki anotanga neashanu-wave counter-trend impulse, kudzokorora, uye kumwe kukurudzira. Mumisika yebhebhe maitiro akakurisa ari pasi, saka pateni inodzoserwa, mafungu mashanu pasi uye matatu kumusoro. Mafungu anokurudzira anogara achifamba nemuitiro, nepo mafungu ekugadzirisa achifamba achipikisana nawo.
WAVES
Maitiro mashanu eWave; Yakakurumbira Trend
Wave 1:
Wave imwe inogona kuve yakaoma kuziva painotanga. Kana fungu rekutanga remusika wenzombe nyowani ratanga nyaya dzakakosha dzinowanzova dzisina kunaka. Iyo yapfuura maitiro anga achiri kushanda. Sentiment ongororo ndeye bearish. Vhoriyamu inogona kuwedzera sekukwira kwemutengo, asi kwete nemumuganhu wakaringana kuzivisa vaongorori vehunyanzvi.
Wave 2:
Wave maviri anoruramisa wave imwe, asi haimbopfuuri kupfuura pekutanga pewave imwe. Sezvo mutengo unodzosera yapfuura yakaderera, mafungiro emagetsi ari kuvaka, zviratidzo zvakanaka zvinoonekwa kune avo vari kutsvaga. Vhoriyamu inofanirwa kuve yakaderera panguva yekuzunguzwa maviri pane panguva yekuzunguzirwa imwe, mitengo kazhinji haidzore zvinopfuura 61.8% yeFibonacci yemafungu ekuwana imwe, mutengo unofanirwa kuwira mumatatu mafungu.
Wave 3:
Wave vatatu kazhinji ndiyo hombe uye yakasimba kwazvo wave mune inoitika. Nhau idzi dzave dzakanaka. Mutengo unokwira nekukurumidza, chero zvigadziriso ndezvenguva pfupi uye zvisina kudzika. Sezvo wave matatu anotanga nhau angangodaro achiri e-bearish, uye vatambi vazhinji vemusika vanoramba vasina kunaka; asi ne wave wave midpoint, "boka revanhu" rinowanzo kujoina iyo nyowani nyowani yekusimudzira.
Wave 4:
Wave mana anowanzo gadzirisa. Mutengo unogona kufamba uchienda padivi kwenguva yakareba, uye wave mana kazhinji anodzosera pazasi peiyo 38.2% Fibonacci yemasaisai matatu. Vhoriyamu iri pazasi peiyo wave matatu. Iyi inogona nzvimbo yakanaka yekutenga yekudzokera kumashure, echina mafungu anogona kazhinji kuve anoshungurudza nekuda kwekushayikwa kwavo kufambira mberi mune yakakura maitiro.
Wave 5:
Wave mashanu ndiro gumbo rekupedzisira munzira yekufambisa. Nhau dzinenge dzese dzakanaka uye wese munhu ari kukwidziridzwa. Apa ndipo apo vatengesi vazhinji vanozopedzisira vatenga mukati chaimo musati wasvika kumusoro. Vhoriyamu inowanzo kudzikira mu wave mashanu pane mu wave matatu, uye mazhinji maimisheni ekumusoro anogona kuratidza kusiyanisa (mutengo unosvika pakakwirira nyowani, asi izvo zvinongedzo hazvisvike panhongonya nyowani).
Muenzaniso weTatu Wave. Maitiro Ekugadzirisa
Wave A:
Kugadziriswa kwakaomarara kuti kuone pane kukurumidza kufamba. Mumasaisa A emusika webhebhe, nhau dzichiri dzakanaka. Zviratidzo zvehunyanzvi zvinoperekedza wave A zvinosanganisira kuwedzera vhoriyamu.
Wave B:
Mutengo unodzosera kumusoro vazhinji vanoona izvi sekutangazve kweiyo zvino yaenda nzombe musika. Ivo vanoziva neyekutanga tekinoroji yekuongorora vanogona kuona iyo yepamusoro seyakakodzera fudzi remusoro nemapfudzi ekuchinja maitiro. Iyo vhoriyamu panguva yemafungu B inofanira kunge yakadzikira pane muwaveji A. Zvinokosha pamwe zvinenge zvisisiri kusimukira, kazhinji hazvisati zvashanduka zvisina kunaka.
