Hama, Unogona Kurega Dime?
"Vaigara vachindiudza kuti ndiri kuvaka chiroto, saka ndakatevera mhomho,"
Pakange paine ivhu rekurima, kana pfuti dzekutakura, ini ndaigara ndiripo ipapo chaipo pabasa.
Ivo vaigara vachindiudza kuti ndiri kuvaka hope,
nerugare nekubwinya pamberi,
Sei ndichifanira kumira mumutsara,
ndakangomirira chingwa chete? "
"Pane imwe nguva pandakavaka njanji, ndakaigonesa kumhanya, ndaiita kuti irwisane nenguva.
Pane imwe nguva ndakavaka njanji; zvino zvaita. Hama, unogona here kusiya kana dhiri?
Pane imwe nguva ndakavaka shongwe, inosvika kuzuva, zvidhina, uye riveti, uye lime.
Pane imwe nguva pandakavaka shongwe, ikozvino zvaita. Mukoma, hamungambovi kana dhiri here? "
Hama, Unogona Kuponesa Dime, "mazwi naJip Harburg, mumhanzi naJay Gorney (1931)
Kunyangwe paine nyaya dzakasimudzira nezuro, dzekuti USA zvainge zvanzvenga bara rekudzikira kwakadzika, mishumo yazvino kubva kuUS haina kufanana netarisiro;
Ongororo ichangobva kuitwa, yakaitwa naGordon Green naJohn Coder yakaburitswa neSentier Research, yaburitsa pachena kuti mari yepakati nepakati (yakagadziriswa inflation) yakadonha 6.7 muzana pakati paJune 2009 naJune 2011, zvakapetwa zvakapetwa kaviri pakaderera pasi pe3.2 muzana panguva yeupfumi hwazvino. . Mari yepakati pegore yepakati yemhuri yakadzika kusvika pamadhora makumi mana nemazana mapfumbamwe nepfumbamwe munaJune 49,909 kubva pamadhora makumi mashanu nemakumi matatu nemakumi matatu nemuna muna Zvita 2011, pakatanga hupfumi. Mhuri dzeAmerica dzakaramba dzichirasikirwa nepasi kunyangwe (sezviri pachena) kukura kwakatangazve. Kukura kwehupfumi muhafu yekutanga yegore ra55,309 kwakamira, kuchikwira pasingasviki muzana muzana pagore. Muchikamu chechipiri, kushandiswa kwevatengi kwakakwira ne 2007 muzana chete, yakanyanya kusimba kubva muchina chechina cha2011.
Kukundikana kwemakambani kuri kutanga kumhanyisa, nemamwe makambani makuru-mazita pakati peavo vari kurwira kurarama. American Airlines ingangoda kuenda kumatare kunogadzirisazve zvibvumirano zvayo zvevashandi, uye Kodak akasimbisa kuti kambani yemutemo inozivikanwa nekutora makambani kubudikidza nekubhuroka yanga ichipa zano nezano sezvo kuyedza kwayo kurasikirwa nekurasikirwa kwebhizimusi ravo rekutora mifananidzo kwave kutadza kubudirira.
Makambani mune akati wandei emabhizimusi, kunyanya maindasitiri ebasa senge kushambidzika kwemunhu, zvitoro zvakaita semaresitorendi, simba rinowedzerwazve, uye indasitiri yemapepa, zvakawira mukudzivirirwa kweChitsauko 11 muUSA mumwedzi mishoma yapfuura. Hupfumi husina kusimba, kudonha kwemashandisirwo evatengi uye zviito zvinowedzera kuomesa zvikwereti zviri kutyisidzira makambani ari kunetseka mumaindasitiri akasiyana sekutakura, kushanya, midhiya, simba uye zvivakwa. Uye zvivakwa zvichiri kugara ipapo semurume bogey mukona izvo zvisingaendi. Kune akati wandei eUSA anoti ane mitengo yemba padhuze kana kudzoka kumatanho a1999, uye iri dambudziko rakawanda kugara ipapo paFed's balance sheet sezvo ivo vakatenga yakawanda yeiyi subprime 'junk' kubva kubhangi mumatanho apfuura eQE.
