ZOKHUDZA MALO OTSOGOLERA PAMASabata 30 / 10-03 / 11 | Zosankha zazikuluzikulu za chiwongola dzanja kuchokera ku BoE ndi FOMC, kuphatikiza chidziwitso cha NFP pantchito, zimapereka chidziwitso cha sabata yayikulu yazachuma
Sabata yomwe ikubwerayi ndi sabata lotanganidwa kwambiri chifukwa chofalitsa nkhani zambiri, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimatchedwa "deta yolimba". Zochitika zapaderazi ndi zisankho za chiwongola dzanja kuchokera ku UK ndi USA komanso lipoti lantchito ya NFP pamwezi ku USA, lofalitsidwa Lachisanu loyamba la mwezi uliwonse. Zambiri za CPI zaku Germany zikuwululidwa, malipoti osiyanasiyana a Bank of Japan, EZ ndi Canada GDP, chidaliro cha ogula ku USA, NZ ndi ulova waku Germany, ndikuwerengedwanso kwa PMI ndi ISM.
Banki yayikulu yaku UK ikuyembekezeka kulengeza kukwera kwamitengo, kwa nthawi yoyamba pafupifupi zaka khumi, ikakumana Lachinayi; kuchokera 0.24% mpaka 0.5%. Pomwe kuneneratu kwa FOMC, "atsogoleri a Feds" akangomaliza msonkhano Lachitatu, asakanikirana; ofufuza ambiri tsopano akuneneratu kuti sipadzakhala kusintha, kuchokera pa chiwongola dzanja cha 1.25% cha chiwongola dzanja cha Fed. Amalonda a FX akuyenera kukhala atcheru chifukwa kutulutsidwa konseko kungakhudze phindu la sterling ndi dola yaku US, mosasamala kanthu za ziwongola dzanja zomwe apanga.
Lachisanu loyamba la mweziwo ndi lipoti lantchito ya NFP, yomwe idagwa mpaka -33k yomwe idanenedwa mu Seputembala, yomwe idakhudzidwa ndi mphepo yamkuntho ku USA, kubwereranso ku ntchito 330k zopangidwa mu Okutobala zikuyembekezeredwa. Komabe, kuchira pang'onopang'ono kwa ntchito kumatha kuwonetsa mavuto ena azachuma mu chuma cha USA.
On Sunday madzulo Manambala ogulitsa ku Japan akuyamba kutumiza sabata yonse yamakalata azachuma, chiyembekezo chikuyembekezeka kusintha kwa MoM pa -1.7% yomwe idasindikizidwa mu Ogasiti. Zowonera zimapereka tsatanetsatane kuchokera kwa oyang'anira mabanki aku Switzerland amafalitsidwa mwachikhalidwe Lolemba lililonse kuyambitsa deta yaku Europe sabata iliyonse, zidziwitso zomwe nthawi zambiri zimatha kusunthira phindu la Swissie, ngati madipoziti amasintha modabwitsa sabata sabata. Zambiri zakasitomala ku UK pangongole komanso makamaka ngongole zopezeka m'malo okhala zawululidwa, zomwe zitha kukhala zofunikira chifukwa ndalama zomwe ogula akugwiritsa ntchito mdzikolo, zikuwoneka kuti zatsika posachedwa. Ku Eurozone kuwerengeka kwachikhulupiliro kudzaperekedwa, nthawi yamasana CPI yaku Germany idawululidwa, ikuyembekezeka kuti isasinthe pa 1.8%. Chakumadzulo Japan ikufalitsa kuchuluka kwake kwa anthu osagwira ntchito, pakadali pano pa 2.8%, kuchuluka kwa mafakitale ndi ziwerengero zakuwononga mabanja zikuwululidwa.
