Misika YAMASabata YONSE 18 / 9-22 / 9 | Kodi FOMC yalengeza chiwongola dzanja chomaliza ku USA ku 2017 Lachitatu, kapena azisunga ufa wawo mpaka kotala komaliza?
Mosakayikira, chochitika chachikulu cha kalendala yazachuma cha sabata ikubwerayi, ndi chisankho cha FOMC pa chiwongola dzanja, chomwe chidzawululidwe Lachitatu. Pakali pano pa 1.25%, chiwerengero cha FOMC/Fed chawonjezeka kawiri mu 2017 ndipo FOMC idapereka lingaliro kumayambiriro kwa chaka, ndi mapanga achizolowezi ndi chilankhulo chodziwika bwino chomwe chimalola malo okwanira kuti abwererenso, kuti pakhale katatu kukwera. 2017.
Dola idatsika kwambiri mu 2017, ngakhale kuti chiwongola dzanja chakwera chikukwera kuyambira chisankho cha Trump, pomwe ma index a US equity adakwera, mosagwirizana ndi dola. Classic economic Orthodoxy imatsimikizira kuti; Kutsika kwa ndalama zapakhomo kumawonjezera katundu wa kunja ndi kupanga, pamene kumapangitsa kuti katunduyo akhale wokwera mtengo ndipo Trump adakakamizika kupititsa patsogolo kupanga ndi kutumiza kunja mwa "kuika America patsogolo". Komabe, chowopsa ndi chakuti nthawi ya Goldilocks imakondwera poyamba. Pambuyo pake; ngati mitengo yolowetsa/yoitanitsa ikukwera kwa opanga kenako otumiza kunja, ndiye kuti chiphunzitso cha zachuma chimagwa, popeza opanga samamvanso phindu la ndalama zawo zapakhomo zotsika mtengo.
Kuchulukirachulukira, kuphwanya mbiri, kukwera kwamisika yamalonda ku USA mchaka cha 2017, kudachitika makamaka chifukwa chakupumula kwamisonkho kwa Trump, zomwe zitha kukulitsa ndalama ndi phindu kumakampani aku USA, kukwera sikunayambike chifukwa chopeza bwino pazokha. Chuma cha USA ndi chofooka kwambiri kuposa zizindikiro zambiri zolimba zomwe zingatipangitse kukhulupirira, chifukwa chake FOMC ikhoza kuvomerezana ndi zolosera zamgwirizano (zoperekedwa ndi akatswiri azachuma omwe adafunsidwa), ndikusankha chiwongola dzanja chosasinthika, pakadali pano.
Sabata imayamba Lamlungu madzulo ndi deta yaposachedwa ya mtengo wanyumba yaku UK kuchokera ku kampani yabizinesi ya Rightmove, yomwe imafalitsa mitengo yofunsa (yosagulitsidwa mitengo), yomwe idatsika ndi 0.9% mu Ogasiti, kukwera pang'ono kumanenedwa, kusunga kukula kwapachaka kuposa 3%.
Lolemba mboni zamkaka zochokera ku New Zealand, njira yofunikira kwambiri yowonera momwe chuma chadziko chikugwirira ntchito, chifukwa chodalira kwambiri mkaka ndi ufa wa mkaka monga zotumiza ku Asia. Mitengo ya katundu ku China imawululidwanso kumayambiriro kwa Lolemba m'mawa, zomwe zidzayang'aniridwa mosamala chifukwa cha zizindikiro zapakhomo, kufooka kwachuma. Misika yaku Europe ikatsegulidwa, deta yaku Swiss sight deposits imasindikizidwa, kuwerenga komwe sikuyenera kunyalanyazidwa ngati (ngakhale kutsika kochepa) kumatha kukhudza mtengo wa CHF (Swissie). Eurozone CPI ikuyembekezeka kubwera pafupi ndi chiwonjezeko chaposachedwa cha 1.3% YoY chomwe chidalembetsedwa mu Julayi. Pamene chidwi chikutembenukira ku USA, ndondomeko ya msika wa nyumba ya NAHB idzawululidwa. Pambuyo pake, USA imakhala ndi bwanamkubwa wa Bank of England Mark Carney, pamene akukamba nkhani ku IMF ku Washington. Madzulo New Zealand imapereka kuwerengera kwaposachedwa kwa makasitomala, koperekedwa ndi gulu lakubanki la Westpac.
Lachiwiri zochitika zazikulu za kalendala yazachuma, zimayamba ndi banki yapakati ku Australia (RBA) kusindikiza mphindi za msonkhano kumayambiriro kwa mwezi uno, pomwe idaganiza zosunga chiwongola dzanja chosasinthika pa 1.50%. Deta yamitengo yanyumba yaku Australia idzawululidwanso. Pamene Europe ikutsegula, mfundo zazikulu zachuma zokhudzana ndi akaunti yamakono ya Eurozone ya July zimaperekedwa, zowonetseratu ndizofanana ndi June. Pazowonjezera zozungulira + €21.2b, yerekezerani ndi kusiyanitsa ndi $116b kupereŵera kwa USA komwe kunalembedwa mu Q1 2017, kuneneratu kuti kudzachepa pang'ono, ikasindikizidwa nthawi ya 12:30pm GMT. Kafukufuku wokhudzana ndi zachuma a ZEW, ku Germany ndi Eurozone akusindikizidwa, kuyembekezera ndi kuwerenga kofanana ndi August. Pamene misika ya USA ikutsegulidwa, nyumba zoyambira zikuyembekezeredwa kusonyeza kukula kwa 2.2% YoY, kusintha kwakukulu pa -4.8% kugwa komwe kunalembedwa mu July. Mitengo yamtengo wapatali ku US ikuyembekezeka kukwera kufika pa 0.4% mu August, kuchokera ku 0.1% mu July, ndondomeko yamtengo wapatali yogulitsa kunja ikuyembekezeka kugwa ku 0.2% pamwezi. Madzulo ku New Zealand ndalama zomwe zili mu akaunti ya New Zealand zimawululidwa, monga momwe zimakhalira ndi malonda aku Japan.