Kunyangwe paine tsika yekupomera uye kunongedzera chigunwe munzira yekuEurope kana China kutadza kwemakambani iko USA iko parizvino imba yakakura kukura uye incubated zviitiko. Makambani gumi ane angangoita mamirioni zana emadhora mumidziyo akamisirwa kubhuroka munaGunyana, akanyanya kubvira gumi nemanomwe akamiswa muna Kubvumbi, mwedzi wakabatikana kubva muna 100, sekureva kwedata rinowanikwa kubva ku bankruptcydata.com. Nguva pfupi yadarika kubhuroka kunosanganisira glossy magazini inogadzira bepa NewPage Corp, (iyo yakanyanya kubhuroka yegore) uye yakakura kwazvo isiri yemari kambani kumisikidza kubvira 2009; Graceway Pharmaceuticals, iyo inogadzira makirimu eganda; Hussey Copper, iyo inogadzira mabha endarira anoshandiswa mumachineti, uye iyo Dallas Nyeredzi yeNational Hockey League. Nechekare muna Gumiguru, makambani mashanu ane anodarika madhora zana mamirioni muzvinhu akamhan'arira kubhuroka, kusanganisira Friendly's ice cream cheni uye isina waya Broadband kambani Open Range Communications.
Musika wezvisungo iye zvino uri mutengo mune makumi matanhatu muzana njodzi yekuderera kwehupfumi nenzira yechisungo chemusika wechisungo iyo yakafanotaura kuderera kweUS kwese kubva 1970, iyo inonzi Treasure inobereka curve. Mitengo yepfupi-yenguva yanga yakakwira kupfuura goho renguva refu, kana kushandurwa, pamberi peumwe neumwe wematanho manomwe kubva muna 1970. Chibvumirano chinoita kuti zviome kuUS kudzikisa kushaikwa kwemabasa, uko kwakabata kana pamusoro pe9 muzana pamwedzi wega wega kunze kwemaviri kubvira Chivabvu 2009, kusanganisira kuverenga kwe9.1 muzana munaGunyana.
MaChinese akatoshinga kutaura izwi 'D' munzira yeUSA nenzira yekutaura kwechiChinese kubva kuXinhua;
Paive nemamiriro ezvinhu akafanana muma1930. Hupfumi hweUnited States uye hupfumi hwenyika hwakasiyana nehwema1930, asi kutarisa kumashure pane nhoroondo kwaizobatsira Seneti yeUS kuona matambudziko, kupokana uye njodzi yemubhadharo wemari. China ine chirevo chekare chekuti munhu anofanirwa kushandisa nhoroondo segirazi kuti anzwisise kusimuka nekudonha kwenyika. Isu tinovimba kuti avo vezvematongerwo enyika vekuAmerican vanoshevedzera kumanikidza renminbi kuti vanzwisise vanozotora izvo zvidzidzo zvezvakaitika uye voisa manzwi ekufunga, uye kwete kuita chiito chisina musoro chinokuvadza vanhu vavo nevamwe.
Raft yehurombo 'hupfumi hwehupfumi' hausi wega kuUSA, kuUK neChipiri mangwanani chirevo chakataura kuti vamwe vana mazana matanhatu ezviuru vanozoiswa muhurombo semari yepakati muBritain inodonha neanomwe muzana pakati pa600,000-2009 na10- 2012 uye hurumende inochinja hurongwa hwehupfumi. Sangano reFiscal Studies (IFS) rakati kudonha uku ndiko kwakakura kwazvo kwemakore makumi matatu nemashanu.
