Yen agwa pomwe kutumizira kunja kwa Japan kugwa, kuchepa kwa malonda kukukulirakulira, US dollar ikuvutikira kuwongolera, pomwe amalonda a FX akuyembekezera mphindi za FOMC

Feb 20 • Zogulitsa Zamalonda, Ndemanga za Msika • 1824 Views • Comments Off pa Yen ikugwa pamene katundu wa ku Japan akugwa, kuchepa kwa malonda kumawonjezereka, dola ya US ikuvutika kuti ipite patsogolo, pamene amalonda a FX akuyembekezera maminiti a FOMC.

Monga wachiwiri / wachitatu wopanga wamkulu padziko lonse lapansi ndipo mosakayikira ndi nambala wani pakupanga zinthu zothandiza, zapamwamba kwambiri, zopanga ndi zotumiza kunja ku Japan nthawi zambiri zimawonedwa ngati muyeso, kuyesa thanzi lachuma padziko lonse lapansi. Pa gawo la Lachitatu lazamalonda ku Asia, zidziwitso zaposachedwa za kutumiza ndi kutumiza kunja zidasindikizidwa pazachuma cha Japan. Kutumiza kunja kwatsika ndi -8.4% pachaka mpaka Januware, pomwe zogulitsa kunja zatsika ndi -0.6% YoY mpaka Januware. Kusokonekera kwamalonda kudakulirakulira mpaka ¥ 1452b mpaka Januware.

Pachuma chomwe chimadalira kupanga ndi kutumiza kunja, chomwe chili ndi: chiŵerengero cha 253% GDP v ngongole, kukula kwa GDP kwa 0.00% ndi kukwera kwa 0.3%, zikuwonekeratu kuona chifukwa chake Bwanamkubwa wa Bank of Japan Kuroda adalengeza ndondomeko ya dovish kale mu sabata. Ananenanso kuti banki yayikulu ikhoza kukulitsa kapena kukulitsa ndondomeko yake yazachuma, kuphatikizirapo kubwereketsa kuzama mu ZIRP; Pansi pa mlingo wapano wa -0.1%, kwinaku akulowetsa ndalama zambiri muzachuma (komanso chuma chapakhomo), kudzera mu QE ndi kugula ma bond. USD / JPY inagwa pa nthawi ya gawo la Asia komanso kumayambiriro kwa gawo la London, monga kutumiza kunja, kuitanitsa deta kunatulutsidwa ndipo zotsatira zake zimaweruzidwa ndi katswiri wa FX ndi amalonda; pa 9: 00am UK nthawi USD / JPY inagulitsa 0.23% pa ​​110.8, itatha kuthyola muyeso woyamba wotsutsa R1. EUR/JPY inatsatira njira yofananira, awiriwa adagulitsa 0.28% pa 125.7, komanso kuphwanya R1.

Sterling adachita mwachidwi panthawi yazamalonda Lachiwiri, akusangalala ndi nkhani yoti Prime Minister May anyamuka kupita ku Brussels, kuti akadziwitse okambirana nawo a EU kuti ali wokonzeka kuchotsa kuchotsedwa kwa backstop, kuti ayese kusuntha mgwirizano wochotsa. pamodzi. Ngakhale mkulu wakale wa EU, Manuel Barossa, yemwe kale anali Purezidenti wa 11 wa European Commission, adanena kuti EU iwonjezera chikalata cha 50 kupyola pa 29 March, mawuwa angakhalenso achititsa kuti anthu ayambe kuwoneka bwino ndi anzawo Lachiwiri. .

Lingaliro ndilokuti EU sikanazindikira kuti dongosolo latsopano la Mayi May B ndilo ndondomeko yoyamba A, yomwe idagwirizana kale. Misika ya FX ndi yotakasuka ndipo sikuti imangoneneratu, chifukwa chake, sterling adabweza zina mwazopeza Lachiwiri pa Lachitatu Lachitatu la Asia ndi London. Ofufuza a FX ndi amalonda anayamba kudzuka pozindikira kuti palibe kupita patsogolo komwe kungachitike, pa msonkhano wa Mayi May ndi Bambo Juncker, ku Brussels lero.

Bambo Juncker adafunsanso chifukwa chomwe Prime Minister waku UK amapitiliza kupempha misonkhano, pomwe mgwirizano wochotsa sudzatsegulidwanso. Kukayikira kuli (kachiwirinso) kufalitsidwa, kuti govt UK. akungogwiritsa ntchito misonkhano ngati mavalidwe a zenera komanso kulemekeza anthu, kuwonetsa kuti akugwira ntchito molimbika, kuti apeze yankho, pomwe akungotseka koloko kuti achitepo kanthu. Amalonda a Sterling FX adzakhala anzeru kuti UK idzatuluka ku EU pa March 29th, pokhapokha ngati kuonjezera kufunsidwa. Pa 9: 30am UK nthawi, GBP / USD idagulitsidwa molimba pa chogwirira cha 1.300, koma pansi pa 0.27% patsiku, pamene awiriawiri ena apamwamba adakumana ndi zofanana; EUR/GBP idagulitsa 0.28% pa 0.870.

Nkhani zaku Europe zidakhazikika pamitengo yaposachedwa ya opanga kuchokera ku Germany; chaka ndi chaka mpaka Januwale, mitengo yakwera ndi 2.6%, kugunda zolosera za 2.2%. Metric iyi ikhoza kuonedwa ngati yolimbikitsa kwambiri ku Germany komanso kufalikira kwa Eurozone chuma, pomwe izi zitha kupangitsanso kukwera kwapang'onopang'ono kwa inflation, komwe ku Germany ndi EZ pakali pano kukucheperachepera 2%. European equity indices idagulitsidwa kumayambiriro kwa gawo lazamalonda la London-European; UK FTSE 100 kukwera 0.17%, DAX kukwera 0.42% ndi CAC kukwera 0.10%. Yuro idasinthana ndi anzawo ambiri ndipo nthawi ya 10:00am nthawi yaku UK EUR/USD idagulitsa 0.10%, pomwe ndalama zonse zaku Australasia, Kiwi ndi Aussie, yuro idapita patsogolo pafupifupi 0.25% mu gawo la London.

Kukambitsirana kwa USA-China kupitilirabe ku Washington Lachitatu, nkhani itatuluka ku Bloomberg Lachiwiri madzulo, kuti gulu lokambirana la USA lapempha banki yayikulu yaku China, PBOC kukonza mtengo wa yuan, kuti awonetsetse mgwirizano uliwonse wamalonda. mbali zonse zikufika, sizikuipitsidwa ndi kutsika kwa mtengo wosinthanitsa. Kufuna kwachilendo kumaperekedwa kuti dola yamphamvu v yuan iwonetsetsa kuti USA ikulipira zochepa pazogulitsa kuchokera kunja ndipo ingathe kuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja chamalipiro mwachangu, ngati mtengo wa USD/CNY ukadali wapamwamba. Misika yam'tsogolo inali kuwonetsa kutseguka kwa misika ya US equity, gawo la New York litayamba. Pa 10:00am UK nthawi ya DJIA yamtsogolo inali pansi -0.14% ndi SPX pansi -0.12%. FOMC idzasindikiza maminiti okhudzana ndi msonkhano wawo wa January rate, Lachitatu madzulo nthawi ya 7:00pm UK. Amalonda a FX akulangizidwa kuti aziyang'anira chochitikachi mosamala, chifukwa cha mphamvu zake zakale zosuntha msika mu dola ya US.

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