Wave C:
Mutengo unofamba uchidzikisira pasi mumafungu mashanu. Vhoriyamu inotora, uye negumbo rechitatu remafungu C musika webheya wakadzika midzi. Wave C ingangoita yakakura kunge wave A.
MITEMO EWP
Pane mitemo mitatu mikuru inodikanwa kuturikira Elliott Wave. Pane zvakawanda zvinongedzo, asi chete mitatu 'yakaoma uye inokurumidza' mitemo isingatyorwe. Nongedzo inoenderana nekududzirwa. Iyi mitemo inoshanda chete kune 5 wave impulse kuteedzana. Iyo yekugadzirisa, iyo yakanyanya kuomarara, inopihwa yakawanda mukana kana zvasvika pakududzira.
MITEMO
Mutemo 1: Wave 2 haigone kudzosera inopfuura 100% yeWave 1.
Mutemo 2: Wave 3 haigone kuve ipfupi pane matatu mafungu ekufungidzira.
Mutemo 3: Wave 4 haigoni kumbopindirana Wave 1.
GUIDELINES
- Nongedzo 1: Kana Wave 3 ndiyo yekurebesa yekufungidzira wave, Wave 5 inenge yakaenzana Wave 1.
- Nongedzo 2: Mafomu eWave 2 uye Wave 4 anozoshandura. Kana Wave 2 iko kururamisa kwakapinza, Wave 4 ichave kururamisa kwakapfava. Kana Wave 2 yakati sandara, Wave 4 ichave yakapinza.
- Nongedzo 3: Mushure me5-wave kufungidzira kusati kwaitika, zvigadziriso (abc) zvinowanzo kupera munzvimbo yeiyo yekutanga Wave 4 yakaderera.
Pakati pevashandi vepamusika, kuongororwa kwemasaisai kunogamuchirwa kwakawanda sechimwe chikamu chekutengeserana kwavo. EWP iri pavanoongorora vaongorori vanofanirwa kupfuura kuti vawane iyo Chartered Market Technician (CMT) kudomwa, iyo nyanzvi yekubvumidzwa inogadzirwa neMarket Technicians Association (MTA).
Robin Wilkin, Ex-Global Musoro weFX uye Commodity technical Strategy kuJPMorgan Chase; "Elliott Wave musimboti inopa mukana wekuti inguva ipi yekupinda mumusika uye kupi kwekubuda, kungave kwepundutso kana kurasikirwa."
Jordan Kotick, Global Musoro wehunyanzvi Strategic kuBarclays Capital uye Mutungamiriri akapfuura weMarket Technicians Association; "Kuwanikwa kweEWP kwaive pamberi penguva yayo. Kutaura zvazviri, mumakore gumi kana maviri apfuura, vadzidzi vazhinji vane mukurumbira vakagamuchira pfungwa yaElliott uye vanga vachikurudzira zvine mutsindo kuvapo kwezvikwereti zvemisika yemari."
Paul Tudor Jones, bhirionari mutengesi wezvinhu, anodana chinyorwa chaPrechter naFrost paElliott imwe ye "maBhaibheri mana ebhizinesi."
Kururamisa
Iko kutenda kwekuti misika inoratidza mumatanho anozivikanwa chaizvo inopesana neyakajeka musika fungidziro, iyo inotaura kuti mitengo haigone kufungidzirwa kubva pamusika data senge kufambisa mavhareji uye vhoriyamu. Nekufunga uku, dai fungidziro yemusika yakabudirira, vatengesi vaizotenga (kana kutengesa) apo nzira yacho yaifungidzira kuwedzera kwemutengo (kana kuderera), kusvika padanho rekuti mitengo yaizokwira (kana kudonha) nekukasira, nekudaro ichiparadza iyo purofiti uye simba rekufungidzira yenzira. Mumisika inoshanda, ruzivo rweElliott Wave Musimboti pakati pevatengesi zvaizotungamira mukutsakatika kwemaitiro chaiwo ivo avakaedza kutarisira, kupa nzira, uye ese mafomu ekuongorora kwehunyanzvi, zvisina basa.
« Iyo Premier League ine X-Factor yechingwa cheRome nemaRekisi? Yekutanga pane Akawanda D Mazuva eEurope, Sarudzo Mazuva »
