MALO OGULITSIRA Sabata limodzi 11 / 12-15 / 12 | Mabanki apakati adzawunikiridwa kwambiri sabata ikubwerayi pomwe FOMC, ECB ndi BoE onse awulula zisankho zawo zaposachedwa
Pamene tikulowa m'masabata omaliza a chaka chamalonda, mabanki atatu akutsogola adzaulula zisankho zawo zomaliza za 2017, pamitengo ya chiwongola dzanja ndi mfundo zina zandalama, sabata yamawa. Mabanki onse aku Europe; ECB ndi Bank of England zikuyembekezeka kusunga mitengo; banki yaku UK ku 0.5% ndi ECB pa zero, ngakhale oyendetsa ndalama azingoyang'ana nkhani iliyonse yomwe ikutsatiridwa kapena kutulutsa atolankhani, kuti adziwe zakuwongolera mtsogolo mu 2018.
Komabe, FOMC, yomwe ndi komiti yomwe ili ndi mipando yonse ya Federal Reserve, ikuyembekezeka kulengeza chiwongola dzanja kumapeto kwa msonkhano wawo wamasiku awiri Lachitatu nthawi ya 19:00 pm GMT sabata yamawa. Mtengo wapano ndi 1.25% ndipo malingaliro onse, ochokera azachuma omwe adafunsidwa ndi mabungwe atolankhani a Bloomberg ndi Reuters, akukwera mpaka 1.5%. Kukula kumeneku kumakwaniritsa kudzipereka kopangidwa ndi mpando wa Fed ndi FOMC koyambirira kwa chaka; kukweza chiwongola dzanja chokwera katatu mchaka.
Kuyang'ana mwachilengedwe kudzatengera msonkhano wa atolankhani wochitidwa ndi a Janet Yellen, omwe tsopano ndi omwe akutuluka a Fed, kuti alowe m'malo mwa Mr Jerome Powell mu February wa Chaka Chatsopano. Ponena kuti awa ndi malankhulidwe ake omaliza a FOMC ndipo ngati apereka zidziwitso, zokhudzana ndi hawkish kapena mfundo zachabechabe, ndizovuta kuneneratu, popeza Akazi a Yellen angasankhe kusiya izi m'malo mwawo. Komabe, ngati kuwuka kungachitike, ndikutsatiridwa ndi mawu achi hawkish omwe akuwonetsa kuwonjezekanso kwa mfundo zachuma mu 2018, ndalama zaku US zitha kusunthika Lachitatu.
Sunday ikuyamba sabata ndi kutulutsa zingapo kuchokera ku China, zomwe zimadziwika kwambiri ndi kuchuluka kwa ngongole zatsopano zomwe zidaperekedwa mu Novembala, zomwe zikuyembekezeka kukwera, mpaka 825b kuchokera ku 663b yuan.
Lolemba ndi tsiku lopanda phokoso lalikulu pazachuma, pakati mpaka pakukhudzidwa kwakukulu, nkhani za kalendala. Zida zama makina aku Japan zitha kupereka chidziwitso pakukula kopitilira muyeso kwa dzikolo; ngati dzikoli likuyesetsabe ntchito, chiyembekezo chazopanga chimakulitsidwa. Mulingo wamsungidwe mu banking yaku Switzerland udzaululidwa. Pambuyo pake tsikulo manambala a USA JOLTS atha kupereka lingaliro lakulimba kwa ntchito zina, monga manambala aposachedwa a NFP, omwe adasindikizidwa kumapeto kwa sabata.
Lachiwiri imayamba ndi zidziwitso zaku Australia zokhudzana ndi: bizinesi yonse, kugula mitengo yamnyumba ndi kubwereketsa ma kirediti kadi. Mndandanda wapamwamba waku Japan umasindikizidwanso. Misika yaku Europe itatsegulidwa, ziwonetsero zakukula kwanyengo ku UK, chiwonetsero chiziwululidwa kuphatikiza: kukula kwa malipiro, kukwera kwamitengo ndi zina. CPI pakadali pano ili pa 3%, kuyembekezera kuti chiwerengerochi chidzasungidwa. Kukwera kwamitengo yakunyumba ku UK kukuyembekezeka kubwera pafupi ndi 5.4% yomwe idaperekedwa mu Seputembala. Kafukufuku wosiyanasiyana wa ZEW ku Germany ndi Eurozone amaperekedwa pamalonda am'mawa; zomwe zimayembekezeredwa mu Disembala ku Germany komanso momwe zinthu ziliri kwa EZ zikuwunikidwa kwambiri.
Momwe misika yaku US ikutsegulira raft ya data ya USA PPI ikuwululidwa, yotchuka kwambiri ndiye womaliza wopanga zofuna za YoY. Chiwerengero cha bajeti pamwezi ku USA chimaperekedwa, monga momwe zimakhalira ndi ma metric ofanana ndi USA omwe amakhala ndi kuchepa kwamuyaya, kuchepa kwa Okutobala kunali - $ 63.2b, kusintha pang'ono kapena kulibe kuyembekezeredwa.
