CHITSANZO CHA sabata lililonse 7/12 - 11/12 | KUKHALA KWA USD PADZIKO LAPANSI NDI NKHANI YOFUNIKA KUWONETSEDWA KWAMBIRI
Zinthu zingapo zidalamulira sabata yamalonda yomwe imatha Disembala 4. Covid komanso chiyembekezo cha katemera, Brexit, matupi omwalira a kayendetsedwe ka Trump, komanso zokambirana zolimbikitsidwa ndi mabanki apakati ndi maboma. Izi ndi nkhani zopitilira muyeso zachuma zomwe zitha kulongosola momwe zinthu zikuyendera komanso momwe timawonera pama chart ndi maimidwe athu a FX m'masiku ndi milungu ikubwerayi.
Zotsatira za Covid pamisika yamalonda
Ngakhale katemera wa chisangalalo yemwe adachitika mkati mwa sabata, maboma osiyanasiyana akulimbana ndi vuto logawa katemera osakhudza mphamvu zake. Mankhwala a Pfizer amangogwira ntchito pa -70c, chifukwa chake kunyamula mankhwala osayesedwayo kudzera pamagulidwe mpaka kukafika m'manja mwa munthu wina kumaimira ntchito zomwe sizinachitikepo. Komanso, sitikudziwa ngati katemerayu amateteza kusintha kwa asymptomatic kapena kuti kumatenga nthawi yayitali bwanji.
USA yalemba pafupifupi anthu 3,000 akufa ndi 200,000 milandu tsiku lililonse m'masiku aposachedwa ndipo akatswiri amaneneratu kuti manambalawa adzafika pokhoma pokhapokha USA itakhala ndi lamulo lokakamiza kuvala chigoba. Popanda izi, dzikolo likukumana ndi anthu opitilira 450K pofika pa Marichi 1, malinga ndi kafukufuku wa University of John Hopkin. A Joe Biden akufuna kupereka malingaliro kwamasiku 100 atavala mask.
Mosasamala kanthu za kufa kwa Covid ndi kuchuluka kwamilandu yomwe ikufika pamwambamwamba, zilinganizo zaku USA zidayenda patsogolo, kutulutsa zolemba zapamwamba. Palibe chinsinsi chifukwa chake Wall Street ikukula pomwe Main Street ikugwa; Zachuma komanso zoyipa zomwe zatsekedwa m'misika. Palibe umboni wotsikira; Akuluakulu aku America okwana XNUMX miliyoni pakadali pano amalandila phindu pantchito, koma misika imatulutsa mbiri yabwino.
Kutsika kwa USD kumawoneka kuti kulibe kumapeto
Dola yaku US latsika kwambiri pamasabata apitawa. Onse oyang'anira a Trump komanso oyang'anira omwe akubwera a Biden sangayang'anire nkhaniyi.
Dola lofooka lili ndi phindu limodzi; zimapangitsa kugulitsa kunja kutsika mtengo, mbali yomwe ikukwera ndi kukwera kwamitengo, koma mu ZIRP (zero chiwongola dzanja) mfundo zakuthambo ziyenera kusungidwa.
Dola lomwe likugwa ndi zotsatira zosapeweka zamililiyoni zankhaninkhani zomwe boma la Fed ndi USA ladzipereka kuti likhazikitsenso chuma chovutitsidwa ndi Covid. Ngati Congress ndi Senate pamapeto pake zitha kuvomereza gawo lina lolimbikitsira sabata ikubwerayi, titha kuyembekeza kuti dola ingakhale yofooka.
Munthawi yogulitsa ku London Lachisanu m'mawa, index ya dollar (DXY) idagulitsidwa pafupi ndi 90.64. Mukakumbukira kuti index yakhala pafupifupi 100 pazaka zaposachedwa, kugwa kumatha kuyerekeka. DXY ili pafupi -6% chaka mpaka pano, ndikutsika -1.29% sabata iliyonse.
Mtengo wa USD poyerekeza ndi euro umayesanso kusowa kwa chikhumbo chokhala ndi madola. Ndikofunika kudziwa kuti ECB ikugwiritsa ntchito mfundo za ZIRP ndi NIRP zomwe siziyenera kutanthauza kuti euro ndi njira yabwino. EUR / USD inali kugulitsa 0.13% mgawo lam'mawa; zakwera 2.93% pamwezi ndi 8.89% chaka mpaka pano.
Pa 1.216 ndalama zogulitsidwa kwambiri zikugulitsa pamlingo wosawoneka kuyambira Epulo-Meyi 2018. Mukawonedwa pa tchati cha tsiku ndi tsiku, zomwe zikuwoneka zikuwoneka kumapeto kwa Novembala, ndipo amalonda oyendetsa akuyenera kuwunika momwe zinthu ziliri mosamala mwina posintha kutsatira kwawo kumaima kuti awonetsetse kuti apeza phindu.
Brexit yomwe ikubwera siinafike pamtengo wabwino kwambiri
UK tsopano yatsala ndi masiku 27 kuti ichoke pamalonda a mayiko aku EU a 27, ndipo ngakhale boma la UK likukakamiza mabodza opulumutsa nkhope kumapeto komaliza, chowonadi chotsimikizika chikutsalirabe; UK ikutaya mwayi wamsika umodzi. Anthu, katundu, ndalama ndi ntchito sizithanso kuyenda mosagundana popanda ma tariff.
