Bond Markets mutsvuku: Chii chekutarisira?
Misika yemabhondi yepasi rose yadzikira kusvika padanho rakaderera kubva muna 1990, sezvo vanoisa mari vachitarisira kuti mabhanga epakati akurumidze kukwidza mhindu pamberi pekukwira kwakanyanya kwemakumi emakore.
Chii chiri kuitika?
Kurasika kwemusika wemabhondi kunokonzerwa nemabhanga makuru ari kukwidza mitengo yemubereko kurwisa kukwira kwemitengo. Pakati pemabhondi nemitengo yemhindu, pane fomula yemasvomhu. Mari yemubereko inokwira kana zvisungo zvadzikira uye neimwe nzira.
Mushure mekufamba mubereko kekutanga kubvira 2018, Sachigaro weFederal Reserve Jay Powell vakasaina neMuvhuro kuti bhanga guru reUS rakazvipira kuita zvine simba kana zvichidikanwa kuchengetedza kukwira kwemitengo.
Kutevera Fed Chair Powell's hawkish kutaura neMuvhuro, St Louis Fed Mutungamiri Bullard akasimbisa zvaanoda kuti FOMC iite "nehasha" kuchengetedza inflation, vachiti FOMC haigoni kumirira kuti nyaya dzezvematongerwo enyika dzigadziriswe.
Zvisungo zvinoenda zvitsvuku
Goho reUS 2-year note, iro riri panjodzi yekufembera yakaderera-mubereko, yakakwira makore matatu e2.2 muzana svondo rino, kubva pa0.73 % pakuvhurwa kwegore. Goho paTreasury yemakore maviri iri munzira yekusvetuka zvakanyanya mukota kubvira 1984.
Mitengo yenguva refu yakakwira zvakare, kunyangwe zvishoma nezvishoma, nekuda kwekukwira kwezvinotarisirwa kukwira kwemitengo, zvichibvisa kukwezva kwekuva nezvibatiso zvinopa fungidziro yekuwana mari mune ramangwana rinoonekwa.
NeChitatu, 10-gore goho muUnited States yakasvika 2.42%, iyo yepamusoro yepamusoro kubva May 2019. Zvisungo muEurope zvakatevera, uye kunyange hurumende zvisungo muJapan, uko inflation yakaderera, uye bhangi guru rinotarisirwa kuzvidza hawkish yepasirese maitiro, yakarasika gore rino.
BoE neECB vanopinda mujaho
Misika ikozvino inofanotaura zvingangomwe zvinomwe kuwedzera kwemitengo muUnited States gore rino. Pamusoro pezvo, Bhangi reEngland rakakwidza mitengo yemubereko kechitatu mwedzi uno, uye mari yekukwereta kwenguva pfupi ingangokwira pamusoro pe2% pakupera kwa2022.
Pamusangano wayo wazvino uno, European Central Bank yakazivisa kukurumidza-kupfuura-inotarisirwa mhepo-pasi pechirongwa chayo chekutenga mabhondi. Mharidzo yaro yehawkish inouya sevagadziri vemitemo vanotarisa kukwira kwemitengo, kunyangwe Eurozone yakakuvadzwa zvakanyanya nehondo muUkraine kupfuura humwe hupfumi hwenyika.
Zvinorevei kumusika wemari?
Kukwidzwa kwemhindu kuri kubuda kubva kumazinga akanyanya-akaderera, uye musika wemasheya wekuUS unoratidzika kunge wakasununguka nemitengo iripo yemusika wemitengo minomwe gore risati rapera, zvichiunza mwero weFed Funds kuti ungopfuura 2%.
Kunyangwe ichokwadi chekuti equities akawanazve akawanda ekurasikirwa kwawo kubva pakapinda Russia muUkraine, ma indices ane mukurumbira seS&P 500 aramba achidonha gore rino.
Final pfungwa
Nekukura kwehupfumi kuri kuita shakier, chiyero cheFed chinokwira chingangogumira. Pamusoro pekushomeka kwesimba uye zvigadzirwa, kuvhiringwa kwekupa, uye hondo muEurope, hupfumi hwenyika huri kudzikira sezvo Federal Reserve iri kugadzirira kutanga kudzikisira pepa rayo.
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