CHITSANZO CHA Sabata LAPANSI 01/02 - 05/02 | ZITSANZO ZOTSATIRA ZOFANANA ZIMAGWIRA NGAKHALE ZOKHUDZA KWAMBIRI KWA ULAYA
Unali sabata la GDP sabata ino. Kuwerenga komaliza kwa GDP ku USA kwa 2020 kudabwera pa -3.5%, ntchito yoyipitsitsa kuyambira 1946 yolembedwa pambuyo pa WW2.
Mtengo wa Q4 wakukula kwa GDP yaku US udabwera pa 4%, pomwe adaneneratu ndikubwerera kuchokera ku 33% ya liwiro la COVID-19 lojambulidwa lolembedwa mu Q3 US isanayambitse magawo ena azachuma (komanso anthu).
Lachisanu m'mawa, France ndi Germany adasindikiza ziwerengero za GDP za Q4 2020. Ofufuza ndi ochita malonda amayang'ana pazosankhazi kuti awonetse kuthamanga kwa Eurozone.
Germany idadabwitsa misika potumiza kukula kwa 0.1% mu Q4, ngakhale mu 2020 chuma chidachepa -5%. France idalemba chidule cha -1.3% mu Q4, kuposa kulosera kwa -4% ndikubwera pambuyo pa kukula kwa 18% mu Q3. GDP yaku Spain idagonjetsanso kuneneratu, ikubwera pakukula kwa 0.3% kotala lomaliza la 2020.
Komabe, zovuta zaposachedwa kwambiri ku France ndi ku Germany zidayandikira kumapeto kwa Disembala; Chifukwa chake, ziwerengero zaposachedwa za GDP sizingalozeretse kuchira kwokhazikika. Ma metro a Q1 2021 azikhala ovuta chifukwa chakutseka kwatsopano kumene kudera lonse lazamalonda ndi dera lonse la EU. Monga UK, France ndi Germany nawonso amakumana ndi mayendedwe achilendo ku Q1 2021.
Ndalama za European equity zidasokonekera pomwe misika idatsegulidwa Lachisanu koma idapezanso pang'ono pomwe chidziwitso cha Eurozone GDP chatulutsidwa. Nthawi ya 9:30 m'mawa ku UK pomwe DAX idagulitsa -0.77%, CAC pansi -0.88% ndi UK FTSE 100 pansi -0.69%. DAX ndi CAC tsopano akugulitsa madera olakwika chaka chilichonse, pomwe FTSE 100 ndi 0.50%.
Tsogolo lamisika yamsika yaku US lisonyeza kugwa kamodzi New York ikatsegulidwa masanawa, SPX 500 idagulitsa -1.04% ndi NASDAQ 100 pansi -1.53%. Ngati milingo ija ikhala pamsika ikutsegulidwa, misika yotsogola iyi yaku US izasintha nthawi zonse. Sabata iliyonse SPX imakhala pansi -2.35%, ndipo NASDAQ ili pansi -2.55%.
Kugulitsa kwapakati sabata ino m'misika yambiri yapadziko lonse lapansi kumatha kukhala chifukwa cha zinthu zinayi.
- Msonkhano wopereka chithandizo ku Biden watha. Ofufuza ndi omwe akugulitsa ndalama akuganizira ntchito zazikulu zomwe purezidenti amayenera kuchita pantchito zachuma komanso zachuma, pomwe akupereka katemera kwa mamiliyoni mazana a nzika zaku US.
- Zoyipa zingapo zapadera ku Europe ndi USA zidasokoneza kupumula kulikonse. Pakadali pano, mikangano yopanda ulemu yokhudza katemera ndi kagawidwe ikupezeka pakati pa UK ndi EU.
- Kupeza phindu kumatha kuchitika. Pambuyo pakukula kwakukulu mu 2020, sizingadabwe ngati ambiri omwe amagulitsa ndalama (makamaka ogulitsa malonda) amatenga tchipisi tawo ndikuyenda patebulo.
- Kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa malonda ogulitsa masana kumatha kukhala kovuta. Amalonda ambiri ochokera ku US afika pamsika wosankha kudzera m'mapulatifomu monga a Robin Hood kuti athandizire kukankhira masheya (makamaka zida zamagetsi) kupita kumtunda wapamwamba. Tsopano popeza kuti zomwe zasungidwa zikufalitsidwa tsopano zikukhala zovuta kwambiri kutsimikizira kuwerengera kutengera momwe mtengo uliri v.
USD imatuluka mkati mwa sabata pomwe mafuta osakometsa amasunga zomwe apeza posachedwa
Dola yaku US idalemba zopindulitsa zazikulu motsutsana ndi anzawo mkati mwa sabata. Otsatsa ndi amalonda ku USD adalimbikitsidwa ndi zomwe wapampando wa Federal Reserve a Jerome Powell anena posachedwa pankhani yokhudza ndalama zomwe akufuna kusunga. Ndalama sizikuwonjezera pulogalamu yogula ma bond / QE ndipo a Powell nawonso akuwonetsa kuti palibe chosintha ku chiwongola dzanja cha 0.25% pakadali pano.
Dola la DXY lidakwera ndi 0.27% mkati mwa Lachisanu koyambirira ndikukwera 0.57% sabata iliyonse, kukhalabe pamwamba pa chogwirizira chofunikira cha 90.00 pa 90.70. EUR / USD yatsika -0.54% sabata iliyonse ikamayandikira pafupi ndi malo okhala pafupi ndi pivot pint patsiku Lachisanu ku London-European.
GBP / USD yapereka zopindulitsa zomwe zalembedwa mkati mwa sabata -0.11%. M'chigawo choyambirira cha Lachisanu awiriwa adagulitsa -0.38% kwinaku akuwopseza kuphwanya S1.
Pempho lotetezeka la JPY ndi CHF lazimiririka sabata ino. USD / JPY idakwera 1.09% sabata iliyonse mpaka 0.51% patsikuli. USD / CHF imakwera 0.53% sabata iliyonse ndikukwera 0.10% patsikulo. USD yalembetsanso zotayika zaposachedwa motsutsana ndi ndalama zonse zotsutsana sabata ino; AUD / USD yatsika -0.90%, ndipo NZD / USD yatsika -0.22% sabata iliyonse.
Mafuta osakongola awuka kwambiri mu 2021. Mafuta okula padziko lonse lapansi akwera ndi 8.25% YTD ndipo 8.54% pamwezi. Kukula kumeneku kwachepa sabata ino, kuchepa mpaka 0.48%. Misika idakhazikika m'miyezi yachisanu ndikusungitsa ku Europe ndi America, ndipo malinga ndi lingaliro la IMF sabata ino kukula kwapadziko lonse sikudzabwerera mpaka katemera atatulutsidwa ndikuwonetsedwa kuti akugwira ntchito.
Zitsulo zamtengo wapatali zakhala ndi mwayi wosakanikirana sabata ino. Golide ikugulitsa pafupi ndi sabata, sabata -0.06% koma 0.76% Lachisanu pa $ 1,853 paunzi. Silver yakula kwambiri sabata ino, ikukwera 6.18% sabata iliyonse ndikukwera 2.31% Lachisanu kuti igulitse $ 26.95 paunzi.
Zochitika pa kalendala zoyang'anira sabata yoyambira Lamlungu, Januware 31
On Lolemba, February 1, Ma IHS Markit opanga ma PMI angapo ku Europe amafalitsidwa. Italy, France, Germany komanso dera lonse la Eurozone zikuyenera kuwonetsedwa mu Januware.
A Markit amaneneranso kuti UK iwulula zakugwa. Komabe, kuwerengera kwamayiko onse kuyenera kukhalabe pamwamba pamasamba 50 olekanitsa kupindika ndi kukula. Kuvomerezeka kwa ngongole zanyumba, ngongole za ogula ndi mtengo wanyumba zimasindikizidwa ku UK nthawi yam'mawa, ndipo kuwerengera konseku kuyenera kukhala pafupi ndi ziwerengero zam'mbuyomu.
Ma ISM opanga ma PMI aku Canada ndi USA adzafalitsidwa masana. Ndalama zomanga ku USA zitha kutsika mpaka 0.5% ziwerengero za Disembala zikafalitsidwa.
