Yuan Kuti Apitilize Kutsika Pamene Greenback Ikulira
Kutsika kwa yuan kukuyembekezeka kuchulukirachulukira m'miyezi ingapo ikubwerayi chifukwa misika ikuyambitsa kusokonekera kwachuma komwe kudachitika chifukwa chankhondo yaku China yolimbana ndi mliri wina wa Covid.
Akatswiri a mabungwe a Credit Agricole, Standard Chartered Bank, BNP Paribas ndi HSBC Bank atsitsa zomwe anena pamene yuan yatsika ndi 3% mwezi uno. Kafukufuku wa Bloomberg wa amalonda 11 ndi akatswiri akuwonetsa kuti yuan idzatsika kufika pa 6.7 pa dola m'miyezi itatu, pafupifupi 2% pansi pa mlingo wake wamakono.
Covid ikutuluka
Kusinthaku kumabwera patangotha miyezi ingapo China idafuna kuthana ndi mphamvu za yuan pomwe zoletsa za Covid zidadzetsa mantha kuti dzikolo liphonya chuma chake pomwe likulu la Beijing likulimbana ndi mliri. Pamene banki yapakati ndi andale akulonjeza kuti azithandizira kwambiri, misika yaku China imagwa, zomwe zikuwonjezera chiwopsezo chakuchulukira kwachuma.
"Sindikuganiza kuti uku ndi kutha kwa kutsika kwamtengo waposachedwa kwa yuan," atero a Bo Zhuang, katswiri wofufuza za mabungwe aboma ku Loomis Sayles Investments Asia ku Singapore, yemwe adawonetsa nkhawa zakutsika komwe kungachitike ngati Beijing atsekereza. Akuwona yuan ikufooka mpaka 6.85 pa dola chaka chino ndi kuthekera kugwa ku 7.00 chaka chamawa.
Morgan Stanley ndi mabanki ena adadula zolosera zakukula kwawo ku China pansi pa zomwe zanenedweratu za 5.5% za chaka chino.
Yuan yakumtunda idagwa pafupifupi 1% sabata ino mpaka $ 6.5571 pa dollar Lachitatu, pomwe yuan yakunyanja idagwa 1% mpaka $ 6.5891 nthawi yomweyo.
HSBC ndi BNP Paribas tsopano zaneneratu kuti yuan idzatsika kufika pa 6.60 pa dollar kumapeto kwa June, pamene Standard Chartered and Credit Agricole imati 6.70. Bank of America Corp. ndi TD Securities alosera kuti ndalama zidzatsika kufika pa 6.80 kumapeto kwa chaka chifukwa cha kuwonongeka kwa malonda. Chakumapeto kwa Marichi, akatswiri omwe adafunsidwa ndi Bloomberg amayembekeza kuti ndalamazo zitha kugulitsa pafupifupi 6.38 kumapeto kwa gawo lachiwiri.
"Mawonekedwe a yuan amadalira kwambiri chitukuko cha Covid komanso momwe chuma chikukulirakulira ku China," atero Alvin Tan, wamkulu wa njira ya Asia FX ku Royal Bank of Canada ku Hong Kong. "Ndizomveka kugwiritsa ntchito kuwerengera ndalama zoyendetsedwa ngati valavu yachitetezo."
Chithunzi cha PBOC
Njira yoyezera ya PBOC pothandizira yuan ikuwonekeranso m'kusafuna kwake kugwiritsa ntchito chiwongola dzanja chatsiku ndi tsiku ngati chida chodziwitsira. Zomwe zinaperekedwa pamisonkhano yomaliza zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi zowunika za akatswiri. Lolemba, banki yayikulu idadula ndalama zamabanki akunja omwe amafunikira kuti asungidwe mu nkhokwe. Lingaliroli liyenera kuonjezera kuchuluka kwa ndalama za yuan.
"Ndimakonda kuwona zomwe NBK ikuchita ngati kuyendetsa kusinthasintha kwa ndalama m'malo mowongolera kuchuluka kwa kusinthana kapena kuyesa kusintha zomwe zikuchitika," atero a Philip Vee, katswiri wodziwa bwino zandalama ku DBS Bank Ltd ku Singapore.
NBK ili ndi zida zosiyanasiyana zolimbikitsira yuan. Zitha kupititsa patsogolo kukonza kwandalama, kutsitsa mtengo wogulitsa yuan yakunyanja ndikuchepetsanso zosowa zandalama zakunja, malinga ndi omwe adayankha ku Bloomberg. Banki yapakati ingathenso kuchepetsa kutuluka kwa ndalama zakunja ndi kugula zapakhomo, amalonda ndi akatswiri ofufuza adati incognito, chifukwa saloledwa kupereka ndemanga poyera kwa atolankhani.
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