Chithunzi Cha Msika Sabata Lililonse 31-4 / 8 | Kutulutsidwa kwa NFP, Ulova mu EU & AU, zisankho zaku UK, ma CPIs ndi ma PMI ndizofunikira kwambiri pazochitika zazikulu za kalendala
Sabata imatha ndikulemba ntchito yotchuka ya NFP. Zomwe sizikuperekanso zozimitsa moto zam'mbuyomu, chifukwa chokhazikika pantchito ku USA; Akuluakulu ambiri a Fed amawona kusowa kwa ntchito pafupifupi 5% kukhala "ntchito yathunthu". Komabe, kutulutsidwaku kumatha kusunthabe misika, ngati kusindikiza kowopsa kukufalitsidwa. Zambiri za ADP zomwe zidasindikizidwa Lachitatu nthawi zambiri zimawonedwa ngati zoneneratu kusindikiza kwa NFP.
Canada ifotokozanso ziwerengero zosiyanasiyana za ntchito / ulova, pomwe ulova ku Germany ukuyembekezeka kusasinthika, monganso Eurozone. CPI yaku Europe imamasulidwa, monganso GDP. MPC yaku UK iulula zisankho zake.
Kuwerenga kosiyanasiyana kwa PMI ndi ISM kumafalitsidwa mkati mwa sabata; kuwerenga kwa USA, China ndi Canada pakupanga kumaonekera monga kutulutsidwa kotchuka kwambiri. Zigwiritsidwe ntchito ku USA zidzaululidwa.
Lingaliro la chiwongola dzanja cha Australia lidzayang'aniridwa mosamala, monganso momwe ziliri pantchito / ulova ku New Zealand. Zambiri zogulitsa ku Australia zidzafalitsidwa ndipo RBA ipereka ndondomeko ya ndalama.
Sabata imayamba Lamlungu madzulo ndi zomwe zapangidwa mu June kuchokera ku Japan kuchokera ku Japan. Mu Meyi kuwerenga kudabwera kukula kwa 6.5%, chiwerengerochi chapamwamba kuposa izi chikuyembekezeka. Pambuyo pake Japan idzatulutsanso zidziwitso zakapangidwe ka magalimoto, zomwe zikukula pa 5.5% YoY.
Lamlungu / Lolemba imawonekeranso pagulu lazofalitsa zomwe zatulutsidwa ndi Australia ndi New Zealand, zonse zomwe zimawoneka ngati zotsika mpaka zapakatikati pazomwe zachitika. China yopanga PMI ikuyimira chochitika choyamba chokhudza sabata, chomwe chikuyembekezeka kubwera ku 51.4 ya Julayi, kutsika kuchokera ku 51.7 mu Juni. Monga (mwina) injini yopanga kukula kwapadziko lonse lapansi, chi China ichi chimayang'aniridwa mosamala ndipo chimangokhala 1.7 pamwamba pamiyeso 50 yomwe imalekanitsa kupindika ndi kukula, gulu lalikulu lingakhudze malingaliro pakuyerekeza kwakukula padziko lonse lapansi.
Makhalidwe osiyanasiyana a ngongole ochokera ku UK adzasindikizidwa, ndi nkhawa kuti ngongole za ogula zikufika pamlingo wodetsa nkhawa, ziwerengero zaposachedwa pamwezi ziziwonetsedwa, kuwona ngati ndalama za mwezi watha za $ 1.7b zaphwanyidwa. Kuchuluka kwa kusowa kwa ntchito ku Eurozone kudzaululidwa Lolemba, kukuyembekezeredwa kuti sikungasinthe pa 9.3% mu Juni. CPI ya bloc ya ndalama imodzi ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe yosasintha, ku 1.3% YoY ya Julayi. Kuchokera ku USA cholozera cha maneja wogula chasindikizidwa, akuyembekezeka kutsikira ku 59 kuchokera ku 65.7, pomwe USA ikuyembekezera kugulitsa nyumba ikuyembekezeka kukwera ndi 1% pamwezi.
Lachiwiri Zochitika zikuluzikulu zachuma zimayamba ndi chiwongola dzanja cha Australia, pali chiyembekezo chochepa, pakati pa akatswiri azachuma, kuti milingoyo ikwezedwa kuposa 1.5% yake. Chidwi chimatembenukira ku Europe, kusowa kwa ntchito ku Germany kukuyembekezeka kukhala pa 5.7%. GDP yaku Europe ikuyembekezeredwa kuti isasinthe pa 1.9%. Kuchokera ku USA timalandila zambiri pazakugwiritsa ntchito ndi momwe akugwiritsidwira ntchito akuti akwera kuposa 1.4% yake yapano. Zambiri za ISM zimasindikizidwa ku USA, kupanga ndi ntchito ndizofunikira, ndikupanga kunenedweratu kuti kudzafika 55.6, kuchokera ku 57.8. Chakumadzulo New Zealand imasindikiza zosowa zawo zaposachedwa pantchito za YoY, zikuyembekezeka kuti zisasinthe pa 5.7%.
