Zvehupfumi Dhata Kuti Utarise Kwevhiki
Kuburitswa kwedhata kweUS svondo rino kwehupfumi hwenyika ichave odha yezvinhu inovimbika muna Kubvumbi muna Chivabvu 24. Chirevo ichi chichajekesa kukura kwe auto rebound muUS - uye kana yakazvishingisa pachayo ichipinda Q2.
Zviitiko zvehupfumi zvakakomberedza mota yaive nyasha yekuponesa yeQ1 GDP, inoitisa kupa + 1.1% kubva muhuwandu hwekare hwekutsvaga kukura kwe1.6% (kureva kuti kusipo kwekusimudza kwezvehupfumi zviitiko zvakakomberedza mota, yekupedzisira kudiwa kwemudzimba ingadai yakaderera zvakanyanya).
Izvi zvaive zvisiri zvekubvisa: mota dzakawedzera 0.5% kuQ4 2011 GDP futi. Mubvunzo apa ndewekuti here kana kwete iyo yekutyora-mutsipa kumhanya kweyemotokari chiitiko chinogona kuenderera.
Nhaurwa "pro" ndeiyi:
- ngarava dzemotokari dzeUS dziri kuchembera
- mwedzi miviri yadarika, maonero emabasa anga achivandudza
- mota nyowani dzinopa kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji kwakadai sekuwandisa kwemafuta, nezvimwewo nharo dzekuti 'con' inyaya yekuti data remabasa - payrolls, mihoro, maawa anoshanda - achangopfavisa uye haana kusimba zvakakwana kutsigira kushandiswa kukuru kwekusimudzira. Nharo isiri-macro ingave iri yekuvandudza mota dzeUS dziri kuhwina mugove wemusika - kunyangwe kana rese indasitiri yekutengesa ingangodaro mune yepakati kumhanya inoramba yakati sandara.
Tiri kutarisira mota kuti dzipe mupiro wakasimba kuzvinhu zvinogara zvakanaka maodha pamwe neese simba rakaratidzirwa neiyo index yeISM. Chinhu chengozi pano ndechekuti mirairo mitsva kuBoing yakadzikira kune ndege ina nyowani. Izvo zvinomiririra anodarika makumi mapfumbamwe muzana kudzikiswa kubva mumwedzi wapfuura, uye zvinogona kugadzirisa zvesimba zvese kubva kumaodha emota matsva.
Zvakadaro, isu tiri kutarisira kukura kwe0.5% pachiyero. Pakati pezvakakurumbira zvesvondo rinouya rekodhi rehupfumi hweUK ichave kuburitswa kweCPI neRPI inflation muna Kubvumbi. Tinotarisira CPI inflation kudzikira kubva pa3.5% y / y kusvika pa3.3%, nepo RPI inflation ingangomira yakasimba pa3.6% y / y. Kuwedzera kwemitengo kwave kuri pakadzika zvakadzikira kubva munaGunyana, zvisinei, izvo zvakazosvika pakaipisisa mwedzi wapera apo mwero wakakwidza kumusoro. Isu tinoona kudzikisira kuenderera mberi kusvika pakati pegore, asi kupfuura ipapo iyo yekuderera ingangodaro kurasikirwa nesimba. Iwo makuru madhiraivha emitengo inowanikwa mwedzi uno ingangodaro iri doro, fodya uye mitengo yekutakura, nepo kukwirira kwakadzika kwemutengo wekufamba nendege kuchizopa kudhonza pamusoro wenyaya.
Pakazara, inflation iri kuratidza kunamira kupfuura zvaitarisirwa pakutanga kwegore. Chikamu cheizvi chakakonzerwa nekusvetuka kwemitengo yemafuta yakananga US $ 125 / bbl kusvika pakati paKurume.
Tataura izvi, kudonhedza kwakatenderedza US $ 110 / bbl svondo rino kunofanirwa kutora kumwe kupisa kubva pamitengo yepeturu kuenda kumberi. Nekudaro, uku kukura hakuite kushandura iyo hombe mufananidzo nezvakawanda. Maonero edu ndeekuti CPI inflation ichangonyika zvishoma chete pazasi pe3% y / y gore rino.
Rondedzero yemitengo yakatekeserwa-semitengo yakadai seyunivhesiti mari yechikoro, mitero yezvivi, mwero wembageji unowedzera, nezvimwe zvinofanirwa kusiya inflation ichiramba iri pamusoro peBank yeEngland's 2% target.
Hupfumi hweThailand hunoramba huri munzira yekudzoresa neyakavanzika yekushandisa uye kunze kwenyika zvinotsigira kudzikisira mukota yekutanga yegore. Kuedza kwekuvakazve uye kukurudzira kwemari kunoramba kuri kwakakosha kukudzosa kweThai mushure memafashama egore rapfuura. Nekudaro, kuvandudzika uku kwave kusingaenzanisike munzvimbo dzemaindasitiri uye nepo dzimwe dzadzo dzakatangazve mafashama emvura asati auya, vamwe vakasara vakundwa. Isu tinofungidzira kuti hupfumi hweThai huchakura 5.0% y / y muna 2012; zvisinei, isu tinotarisira padhuze-kusvika-zero kukura mwero mukota yekutanga yegore mushure mekudzikira ne9.0% y / y mumwedzi mitatu yekupedzisira ya2011.
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