Uku "kudonha kusati kwamboitika muhupenyu" kunogona kunzi kwakakwira inflation uye kushomeka kwemihoro kukura mumashure mekudzika kwakadzika kwehupfumi. Vanotaura zvakare kuti shanduko dzakatarwa nehurumende yemubatanidzwa dzichasimudza hurombo hwevana (uko mari yemhuri iri pasi pe60 muzana yemari yepakati pe2010-11, yakagadziriswa inflation) ne200,000 mu2015-16 uye uye 300,000 mu2020-21.
Inofungidzira kuti vana mamirioni 3.1, kana kungoti pfuurei makumi maviri nezviviri kubva muzana, yevana muBritain vachange vari muhurombo hwakakwana mugore ra23, kubva pamamiriyoni maviri nezviuru zviviri (2013 muzana) muna2.5, uye mamirioni 19.3 vacharamba vari muhurombo hwakakwana muna2010. zvinoreva kuti hurumende yaizopotsa nemuganho wakakura chinangwa chayo, chakabvumiranwa mumutemo gore rapfuura nerutsigiro rwemapato ese ezvematongerwo enyika, kubvisa hurombo hwakakwana hwevana kusvika pasi pemashanu muzana pakupera kwegumi.
Yekupedzisira Quarterly Economic Survey kubva kuBritish Chambers of Commerce inoratidza kuti pane chaiko kutyisidzira kwekudzika-mbiri kuderera. Mushure mekuongorora anopfuura mazana matanhatu emafemu, iri kutaura kuti mabhizinesi haana chivimbo uye anonetsekana nematambudziko ari mu eurozone.
David Kern, BCC Chief Economist, akati:
Mhedzisiro yeQ3 QES inonongedzera kune kudzikira kwemamiriro ehupfumi, zvine chekuita nezviratidzo zvekumira mune hupfumi hwenyika. Iyo inoodza mwoyo Q3 zviyero zvekutengesa kunze kwenyika, uye zvekudyara muzvirimwa nemichina, zvinoratidza kuti kudiwa kwakanyanya kunodiwa kwehupfumi hweUK hakusati kwaitika. Zviyero zvisina kunaka zvemari inoyerera zvinoratidza kuti mafemu ari kutarisana nematambudziko emari chaiwo.
Izvo zviyero zvinotarisa zviri kumberi zvemba zvakatamisirwa mundima isina kunaka, kune ese ari maviri ekugadzira uye masevhisi, zvichinongedzera kungozi dzehupfumi. Kunyangwe kuderera kwehupfumi kuchidzivirirwa, pahwaro hwemhedzisiro iyi fungidziro dzekukura dzakaburitswa kutanga kwaGunyana dzinogona kunge dzichidzokorodzwa pasi pasi kune ese ari ma2011 na2012.
Tichifunga nezvekuipa kuri kuita mamiriro epasi rose uye matambudziko akanyanya anotarisana neEurozone, pane chikonzero chaicho chekuti MPC nehurumende vaite zvese zvavanogona kuti vadzivise njodzi dzezvehupfumi. Iko kuwedzera kwechangobva kuitika muchirongwa cheQE kusvika pa- $ 275 bhiriyoni inogamuchirwa, asi mamwe matanho akasimba anodikanwa. Izvi zvinofanirwa kunyanya kutariswa pakutenga yakachengetedzwa zvikwereti zveSME uye zvimwe zviwanikwa zvesangano rakazvimiririra. Kune iro divi, hurumende inofanirwa kuisa pamberi marongero ayo emashandisirwo ekusimudzira kukura uye kugadzirwa kwehupfumi.
Pfungwa iyi yakaitika kune vakawanda vezvehupfumi pamwe nevanotaura nezvemisika kuti zviitiko zvakasarudzika zvehupfumi hwehupfumi zvakasimudzwa pamusoro apa ingori mari yakajairika yekudzikira uye kuyerera kwechero nguva dzehupfumi. Semuenzaniso, iyo UK yakasangana nematanho masere kubva Hondo Yenyika yechipiri yapera, zvakadaro, panguva ino inonzwa zvakasiyana. Hapana hupfumi hwapfuura hwaive nevezvehupfumi vachipokana nekanzuru yehurongwa hwekugona kurarama mushure mekununurwa nemamirioni emadhora emadhora akanunurwa.