Lachitatu m'mawa mkulu wa BOJ a Mr. Funo alankhula ku Sapporo, patangopita maola ochepa ku Japan kudalira ogwiritsa ntchito kudalira kumasulidwa. Pambuyo pake m'mawa timaphunzira za PMI zaposachedwa kwambiri ku UK, zomwe zikuyembekezeka kuti zizikhala pafupi ndi kuwerenga kwa Juni kwa 54.8. Mtengo wazopanga za Eurozone ukuyembekezeredwa kuti ukhale pafupi ndi kukwera kwa 3.3% koyambirira komwe kudalembedwa mu Meyi. Titawona chidwi ku USA, tidzalandira zatsopano za ADP, zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa mu 184k mu Julayi, izi zikuyimira kukwera kwakukulu pantchito zapadera za 158k zopangidwa mu Juni. Mafuta a WTI akukwera mtengo pamasiku aposachedwa, mulingo wazowerengera za DOE udzawonedwa mosamala, pazizindikiro zilizonse zosintha.
Lachinayi Nkhani zachuma zimayamba ndi ntchito zaku Japan ndi ma PMI angapo, kusintha pang'ono kumayembekezeredwa, zomwezi zikunenedweratu ku ma PMI ofanana aku China. Maiko a Eurozone amatsata Asia ndi ma PMI ambiri, monganso UK, komanso mautumiki ndi kuphatikiza. ECB ifalitsa nkhani zachuma ndipo tidzalandira zatsopano zakugulitsa kwa Eurozone, zomwe zikuyembekezeka kukhala pafupi ndi chiwonetsero chomaliza cha 2.6% cha YoY. Pambuyo pake, chidwi chimatembenukira ku BoE yaku UK ndi chisankho cha komiti ya mfundo za chiwongola dzanja. Pakalembedwe kocheperako ka 0.25%, kuyambira pomwe chisankho cha referendum cha Juni 2016, pali chiyembekezo chochepa chosintha, kapena chosintha pazomwe zilipo pakadali pano za $ 435b. A BoE apitiliza lipoti lawo la inflation, CPI ndi RPI azisintha pang'ono. Monga sterling yapezera posachedwa poyerekeza ndi dollar yaku US, mantha oyamba a Brexit akuwoneka kuti atha.
Pamene chidwi chikusintha ku New York kutsegulidwa, lipoti la PMI likupitilira, ntchito za ISM zimasindikizidwa, ndikuyembekeza kugwa, kuyambira 57.4 mpaka 56.8. Kulamula kwa mafakitole a Juni akuyembekezeka kusintha mpaka kukula kwa 1.1%, kuchokera pakugwa modabwitsa -0.8% mu Meyi.
Friday mboni zam'mawa zogulitsa pamalonda aku Australia zidawululidwa, mawu a RBA asanachitike, kubwera chigamulo cha chiwongola dzanja chitawululidwa Lachiwiri. Maganizo kenako amatembenukira ku Germany; Malamulo amafakitoleti akuyembekezeka kukhalabe pafupifupi 3.7% kukula kwa Juni, pomwe PMI yomanga ku Germany ya Julayi ikuyembekezeranso kupereka chiwerengerocho ku 55.1 kuyambira Juni.
Pomwe chidwi chathu chikusamukira ku North America, tikulandila zambiri zakusowa kwa ntchito / kusowa kwa ntchito ku Canada, azachuma adzafuna kusintha konseko pantchito komanso kuti kusowa kwa ntchito kutsike kuchokera pa 6.5%. Kenako timayamba zochitika zazikulu zachuma zomwe zidachitika tsikuli; NFP, deta yolipira pamunda. Pambuyo pa kukweza modabwitsa mwezi watha; mpaka 222k, kuneneratu ndikubwerera ku chithunzi cha 175k cha Julayi. Avereji ya ndalama zikuyembekezeka kukhala zosasinthika, pakukula kwa 2.5% YoY.
Chithunzithunzi cha Msika Sabata ndi gulu la FXCC Research & Analysis
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