Ofufuza ndi ochita malonda pamsika akuyenera kuchotsa ma chart awo ndikumvetsetsa chisokonezo chomwe chingachitike kuyambira Januware 1. UK ndi chuma cha 80% chodalira ntchito ndi ogula, ma mile a XNUMX a ma lorry omwe ali kumbuyo kwa madoko aku UK azingoyang'ana. Mabungwe omwe akukwera kale akuuza anthu kuti ayembekezere mashelufu opanda kanthu m'misika.
Kufooka kwa dollar kuderalo kwakhala kopindulitsa kwa GBP; chabwino chakwera kwambiri motsutsana ndi USD pazifukwa ziwiri; kufooka kwa dollar komanso chiyembekezo cha Brexit. Kutha kwa USD m'masabata aposachedwa mwina kwadzetsa kusatetezeka kozungulira GBP.
Pamsonkano wa London pa Disembala 4, GBP / USD inali kugulitsa -0.25% magulu onse awiri akukambirana ku Brexit atulutsa ziganizo zosonyeza kuti zokambirana zikugwa.
Gulu laku Britain lidayang'ana dala pantchito zausodzi, zomwe monga bizinesi zimawerengera zosakwana 0.1% ya UK GDP. Nkhani yakunyanja imapangitsa chidwi chokomera dziko lawo komanso kukonda dziko lako pakati pa a Brits omwe amawerenga zochepa zochepa zaubongo.
GBP / USD yakwera ndi 2.45% pamwezi ndipo 2.40% chaka mpaka pano. Mtengo wapano uli patali ndi mgwirizano pakati pa USD ndi GBP ofufuza ambiri molosera ananeneratu nthawi ino chaka chatha, mliri wa Black Swan wakhala ndi zotsatira zosayembekezereka komanso zosayembekezereka.
Sterling yalembetsa zopindulitsa motsutsana ndi yuro mu 2020, ndipo koyambirira, magawo awiri amtundu wa EUR / GBP adagulitsidwa ku 0.905 kukwera 0.33% pomwe akuwopseza kuti aphwanya R1. EUR / GBP yakwera chaka 6.36% mpaka pano. Kukula kumeneku, kuphatikiza ndalama za antipodean za NZD ndi AUD zomwe zikukhalanso motsutsana ndi GBP, zikuwonetsa kufooka konse komanso mantha kuti agwire mapaundi aku UK. Pondayo ilinso pansi -2.31% poyerekeza ndi yen mu 2020.
Golide adanyezimira ngati malo otetezeka mu 2020
Ngakhale omwe ali ndi PhDs ya physics amavutika kuti afotokoze chifukwa chake misika yamalonda yakwera ku USA ndi maiko ena kuti alembe zambiri, pomwe malo otetezeka monga Swiss franc, yen ya Japan ndi miyala yamtengo wapatali asangalala kwambiri.
Golide yakwera mpaka 20% mpaka pano pomwe siliva ndi 34.20%. Siliva walowa pansi pa radar. Pomwe vuto loyamba la mliri wa Covid lidasokoneza misika mu Marichi ndi Epulo, siliva wathupi anali wovuta kupeza.
Kupatula kupeza PM kudzera mu digito / pafupifupi kumatanthauza kuti kugula mu mawonekedwe ake kumakhala kokwanira kwa osunga ndalama ang'onoang'ono. Siliva imodzi ndi yochepera $ 25, golidi imodzi ndi $ 1840. Ndi chisankho chosavuta kwa osungitsa ndalama ang'ono ang'ono (koma odalirika), omwe adasiya kudalira maboma komanso ndalama.
Zochitika za kalendala yachuma sabata yamawa kuti zisinthe
Amalonda akuyenera kuwunika zochitika zachuma ndi zandale zomwe zatchulidwazi sabata yamawa, koposa zonse zomwe zatulutsidwa ndi zolembedwa zomwe zalembedwa kalendala. Tiyerekeze kuti boma la USA silingavomereze kukweza ndalama zambiri komanso ngati milandu ya Covid ndi imfa zikukwera padziko lonse lapansi komanso ngati mavuto a Brexi sangathe kuthetsedwa. Zikatero, USD, GBP ndi EUR zidzakhudzidwa.
Komabe, kutulutsidwa kwa zinthu pakalendala ndi zochitika zidakali ndi mphamvu yosunthira misika yathu yamtsogolo, ndipo sabata yamawa kuli zochitika zosangalatsa zomwe zakonzedwa.
Kuwerengedwa kwamalingaliro osiyanasiyana a ZEW ku Germany kudzafalitsidwa Lachiwiri, Disembala 8. Zonenedweratu kuti ndi zakugwa, zomwe zitha kuwonetsa kuti magawo aku Germany akumvabe kukhudzidwa kwachepa kwokhudzana ndi Covid.
Canada yalengeza chigamulo chake chokhudza chiwongola dzanja Lachitatu 9 ndipo kuneneratu sikungasinthe. CAD yakwera ndi 1.67% poyerekeza ndi USD sabata latha. Ngati BoC ichepetsa mtengo kuchokera pa 0.25% mpaka 0.00%, zopindazi zitha kukhala zovuta. Lachinayi a UK ONS adzalengeza zatsopano za GDP. Zonenedweratu za Reuters zakugwa kuchokera ku 1% kukula komwe kudalembetsedwa mwezi watha. Kuwerenga kwa QoQ kumayeneranso kutsika kuchokera ku 15.5% yolembedwera Q2. ECB iwonetsanso zisankho zawo; Mtengo wobwereketsa ukuyembekezeredwa kukhala pa 0.00%, pomwe chiwongola dzanja sichikhala pa -0.25%. Palibe malingaliro akuti ECB itenga mutuwo pansi pa 0.00% panthawiyi pamavuto a Covid.
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