Dola la Aussie lidzawunikiridwa nthawi Lachiwiri Gawo la Sydney pomwe RBA ikuwulula chiwongola dzanja chake. Mtengo uyenera kusasinthika pa 0.1%.
Msonkhano waku London ndi Europe utatsegulidwa, ziwerengero zaposachedwa kwambiri ku GDP zaku Italy zizisindikizidwa. Ofufuza akuneneratu kugwa kwa chaka ndi chaka -5.8% ndi Q2 2020 ya -2.3%. Reuters akulosera kutsika kwa GDP ya EA kufika -6.0% mu 2020 ndi -2.2% ya Q4.
Maofesi a IHS Markit a ku Europe adzagawana nawo nthawi imeneyi Lachitatu Gawo la London-European. France, Spain, Italy ndi EA ziwonetsa kugwa malinga ndi akatswiri ku Reuters ndi Bloomberg.
Ntchito zaku UK PMI ziziwonongeka kwambiri, zikuyembekezeka kubwera ku 38.8 mu Januware, kutsika kuchokera ku 49.4 mu Disembala. Kugwa koteroko kungakhudze phindu la GBP motsutsana ndi anzawo nthawi ikasindikizidwa. Malinga ndi akatswiri, kutsika kwachuma ku Europe kukadatha kukwera mpaka 0.1% pachaka ndikukwera 0.5% mu Januware.
Kuwerengetsa kwa ma Markit ku USA kuyenera kuwonetsa kusintha mu Januware, ndipo gulu likhoza kubwera pa 58, pamwamba pamiyeso 50 yowonjezerera. Nambala yantchito ya ADP ikuyembekezeredwa pa 50K, kusintha kwakukulu motsutsana ndi -123K yowerengera kale. Gulu labwino la Markit lowonjezeredwa pakulimbikitsa manambala antchito zitha kusokoneza mtengo wa USD poyerekeza ndi anzawo.
Ma PMI omanga amaperekedwa Lachinayi ku Germany ndi UK, zomangamanga sizinayime nthawi yomwe UK idatseka; chifukwa chake, kuwerengera kudzakhalabe pamwamba pa 50 pa 54.6 malinga ndi akatswiri. Banki yaku UK yaku England iwulula za chiwongola dzanja chaposachedwa ndikulangiza ngati pangakhale kusintha kulikonse pa pulogalamu ya QE. Zonse ziwiri za mfundo zandalama ziyenera kukhalabe zosasinthika.
Chiwerengero cha anthu opanda ntchito sabata iliyonse ku US chimaperekedwa ndi BLS Lachinayi masana, kuwerengetsa kwaposachedwa kwatsika pansi pa 900K sabata, ndipo chiyembekezo ndichakuti izi zipitilizabe kuwonetsa kuchepa. Malinga ndi akatswiri, madongosolo amafakitole akuyenera kuwonetsa zisonyezo zakusintha; muyesowo udzakwera kuchokera ku 1% mpaka 1.7% mu Januware. Chidaliro chopangidwa ndi ziwerengero ziwirizi chingakhudze mtengo wa USD.
On Friday tidzalandira data yachiwiri ya NFP ya 2021. Chiwerengero cha Januware chitakhala ndi ntchito za Disembala, za February zikhala zenizeni pokhudzana ndi ntchito zomwe zachitika pachuma chachikulu kwambiri padziko lapansi. Ofufuza ananeneratu kuti ntchito 80K zokhazokha zidapangidwa, zikuyenda bwino kuchokera kuntchito -140K kutayika kwa ntchito komwe kudalembedwa kale. Kusowa kwa ntchito ku US kuyenera kukhalabe pa 6.7%, pomwe aku Canada akuyenera kutsika kuchokera ku 8.8% mpaka 8.7%. Fakitole yaposachedwa ikulamula za Germany, malonda aku France, kugulitsa kwa ku Italy, ndi mitengo yakunyumba yaku UK (malinga ndi National Bank) ndizowerengera zomwe zingakhudze mtengo wa EUR ndi GBP ngati zotsatira zikuphonya kapena kumenya zonenedweratu za akatswiri.
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