Iko 70's kuderera 'kukonzera' kunonzi kune1973 dambudziko remafuta. Zvakatora makota gumi nemana eGDP kuti idzokere kune iyo pakutanga kwekudzikira mushure mekunyudzwa kaviri. Kwekutanga makore makumi masere ekudzikira, kwakakonzerwa nemitemo yehurumende monetarist yekudzora inflation, yakatora makota gumi nematatu eGDP kuti idzokere, asi makota gumi nesere akazara eGDP kuti idzokere kwayaive pakutanga kwekudzikisira. Kuderera kwemakumi mapfumbamwe kwakakonzerwa nedambudziko rekuchengetedza nekukweretesa kweUS zvakaona mihoro yekambani ichiderera makumi maviri neshanu muzana. Kushaikwa kwemabasa kunokwira ne14% kubva pa80% yevanoshanda muna 13 kusvika pa18% muna90 uye vakatora makota gumi nematatu eGDP kuti vadzokere kune iwo pakutanga kwekuderera.
Zvinyorwa zvinoratidzira kuti iyo Great Recession yakatanga uye yakapera kubva muna 2008-2009. Asi mukushamisa kusinganzwisisike chikonzero chakakonzerwa nekuparara kwemari kwa2007-2010. Iko kudzikiswa kwepamusoro kweGDP, kunoiswa pa7.1%, kunongo'bhedhenurwa 'ne8% yakasangana mushure mehondo yenyika 1. Mabhuku enhoroondo anogona kungonyorazve zvinyorwa paGreat Recession, achiti zvakatanga kubva muna2008 uye zvakapfuurira kusvika kuEuropean. uye USA govts. pakupedzisira uye muchibvumirano chakabvumirana kumutsiridza iyo system nemari iyo yakazosvika 'Main Street'. Iyo jekiseni yemitriliyoni yakabhadharwa mibairo uye yakabatsira kudzima hama uye inflation yakagadzirisa zvikwereti zve "munhuwo zvake Joe". Ipo mabhanga makuru uye makambani ekudyara akatora zvakanyanya kunyora pasi pazvikwereti zvavo, mabond uye midziyo yemasekita makumi matanhatu kubva muzana iyo yekuregedza calibration yakakonzera kuchenesa kwakabudirira pasisitimu yezvemari yepasi rose ichibvumidza kuseta uye kurongeka kuti zviitike zvakare.
Tiri mumari, isu tiri mumari;
Tine zvakawanda zvazvinotora kuti tiwirirane!
Tiri mumari, iro denga izuva,
Mudhara Kudzvinyirira iwe zvauri kuburikidza, iwe wakatiitira zvisizvo.
Hatina kumboona musoro wenyaya nezve mabreadline nhasi.
Uye patinoona muridzi wemba tinokwanisa kutarisa murume iyeye mumaziso chaimo.
Tiri mumari, uyai mudiwa wangu,
Ngatipei, tipe, tiendese kuumburuka pamwe chete!
Oo, hongu tiri mumari, iwe unotengesa tiri mumari,
Tine zvakawanda zvazvinotora kuti tiwirirane!
Handei isu tiri mumari, Tarisa mudenga kune zuva,
Mudhara Kudzvinyirira iwe zvauri kuburikidza, iwe wakatiitira zvisizvo.
Hatina kumboona musoro wenyaya nezve mabreadline nhasi.
Uye patinoona muridzi wemba tinokwanisa kutarisa murume iyeye mumaziso chaimo
Tiri mumari, uyai mudiwa wangu,
Ngatizvishandisei, tipei chikwereti, titumire ichiumburuka pamwe chete!
"Tiri muMari," mazwi naAl Dubin, mimhanzi naHarry Warren (kubva mufirimu Gold Diggers. 1933)
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