Kodi FOMC idzatsatira kudzipereka kwawo; kukweza mitengo katatu mu 2017?
Pamsonkhano wawo womaliza wa 2017, womwe uzamalizidwa Lachitatu Novembara 1, FOMC (mipando ya ma Feds onse amchigawo), ithetsa msonkhano wawo polengeza chisankho chawo pokhudzana ndi chiwongola dzanja chaposachedwa ku USA. Nthawi zambiri kulengeza kumatsatiridwa ndi msonkhano wa atolankhani komanso / kapena chikalata, chofotokozera zifukwa zomwe zisankhidwe.
Nthawi zambiri pamawunikiridwa mwachidule zolembedwazo, kapena pamsonkhano wa atolankhani, pomwe azachuma azimvetsetsa zowunikira za FOMC ndikuwongolera patsogolo; kodi uthengawu ndiwosokonekera, kapena wopusa? Kodi mipando Yachuma ikuchita mwachinyengo; poyang'ana kukhazikitsanso ndondomeko yazachuma yomwe yakhalapo pazaka zaposachedwa kudzera pakuchepa kwadzidzidzi / kutsika pang'ono komanso kuchepa kwachulukidwe? Kapena apitilizabe kuchita zoyipa; posunga mitengo yotsika ndikuwonetsa kuti kukulitsa kuchuluka sikungachitike, mwachangu, mu 2018?
M'mbuyomu mu Okutobala chiwongola dzanja, kuchoka pa 1.25% mpaka 1.5%, zikuwoneka kuti zikulephera Lachitatu, mogwirizana ndi kudzipereka komwe FOMC idachita koyambirira kwa chaka; kukweza mitengo katatu mu 2017. Komabe, mgwirizano wapano kuchokera kwa azachuma ambiri omwe adafufuza kudzera ku Bloomberg ndi Reuters, tsopano akuwoneka kuti akusakanikirana. Angapo tsopano akuwonetsa kuti chiwongola dzanja chidzatsala pa 1.25% mpaka koyambirira kwa 2018, ngakhale panali zovuta zaposachedwa zaku USA zolimbana ndi zolosera; GDP yakula ngakhale kuwonongeka kwa mphepo yamkuntho kwaposachedwa, inflation ndiyabwino pa 2.2%, kusowa kwa ntchito kuli pafupi zaka 3, malipiro akukwera, kugulitsa kwakanthawi komanso kulimba kwakanthawi ndipo chidaliro cha ogula chikuwoneka kuti chikukwera. Izi zikuwonetsa kuti chuma chili ndi mphamvu zokwanira kuthana ndi kukwera kwamitundumitundu, kuti zisinthe kuchuluka mpaka 2018%, pofika kotala lachitatu la XNUMX.
Njira yodziyimira payokha, kuphatikiza Fed kuyamba kudzipatula pa $ 4.5 trilioni yake, potengera njira yotchedwa "kuchuluka kwamphamvu", inali mfundo yofotokozedwa ndi Janet Yellen ku 2017, yemwe akuwoneka kuti ndiwosayenera kulowa m'malo mwake chisankho cha Trump, ngati mpando wa Fed mu February. Kusintha kumeneku kungathandizenso chisankho cha FOMC; mwina kusankhidwa kwatsopano sikuyenera kutsatira mfundo zam'mbuyomu.
Pomwe chilengezochi chikutulutsidwa, mkati ndi posachedwa msonkhano uliwonse atolankhani uchitike, titha kuyembekeza kuti tiwone mayendedwe mu USD, motsutsana ndi anzawo akulu komanso ambiri mwa anzawo. Mwachilengedwe kayendetsedwe kake kamakhala kodalira kwambiri pamlingo wakukwera kulikonse komanso momwe zimakhalira, kapena kufotokozera nkhani yonse. USD yapeza phindu lalikulu motsutsana ndi anzawo angapo akulu m'masabata aposachedwa, chifukwa chake msika ukhoza kukhala kuti wagulidwa kale pamilingo iliyonse ndipo zovuta (ngati kukwezedwa kwachuma kukulengezedwa) zitha kukhala zochepa. Chomwe chiri chotsimikizika ndikuti kuchuluka kwa kuchuluka kwa circa 0.25% sikumayembekezereka. Komabe, amalonda akuyenera kusintha malo awo mosamala komanso moyenera, chifukwa zosankha za chiwongola dzanja mosakayikira ndichimodzi mwazinthu zofunikira, zazikulu, zochitika pakalendala mchaka komanso momwe msika ungachitikire sizingachitike.
ZINTHU ZOFUNIKA KWAMBIRI ZA DZIKO LAPANSI ZA USA.
Chiwongola dzanja cha 1.25%.
• Kukula kwa GDP 3%.
• Kukula kwa GDP pachaka 2.3%.
• Kuchuluka kwa ntchito 4.2%.
• Kukula kwa malipiro 3.2%.
• CPI (inflation) 2.2%.
• Ngongole ya boma / GDP 106%.
Wophatikiza PMI 55.7.
• Katundu wokhalitsa amaitanitsa 2.2%.
• Ogulitsa malonda 4.4%.
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