Kumvetsetsa Kuyembekeza Kwakabwino mu Kugulitsa Kwadongosolo
Mwa mazana amabukhu amalonda omwe amapezeka pankhani yosamalira ndalama sichinafotokozeredwepo, zomwe zimapezeka m'mabuku ogulitsa nthawi zambiri zimakhala ndi njira, kapangidwe kake, njira zawo..Mtundu uwu wazomwe umabwerezedwa pama forum aku forex. Yang'anani mwatsatanetsatane manambala a alendo omwe ali mgululi ndipo mupeza msanga kuti cholinga chawo chachikulu ndi njira ndi maluso, mabwalo oyang'anira ndalama ali ndi udzu womwe ungadutse. Komabe, monga gawo la kasamalidwe koyenera ka wogulitsa ndikuwongolera kumvetsetsa kwakanthawi ndikofunikira.
Chiyembekezo ndi chiani?
Chiyembekezo ndi ndalama zomwe mungayembekezere kupambana (kapena kutaya) pa gawo limodzi la ndalama zomwe zili pachiwopsezo. Nayi njira ya chiyembekezo:
Chiyembekezo = (Kuthekera kwa Win * Average Win) - (Mwayi Wotayika * Avereji Ya Kutaya)
Tidzagwiritsa ntchito ma Yuro muzitsanzo zomwe timasankha kuwonetsa kuti chiyembekezo ndi chiyani komanso momwe kuchipindulira kungakuthandizireni kupeza phindu. Koma poyamba pali olemba awiri olemekezeka komanso azachuma pamaganizidwe;
Dr. Van K. Tharp:
Makina anu ogulitsa ayenera kukhala ndi chiyembekezo chabwino ndipo muyenera kumvetsetsa tanthauzo la izi. Kukonda kwachilengedwe komwe anthu ambiri ali nako ndikupita kukapangidwe kazotheka kotsimikizika. Tonse tapatsidwa kukondera komwe muyenera kunena zowona. Timaphunzitsidwa kusukulu kuti 94 peresenti kapena kupitilira apo ndi A ndipo 70 kapena pansipa ndikulephera. Palibe pansi pa 70 zovomerezeka. Aliyense akuyang'ana njira zolowera zodalirika, koma chiyembekezo chake ndiye fungulo. Ndipo chinsinsi chenicheni chakuyembekezera ndi momwe mumatulukira mumisika osati momwe mumalowerera. Momwe mumapezera phindu komanso momwe mumachokera pamalo oyipa kuteteza katundu wanu. Chiyembekezo ndiye kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe mupange pa avareji pa dola yomwe mwayikiridwa. Ngati muli ndi njira yomwe imakupangitsani masenti 50 kapena kupitilira dola kukhala pachiwopsezo, ndizabwino kwambiri. Anthu ambiri satero. Izi zikutanthauza kuti mukayika pachiwopsezo cha $ 1,000 yomwe mungapangire pafupifupi $ 500 pamalonda onse - omwe ndi opambana komanso otayika limodzi.
Nassim Taleb:
M'malingaliro ena ndi mikhalidwe yamoyo, akuti, wina amatchova juga madola kuti apeze ndalama zochepa. M'malo ena pamakhala chiopsezo chotsata ma peni kuti apambane madola. Pomwe wina angaganize kuti gulu lachiwirili lingakhale losangalatsa kwa osunga ndalama ndi othandizira zachuma, tili ndi umboni wokwanira wodziwika woyamba.
Kuwerengera kuyembekezera:
- Pindani peresenti 6%
- Mtengo wopambana 60%
- Kutayika peresenti 4%
- Kutayika kwa 40%
Chiyembekezo ndiye 2.0% pamalonda onse, kapena (6% x 60%) - (4% x 40%).
Chifukwa chake, pamalonda wamba, 2% ya ndalama zomwe zimagulitsidwa ndi phindu. Tsopano, pakuwunika koyamba komwe sikungawerenge ngati kubwerera kwabwino. Ngati malonda anu ndi € 10,000 ndiye 2% ndi € 200 phindu pa malonda. Komabe, ngati muli ndi malonda 300 pachaka, ndiye kuti muli ndi phindu la € 60,000 pachaka ndi malonda wamba a € 10,000 okha. Izi siziphatikizapo phindu lililonse mukasankha kuphatikiza malonda aliwonse.
Mukamayesa 'chiyembekezo cha chiyembekezo', amalonda amazindikira kuti palibe 'manambala' amodzi omwe amapereka chiyembekezo chokwanira, koma pali mitundu yopanda malire chifukwa chake (poganiza) pali njira zopanda malire zamalonda zomwe zingathe khalani opindulitsa. Chiganizo chomalizirachi ndi chovuta kwa amalonda ambiri (oyamba kumene komanso odziwa zambiri) kuti amvetse chifukwa chimang'amba nsalu za malonda - zamalonda / zamakina. Mtundu woyembekezera ukuwonetsa kuti ngakhale machitidwe osasintha akhoza kukhala opindulitsa ngati kasamalidwe ka ndalama ndi koyenera. Mtundu woyembekezera ungathandizenso kukhulupirira malonda ena; ndizotheka kukhazikitsa makina pogwiritsa ntchito chiyembekezo ndi kukula kwa malo (chiwopsezo chonse) monga maziko omwe kuyimitsidwa kwakanthawi kuli kwakukulu kuposa phindu lomwe limaperekedwa. Kulephera kwakanthawi kumatha kuwonedwa kukhala kochulukirachulukira, ngati chiyembekezo chanu ndichabwino.
