Kodi FOMC idzakweza chiwongola dzanja chofunikira ndikulengeza pulani yolimbitsa kuchuluka?
Mu Januwale 2017, wapampando wa Fed a Janet Yellen, adapereka mawu achinyengo, osonyeza kuti Fed ikweza chiwongola dzanja katatu pachaka, ngati iwowo ndi komiti yake, akuwona kuti chuma cha USA chinali cholimba kuthana ndi adzauka. Malinga ndikudzipereka kwake, milanduyi idakwezedwa moyenera mu Marichi komanso mu Juni.
Mwezi wa Juni udadabwitsa akatswiri ambiri, pomwe adalengezedwa pomwe inflation ikuchepa. Fed inayambanso kutsegula zenera pazokambirana mokhudzana ndi zomwe zimatchedwa "kusakhulupirika kwakukulu"; momwe Chuma chimachepetsera, kudzera pazomwe zimatchedwa "kuchuluka kwamankhwala", pepala lokwanira lomwe lalembedwa mpaka $ 4.5 trilioni, kuchokera pa $ 1 trilioni mu 2017, kukulitsidwa kuti lipulumutse kapena kulimbikitsa chuma cha USA, kudzera mwaukali komanso kuyesera, kukondoweza pulogalamu.
Mosakayikira, zambiri mwazovuta zachuma zimakondera kulengeza kwachitatu (mwina komaliza) kukwera kwa 2017, pomwe FOMC imaliza misonkhano yawo Lachitatu. Chosiyana ndi ichi ndi chakuti: inflation ikadali pansi pa chandamale cha 2%, malipiro akuchepa, kukula kwa GDP kwangochira, pali mphepo zamkuntho / mkuntho wam'malo otentha kuti zitheke pazachuma, ndi zina zambiri. Mwachidule, pali zina zochepa, zomwe chuma chachuma akhoza kuchepetsa, chiwonetsero china chisanachitike.
Ndiye pali nkhani ya dola yaku US yoti muganizire; yagwa kuchokera kuphompho motsutsana ndi anzawo ambiri kuyambira pomwe Trump adapambana utsogoleri, nkhani yabwino kwa omwe amatumiza kunja ndi opanga poyamba, monga dola yotsika mtengo (poganiza) imalimbikitsa kugulitsa ndikulimbikitsa kukula, koma mitengo yomwe imagulitsidwa kumayiko ena pamapeto pake imawononga ndalama zopangira, pokhapokha onse zipangizo zimapezeka kunyumba. FOMC idzazindikira kuti nthawi ya Goldilocks yopanga, itha kutha. Adzadziwanso kuti USA ndikulowetsa anthu ambiri ndipo pafupifupi 80% yazachuma imayendetsedwa ndi ogula omwe amawononga pafupifupi dollar iliyonse yomaliza yomwe ali nayo; ndalama zowerengera zikuchepa pafupi ndi 3.5% yonse. Dola lokwera pang'ono lingawoneke ngati phindu pachuma, munthawi yochepa mpaka pakati.
Mgwirizano wapakati, kuchokera kwa akatswiri azachuma omwe adafunsidwa ndi mabungwe atolankhani Bloomberg ndi Reuters, sizosintha, kuchokera ku chiwongola dzanja chaposachedwa cha 1.25%. Komabe, ngati mlingowu usasinthe, chidwi chidzawunika mwachidule nkhani yomwe ikutsatiridwa ndi kufalitsa chigamulochi, popeza azimayi adzawunika nthawi zonse zomwe zalembedwa komanso zolankhulidwa, kuti adziwe tsatanetsatane wa nthawi yomwe pepala lomwe lingakhalepo likutha.
Zambiri zazikulu zachuma, pokhudzana ndi mwambowu
Chiwongola dzanja cha 1.25%
Kukula kwa GDP YoY 2.6%
• Kuchuluka kwa ulova 4.4%
• Mtengo wamagetsi 1.9%
Ngongole kuboma ku GDP chiyerekezo 106%
• Avereji ya mapindu a ola lililonse 0.1%
Kukula kwa malipiro YOY 2.95%
• Ngongole zachinsinsi ndi GDP 200%
• Kugulitsa kwamalonda YoY 3.2%
• Kusunga kwanu 3.5%
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