Maganizo abwerera ku Australia nthawi yamadzulo; Bwanamkubwa wa RBA Lowe akukamba nkhani ku Sydney, pomwe kuwerengera kwa chidaliro kwa ogula kumafalitsidwa. Tsikuli limatseka ndi chidziwitso chaku Japan chakuwongolera makina, mwezi uliwonse komanso pachaka komanso ziwerengero zonse zikusokonekera mu Okutobala pakufunika kusintha, kuwonetsa kuti gawo lazopanga ku Japan ndilolimba komanso lokhazikika.
On Lachitatu Kuyang'ana kwambiri ndikutulutsa kwazomwe aku Europe panthawi ya Europe; CPI yaku Germany iyenera kukhalabe pafupifupi 1.8% YoY, pomwe kuchuluka kwa mafakitale ndi kuchuluka kwa ntchito ku Eurozone kumasindikizidwanso. UK ONS ipereka ziwerengero zaposachedwa pantchito komanso zambiri zokhudzana ndi kuchuluka kwa malipiro. Ulova ku UK akuyembekezeka kukhala pa 4.3%, ndikukweza malipiro ku 2.2% YoY.
Pomwe chidwi cha azimayi chikuyenda pamsika waku USA, kuwerengera mitengo yamakasitomala kumawonekera pakati pazambiri zama inflation, CPI pakadali pano ili pa 2% YoY, palibe chiyembekezo chosintha. Avereji ya ndalama (zenizeni) YoY akuyembekezeka kukhalabe pa 0.4% posonyeza kuti malipiro a antchito aku USA sanasinthe kwenikweni mchaka chonse.
FOMC ipereka chilengezo chaposachedwa cha chiwongola dzanja Lachitatu usiku, pakadali pano pa 1.25%, upangiri woperekedwa ndi Fed wanena kuti kukwera mpaka 1.5% ndikotsimikizika. Janet Yellen mwina apereka msonkhano wake womaliza wa atolankhani wa FOMC chisankho chitawululidwa, chomwe chingawonetse momwe FOMC kapena mipando yosiyanasiyana ya Fed ingakhalire koyambirira kwa 2018.
On Lachinayi Akuluakulu aku Australia amafalitsa ziwerengero zaposachedwa za ulova ndi ntchito, akuneneratu kuti ulova ukhalabe pa 5.4%. Nthawi yochepa komanso kuchuluka kwa ntchito pantchito zimasindikizidwanso. Ziwerengero zingapo zaku China zidasindikizidwa, kuphatikiza; kugulitsa malonda, omwe akuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka 10.3% YoY, ndikuwonjezeka kwakukula kwa mafakitale kuti akhalebe pa 6.2% YoY.
Ma PMI PMI angapo ku Germany ndi Eurozone adasindikizidwa Lachinayi misika yaku Europe ikatsegulidwa, kuchokera ku UK tipeze ziwerengero zaposachedwa kwambiri zakukula kwaogulitsa BoE isanalenge chigamulo chake chaposachedwa chokhudza chiwongola dzanja, ndikuyembekezera kuti agwire pano 0.5% mlingo. ECB imaperekanso chisankho chake patsikuli, ndikuwonetseratu kuti padzakhala zero zapano. Posakhalitsa chisankho chavumbulutsidwa, a Mario Draghi, Purezidenti wa ECB, azichita msonkhano ndi atolankhani ku Frankfurt.
Pomwe misika yaku US iziyambitsa madandaulo oyamba osapitilira ntchito ku USA asindikizidwa, monganso mitengo yakunja ndi yotumiza kunja ndi manambala apamwamba ogulitsa. Mndandanda wa ma Markit PMIs azachuma ku USA adzafalitsidwa, mayendedwe azinthu zamabizinesi amaliza kutulutsidwa kwa kalendala yazachuma ku USA tsikulo.
Tsikuli limathera ndikufalitsa zodutsa zaku Japan; mndandanda wa Tankan pazinthu zosiyanasiyana zopanga, kuphatikiza ndi zomwe zidafotokozedwapo sabata sabata yokhudza makina ndi zida zogwiritsira ntchito, zithandizira kuwonetsa mphamvu zamagawo opanga ku Japan.
On Friday, ziwerengero zotsalira pamalonda a mwezi wa Okutobala mu Eurozone zimamasulidwa, chidwi chisanapite ku North America. Zigulitsa zaku Canada zosindikizidwa zimasindikizidwa, monganso ziwerengero zaposachedwa kwambiri zogulitsa nyumba mdzikolo. Zambiri zopanga mafumu ku USA mu Disembala zawululidwa, monganso ziwerengero za mafakitale ndi mafakitale. Chiwerengero cha a Baker Hughes chitha kuyang'aniridwa mosamala chifukwa kuchuluka kwa mafuta kwatsika ndipo OPEC yadzipereka pakuchepetsa chitetezo.
« Sterling rebound pomwe zokambirana za Brexit zikuwonjezeredwa, ndalama zaku US zikukwera, kutsika kwa golide kumagulu omwe sanawoneke kuyambira Julayi Kodi dola idzatsata sabata yabwino kwambiri pachaka, ndikukwezanso sabata ino, pomwe chilengezo cha chiwongola dzanja cha FOMC chikuwoneka kuti chayandikira? »
