ECB Kutanga Nehasha Kusimbisa, Kufarira Euro Bulls
Kupera kwemwedzi munzvimbo yemari inotarisirwa. Kusanganisira nezuro svondo rekuAmerica, kuyerera kwakawanda kwakadzikira munguva dzeAsia neLondon asi zvakaona tsika yekutenga euro zvichitevera data reinflation kubva kuSpain neGermany.
Hurukuro munharaunda dzekutengeserana dzakanyanya kutarisana nenhau dzesvondo rapfuura, dzinoti kuomeswa kwemutemo weEuropean Central Bank uye dhora richipera simba. Tine mamwe masesheni anonakidza pamberi pesvondo rinouya sarudzo yemitemo yemari, ECB yakagadziridzwa kukura uye inflation yekufungidzira, uye imwe nhungamiro kubva kuEuropean Central Bank Mutungamiri Christine Lagarde.
Mukupera kwaChivabvu kuyerera kwaitarisirwa kutsigira dhora, uye takaona tsigiro svondo rapfuura. Mumwe mutengesi weinterbank akandiudza kuti havatarisire kuyerera kwakawanda kumberi nhasi, kunyanya sezvo masheya eUS ave kuungana nguva pfupi yadarika. Izvi, zvakare, zvinondiudza kuti euro ine nzvimbo yekuwedzera.
Icho chiri nezve asymmetry yeECB. Kune vatengesi vemari, mukana wekukwira kwemakumi mashanu kwekutanga muna Chikunguru wakangofanana nekukwira kwemakumi maviri neshanu. Chief Economist Philip Lane akataura nezuro kuti hurongwa hwemari huchaitwa zvishoma nezvishoma uye kuti "nhanho iri pasi pekusimuka kwemakumi maviri neshanu pamisangano yaChikunguru naGunyana". Ichi chirevo chakajeka, asi chinosiya nzvimbo yekumwe kuwedzeredzwa, sekutaura kwaLagarde kwazvino. Uye sezvo Lane ari wemusasa une mwero weDare Rinodzora, izvi zvinogona kutorwa sekutaura kwehawkish.
Ingave nhoroondo ye50 base point move inogona kuitika chinhu icho forex vatengesi vanozoona mumusika wesarudzo. Iyo euro volatility divergence inoramba ichifarira dhora asi pamazinga mashoma emadhora emari imwe chete pane pakati paChivabvu. Kana tikaona kuwedzera kudzokororwa uye danho rekutanga pamutengo wepamusoro kune bullish euro rates, inogona kutorwa sechiratidzo chakasimba chekuti vatengesi vari kutarisira dovish ECB maonero uye njodzi huru yehafu yezana muzana yekukwira munaGunyana.
Musiyano wemhindu pakati peUS neGermany uri kuramba uchidzikira, ukuwo tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo yepakati-kati yakaratidza kuderera kwenguva pfupi kweiyo eurozone. Ongororo yekupararira kwe-euro-dollar uye EU-US inochinja makore 1-2 kubva zvino inoratidza kuti danho rakananga kumadhora 1.13 rinogona kunge riri mupombi. Iine mashoma mahombe "buts": mamiriro ezvinhu neCovid ari kusimukira muChina uye kana kurwisana kwemauto muUkraine kuchave chipingamupinyi chikuru zvakare. Kusvika pari zvino, kuwedzera kuri pamusoro peavhareji yemazuva makumi mashanu neshanu kunotaura kekutanga kubva muna Kukadzi panhau dzekuti vatungamiriri veEU vakabvumirana kurambidzwa kwemafuta eRussia zvishoma, zvichigadzira nzira yechitanhatu yezvirango kuranga Moscow, inotaura yega. . Patova nekusimba kwekuwedzera kuderera mudhora, asi sezvatakataura svondo rapfuura, chenjerera kubuda kwenhema pakati pekupera kwemwedzi kuyerera kwemari uye kuderedzwa kwemari nekuda kwemwaka wezororo. Kutanga mangwana, tinogona kutotaura nezvemwaka.
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