Titha kugwiritsira ntchito mopambanitsa, kuyika kuwonongeka kwa 20% ndi phindu la 5% ndikutuluka ndi chiyembekezo cha 2% ngati chiwongola dzanja chikukwanira. Kupambana kwa 88% mchitsanzo ichi kungabweretse 2.0%, zotsatira za (5% x 88%) - (20% x 12%). Mutha kukhala ndi chiyembekezo chambiri ndi mitengo yotsika kwambiri.
Chimodzi mwazidziwitso zotchuka kwambiri chimachokera ku dongosolo la CAN SLIM. CAN SLIM imanena za mawu asanu ndi awiri ofotokozedwa ndi nyuzipepala yaku America ya Investor's Business Daily, yomwe imati ndi mndandanda wazikhalidwe zomwe masheya amakhala nazo asanapindule kwambiri. Idapangidwa ndi mkonzi wa Investor's Business Daily a William O'Neil omwe akuti adapanga madola mazana angapo mamiliyoni pogwiritsa ntchito njirayi.
Mnemonic:
Magawo asanu ndi awiri a mnemonic ndi awa:
C imayimira mapindu apano. Gawo lililonse, zomwe apeza pano ziyenera kukhala mpaka 25%. Kuphatikiza apo, ngati ndalama zikukula mofulumira, ichi ndi chizindikiro chodziwikiratu.
A imayimira mapindu apachaka, omwe akuyenera kukhala okwera 25% kapena kupitilira zaka zitatu zapitazi. Zobweza pachaka pachilichonse ziyenera kukhala 17% kapena kupitilira apo
N limaimira Chatsopano kapena ntchito, zomwe zikutanthauza lingaliro loti kampani iyenera kukhala ndi lingaliro latsopano lomwe limalimbikitsa kukula kwakulandila komwe kukuwonetsedwa m'magawo awiri oyamba a mnemonic. Izi ndizomwe zimalola kuti masheya achoke pamtundu woyenera wa tchati pazomwe adapeza kale kuti athe kupitiliza kukula ndikukwaniritsa chatsopano pamtengo. Chitsanzo chodziwikiratu cha izi ndi iPod Computer ya Apple.
S imayimira Kupereka ndi kufunika. Mndandanda wamagulu azachuma ungathe kuwonedwa ndi kuchuluka kwa masheya, makamaka pakukula kwamitengo.
L imayimira Mtsogoleri kapena wotsalira? O'Neil akuwonetsa kugula "malo omwe akutsogola m'makampani omwe akutsogolera". Kuyeza kwamtengo woyeserera kumeneku kumatha kuyezedwa moyenera ndi Relative Price Strength Rating (RPSR) ya masheya, cholozera chopangira kuyeza mtengo wamasheya m'miyezi 12 yapitayi poyerekeza ndi msika wonse kutengera S & P 500 kapena TSE 300 kwakanthawi kanthawi.
I imayimira kuthandizidwa ndi Institutional, komwe kumatanthauza umwini wa masheya ndi zothandizana, makamaka m'malo aposachedwa. Muyeso apa ndikuti Kuwonjezeka / Kufalitsa Magawo, komwe ndi gawo lazogwirira ntchito zothandizirana m'thumba linalake.
M imayimira magawo a Msika, makamaka Dow Jones, S&P 500, ndi NASDAQ. Munthawi yazogulitsa, O'Neil amasankha kubzala ndalama panthawi yazovuta zina zitatuzi, popeza atatu mwa masheya anayi amakonda kutsatira msika wonse.
Ngati tigwiritsa ntchito kuyimitsa kwa O'Neil ndi ziwerengero za 8% ndi 20% ndi mphotho yake yopambana ya 30%, chiyembekezo chitha kuwerengedwa kuti: (20% x 30%) - (8% x 70%) kapena + 0.4%. Kwa nthawi yayitali malonda ake ali ndi chiyembekezo cha 0.4%. Pomwe pamaso pake pali 0.4% ROI ikuwoneka ngati yobweza pang'ono pamalonda ngati chidaliro cha 100% chilipo m'njira imeneyi ndiye kuti phindu limakhala lalikulu.
Chiyembekezo chiyenera kukhala chabwino ngati mukufuna kupeza phindu pakapita nthawi. Musagwiritse ntchito makina opanda zero kapena chiyembekezo, simungapambane. Simungapange ndalama zambiri pokhapokha mutakhala ndi mwayi wambiri wogulitsa, pomwe O'Neil's CAN SLIM ikhoza kukhala yocheperako, chifukwa ndizogwirizana kwambiri ndi masheya kuposa forex, palibe malire pazowerengera zapawiri. Kudziwa momwe tingapangire njira, (papepala), ndikuyembekeza zabwino ndi nkhani imodzi, koma ngati titapanga dongosolo lokhala ndi chiyembekezo cha 8% ndipo dongosololi limangopanga malonda amodzi pachaka, sizingagulitsidwe. Tikadakhala ndi njira yomwe idapereka 0.2% pamalonda ndipo makinawo amapanga malonda 1,000 pachaka 1,000 nthawi 0.2% ikadakhala ndalama zowopsa munthawi yochepa kwambiri.
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