Lachitatu imayamba ndi bwanamkubwa Lowe waku Australia's RBA kukamba nkhani ku Perth, kutsatiridwa ndi mndandanda wotsogola wa Westpac waku Australia ndi chidziwitso cha ntchito zaluso chikusindikizidwa. Pamene misika yaku Europe ikukonzekera kutsegulidwa, mitengo yaposachedwa yaku Germany (MoM ndi YoY) imasindikizidwa. Kuyikirako kumasinthira ku chuma cha UK, ndi zomwe zatulutsidwa posachedwa, malonda akuyembekezeka kutsika mpaka 0.1% mu Ogasiti, kutsika mpaka 1.4% YoY kukula, chifukwa chachuma chomwe chimadalira gawo lautumiki kugwa uku (ngati zikuyenera kukhala). zolondola), zidzayimira kugunda kwa magwiridwe antchito aku UK. Pamene chidwi chikupita ku USA, kubwereketsa ndalama ndi deta yogulitsa nyumba zimasindikizidwa, pamodzi ndi zida zamakono za Lachitatu. Chochitika chachikulu chachuma cha sabata; chiwongola dzanja cha FOMC (Fed), chimawululidwa nthawi ya 18:00 GMT. Pakali pano pa 1.25%, akatswiri azachuma omwe adafunsidwa ndi Reuters ndi Bloomberg, akuwoneka kuti akugawanika pa zolosera za kukwera, kuvomerezana konse sikunasinthe. Madzulo a New Zealand chiwerengero chaposachedwa kwambiri cha Q2 YoY chasindikizidwa, chiwerengero chaposachedwa cha 2.5% chikuyembekezeka kusungidwa.
Lachinayi Zambiri zachuma zimayamba ndi ndondomeko yazachuma ku Japan, yomwe idzawunikiridwa bwino chifukwa cha kusintha kwaposachedwa kwa GDP yaku Japan, ndikuwonetsa kuti anthu odziwika bwino.
Pulogalamu ya Abenomics ikhoza kugwira ntchito. Mndandanda wa zochitika zonse zamakampani ku Japan mu Julayi udzawululidwanso, monganso kukula kwa malonda ogulitsa mu Ogasiti. Pambuyo pa tsikulo, bwanamkubwa wa BOJ Kuroda adzachita msonkhano wa atolankhani, pambuyo pa zotsatira za ndondomeko ya ndalama zomwe zakhudzidwa ndi khalidwe la msika. Pamene misika ya ku Ulaya ikukonzekera kutsegula Swiss: malonda a malonda, zolosera zachuma za dziko, ziwerengero za ndalama, zogulitsa kunja ndi zogulitsa kunja zimatulutsidwa. Ngakhale zalembedwa ngati zochitika zotsika kapena zapakatikati, kuchulukirachulukira kwa kutulutsa kwachangu kotereku, kumatha kusuntha mtengo wa Swiss Franc, ngati deta ingadabwitse msika. Madzulo kuwerengedwa kwa chidaliro cha ogula ku Eurozone kudzatulutsidwa. Zolemba zaposachedwa za ECB zachuma zasindikizidwa. Kenako timasunthira mwachangu pazambiri zaku UK, zokhudzana ndi momwe chuma chaboma chilili. Kuchokera ku USA: Zolemba za mlungu ndi mlungu zopanda ntchito zimawululidwa, monganso zomwe zikupitilira, zizindikiro zotsogola zaposachedwa komanso malingaliro abizinesi a Philly Fed. Kusintha kwa ndalama za eni nyumba kumasindikizidwanso, komwe nthawi zambiri kumagwirizana kwambiri ndi kuchuluka kwa ngongole kapena ndalama zomwe zimagulitsidwa.
Friday imayang'aniridwa ndi ndondomeko yotulutsa chuma ku Ulaya; GDP yaku France ya Q2 ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe pafupifupi 1.8%, ma PMI atatu ofunikira aku France: ntchito, kupanga ndi kuphatikiza, zimasindikizidwa. Mndandanda womwewo wa PMIs umasindikizidwa ku Germany ndi Eurozone. Pamene chidwi chikupita ku North America, CPI ya Canada imasindikizidwa, pakali pano 1.2% YoY mu July, ndi chiwerengero cha MoM chikubwera pa ziro, palibe chiyembekezo chowonjezeka kwambiri. Zambiri zogulitsa ku Canada zimatulutsidwanso. Masabata ofunika kwambiri amatha ndi Markit PMIs ku USA; ntchito, kupanga ndi kuphatikizika, ziyenera kudziwidwa kuti ngakhale ali ndi mbiri yofunikira ngati chizindikiro chotsogola, zowerengera za Markit PMI ku USA zimakonda kukhala zotsika kuposa ma PMI a ISM, malinga ndi momwe msika umakhudzidwira ku USA. Kuwerengera kwa Baker Hughes kukukulirakulira kwaposachedwa, chifukwa cha mphepo yamkuntho ku USA ndikumaliza zomwe zatulutsidwa sabata ino.
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