Kodi Sabata Lodzazali Lidzadabwitsa Malonda?
Misika yazachuma idzakhala yachipongwe komanso yochititsa chidwi m'masiku angapo akubwerawa chifukwa chazidziwitso zazikulu zachuma, zisankho zamabanki apakati, ndi mapindu amakampani aukadaulo.
Nthaŵi yomweyo misonkhano ya Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ndi European Central Bank isanachitike, osunga ndalama anagaŵira unyinji wa ndalama zamakampani ndi malipoti aakulu amene anadzutsa chikaikiro. Magawo aku Europe atsika m'mawa uno chifukwa cha kusakhazikika komanso kusamala. Poganizira momwe osunga ndalama angakhalire osamala pazinthu zowopsa, masheya aku US amathanso kugwa. Ma benchmarks azandalama adavutikiranso chifukwa cha kukwera kwamitengo, pomwe dola ikukwera mpaka pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri pakatha sabata. Golide adatsikira ku $ 1900 poyankha malingaliro owopsa.
Popeza misika ikuyembekeza kuti FOMC, BoE, ndi ECB achitepo kanthu sabata ino, cholinga chake chizikhala pazomwe akunena osati zomwe amachita. Zomwe zikuchitika sabata ino zitha kukhazikitsa mwezi watsopano wamalonda wa February. Kuphatikiza pa Apple, Alphabet, ndi Meta Platforms sabata ino, maso onse adzakhala pa zomwe amapeza komanso momwe akukulira, makamaka pambuyo pa kuchotsedwa kwaposachedwa kwamakampani aukadaulo aku US.
Lachitatu:
ISM Manufacturing PMI ikuyembekezeka kugwa kuchokera ku 48.4 mpaka 48.0. Muyeneranso kulabadira ntchito ndi mitengo, ndi wakale ali ndi kulemera kwambiri tsopano. Pachifukwa ichi, US JOLTs Job Openings iyenera kusuntha msika ngati deta ikugwa kwambiri.
Mamembala a Fed akuyembekezeka kutsamira ku chiwonjezeko chaching'ono pomwe mitengo ya inflation ikukwera m'masabata angapo otsatira ndipo FOMC ikukwera ndi 25 bps.
Akuti Fed idzakweza mitengo ndi ma point 25. A Fed nthawi zambiri amatsata mitengo yamsika, kotero ndizokayikitsa kuti angakweze mitengo mosayembekezereka ndi mfundo 50. Pokhapokha ngati akufuna kuswa "mizimu yanyama" yomwe yachedwetsa ndalama m'miyezi yaposachedwa ndipamene angakweze ndi mfundo 50. Kusuntha kotereku kungayambitsedi chiopsezo chachikulu.
Zoyenera kuyembekezera kuchokera ku Fed?
Pambuyo pa msonkhano wake Lachitatu, Federal Reserve ikuyembekezeka kukweza chiwongola dzanja ndi mfundo 25.
Chifukwa cha chiyembekezo chofala kuti Fed idzasuntha kotero, msonkhano wa atolankhani ndi mawu a Fed Chair Powell adzalandira chidwi chachikulu. Mosiyana ndi zomwe msika ukuyembekezera pamitengo yodula ya Fed kumapeto kwa 2023, Powell akuyembekezeka kugunda kamvekedwe ka hawkish. Pamene osunga ndalama akufunafuna chidziwitso chatsopano cha zomwe banki yayikulu idzachita chaka chino, kusagwirizana pakati pa Fed ndi misika kungawonjezere ku msonkhano womwe ukubwera. Ngati Fed hawks ikulamulira zochitika, dola ikhoza kulandira chithandizo china. Ngati misika ikulephera kumvetsetsa mawu a hawkish ndikuwonetsa kukwera kwamitengo, dola ikhoza kutsika.
ECB Hawks, kulamulira wamkulu?
Lachinayi, ma Hawks a ECB atsogolere popeza kukwera kwa mitengo ku Europe sikukhala bwino. ECB ikuyembekezeka kukweza chiwongola dzanja ndi mfundo 50, ndi Largarde wa hawkish akulimbitsa ziyembekezo zakukwera kwamitengo. Ziwerengero zaposachedwa za kutsika kwa mitengo ya mwezi wa Januwale zidzaperekedwa msonkhano wa malamulo usanachitike. Pokhala ndi kukwera kwa mitengo yokwezeka, chiwongola dzanja cha ECB kukwera kutha kuwongolera kupsinjika kwamitengo kwa nthawi yayitali ngati inflation ikadali yokwera.
Pazithunzi za tsiku ndi tsiku, EURUSD ikupitirizabe kugulitsa pansi pa zovuta kuzungulira 1.0900, ndi kukana kuzungulira mlingo wa chidwi chozungulira 1.0770. Mphamvu ya dola ikuwoneka kuti ikuwonjezera kutsika, ndi gawo lotsatira lachidwi mozungulira 1.0770. Misonkhano ya Fed ndi ECB idzakhudza kwambiri momwe zinthu zidzakhalire pafupi, ndipo mwayi wotuluka ukhoza kukhala pafupi.
Kuyang'ana kwa GBP/USD kuchokera pamalingaliro andalama
Sabata ino, Banki ya hawkish yaku England ikhoza kubaya ng'ombe zabwino kwambiri ndi chidaliro chatsopano. Ngakhale kuti chiwongola dzanja chatsika mpaka 10.5% mu Disembala, chiwongola dzanja cha banki chikupitilira kasanu. Pofuna kuthana ndi kukwera kwa inflation, BoE idzakweza chiwongoladzanja ndi mfundo za 2. Poganizira za kukwera kwa mitengo yomwe ikuyembekezeka, aliyense adzayang'ana pa kukula kosinthidwa ndi zoneneratu za kukwera kwa mitengo, zomwe zingapereke chidziwitso chatsopano chokhudza kukhwimitsa mfundo. Mosasamala kanthu za kutha kwa msonkhano wa BoE, pakhoza kukhala kuwonjezeka kwa kusasunthika kwa mapaundi.
GBPUSD imakhalabe yopanikizika pama chart a tsiku ndi tsiku pamene mitengo ikuyandikira mlingo wa 1.2300. Kuwonongeka pansi pa mlingo uwu kungalimbikitse kutsika kwa 1.2170 kapena 1.2120.
« Kodi Mungamvetse Bwanji Malingaliro a Currency Pair? Kodi Margin ndi Free Margin Amagwira Ntchito Motani mu Forex? »