Lachiwiri akupitiliza Lolemba kutha, ndi chidziwitso chaku Japan; lipoti lalingaliro la BOJ liperekedwa, monganso momwe ndalama za banki yayikulu zidzakhalire. Kudalira kwamabizinesi aku New Zealand komanso mbiri yakugulitsa nyumba kuchokera ku Australia imasindikizidwa motsatizana, kuwerengedwa kwazikhulupiriro kawiri kokhudza chuma cha UK; kuwerenga kwa chidaliro kwa ogula kwa GfK ndi barometer ya bizinesi ya Lloyds. Pambuyo pake m'mawa, a Kuroda a BOJ achita msonkhano ndi atolankhani kuti akambirane za mfundo zandalama zomwe zidasindikizidwa koyambirira. Ma PMI opanga komanso osapanga a China amasindikizidwa m'mawa kwambiri, monganso aku Japan: deta yopanga magalimoto, nyumba zoyambira, malamulo omanga ndi chidaliro chamabizinesi ang'onoang'ono. Ziwerengero zaposachedwa kwambiri za France komanso Eurozone zaposachedwa pamwezi komanso zapachaka za GDP zidzaululidwa, France ikuyembekezeka kukhala ndi 2.1% Q3 kukula kwa YoY, pomwe Eurozone ikuyembekezeka kusindikiza kukwera kwa 2.3% Q3 YoY. Eurozone CPI ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe yosasinthika, kuchokera pamlingo wapano wa 1.5% wapachaka. GDP yaku Canada ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe (kapena kufupi ndi), mulingo wokulirapo wa 3.8% YoY. Deta yamilandu yamilandu ya Case Shiller ku USA yasindikizidwa Lachiwiri, kusintha kwamitengo ikulu ikulu ikulu ikulu ikulu ikulu ikulu ikulu ikulu ikulu ikulu ikulu ya 5.8% YoY. Chidaliro cha ogula ku USA mu Okutobala chikuyembekezeka kukwera modzidzimutsa, mpaka 120 kuchokera ku 119.8. Zambiri za Australasia zimatseka tsikulo; Kuchuluka kwa ulova ku New Zealand ndi magwiridwe antchito a AiG aku Australia pakupanga, ndizofalitsa.
Lachitatu zimayamba ndikufalitsa kwa China ku Caixan komwe kumapangidwa PMI, pakadali pano pa 51 ya Seputembala, kuwerengera kumangokhala pang'ono pamwamba pa mzere wa 50, womwe umalekanitsa kukula ndi kupindika. Nkhani zodziwika bwino ku Europe zimayamba ndikujambula kwa UK PMI, pano ku 55.9. Kupanga ma PMI kumasindikizidwanso ku Canada ndi USA, monganso kuwerenga kwa ISM zingapo ku USA. FOMC yaku USA iulula zisankho zawo zaposachedwa pamitengo ya chiwongola dzanja, pakadali pano pa 1.25%, akatswiri azachuma ambiri akuwoneka ogawanika pazotheka kukwera mpaka 1.5%.
Lachinayi imayamba ndikuvomereza zomanga ndi kuchuluka kwa malonda kuchokera ku Australia, kuwerenga kwa chidaliro kwa ogula ku Japan kuwululidwa. Kugulitsa kwa ku Switzerland komanso kuwerenga kwaposachedwa kwa chidaliro kumafalitsidwanso, pambuyo pake ziwerengero zazikulu kwambiri zakusowa kwa ntchito ku Germany zimaperekedwa, ndikuyembekeza kuti mutu wankhani usasinthe pa 5.6%. PMI waposachedwa kwambiri ku UK adzaululidwa, akuyembekezeredwa kuti abwinanso pang'ono kuchokera pa 48.1 yolembetsa mu Seputembala. Banki yayikulu yaku UK, Bank of England, ikuyembekezeka kukweza chiwongola dzanja chachikulu kufika pa 0.5%, kuchokera pakali pano pa 0.25%. A BoE adzalengezanso lipoti lawo lakumapeto kwachuma kuti ligwirizane ndi lingaliro lamayiko ena, kuchepetsa kufufuma kwachuma kukhala chifukwa chachikulu chomwe zingakwere, mosiyana ndi mphamvu zilizonse zachuma ku UK. Milandu yopanda ntchito sabata iliyonse komanso manambala opitilira ku USA akuwululidwa, pa "sabata la NFP", izi nthawi zambiri zimakhudza kwambiri.
Friday imayamba ndi chidziwitso chakugulitsa ku Australia, ndipo ma China a Caixan PMIs azithandizo ndi zophatikiza, a Markit PMIs azithandizo za UK ndi gulu lawo amafalitsidwanso monga momwe aku Britain akusungira. Kusiyanitsa kulikonse, kuyambira $ 554m yolembedwa mu Seputembala, kumatha kukhudza mtengo wa sterling. Kusowa kwa ntchito ku Canada mu Okutobala kukuyembekezeredwa kukhala kosalekeza ku 6.2%. Chiwerengero cha anthu omwe salipira minda pamwezi, NFP, chikuyembekezeka kudzabwezeretsa mphepo yamkuntho -33k ndi mphepo yamkuntho zomwe zidakhudza kuchuluka kwa ntchito mu Seputembala. Zoneneratu ndikukula kwa ntchito kwa circa 330k mu Okutobala. Kuchuluka kwa kusowa kwa ntchito, maola ogwira ntchito komanso kuchuluka kwa malipiro kudzasindikizidwanso, kutsagana ndi kuwerenga kofunikira kwa NFP. Kuwerenga kosapanga kwa ISM kudzaululidwa, kuyerekezera kuti kugwera 58, kuchokera ku 59.8 yolembetsedwa mu Okutobala. Kuchepa kwamalonda pamwezi wa USA pamwezi wa Seputembala, akuyembekezeka kuwonongeka mpaka $ 44.0, kuchokera - $ 42.4.
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