Msika wamalonda aku US wavutika mwezi wawo woyipitsitsa kuyambira 2016, kuchepa kwamphamvu, pomwe olankhula ku European Union atulutsa moto pa dongosolo la boma la UK ku Brexit
February 2018 yatsimikizika kuti ndi umodzi mwamwezi yovuta kwambiri komanso yovuta pamisika yachuma, yochitiridwa umboni zaka zambiri. Mwezi watha ndikugwa kwakukulu pamisika yayikulu (DJIA ndi SPX), yomwe yawoneka zaka ziwiri. Kugwa kwa February kwa DJIA ndi -4.28%, SPX yalembetsa -3.89% kugwa. Ngakhale index ya NASDAQ, yomwe idapulumuka kukula kwakukonzekera kwamisika komwe idakumana ndi koyambirira kwa Okutobala, idatseka mweziwo ndi -1.86% yagwa. Misika yonse itatu ikulembetsabe kukwera kwa 2018, ndikusindikiza kwa NASDAQ chaka mpaka pano kukwera kupitirira 5.3%, koma mosakayikira, omwe amagulitsa misika yamalonda (mwina padziko lonse lapansi), alephera kupezanso chiyembekezo chawo cha 2017, pambuyo pa kugulitsa adakumana kale koyambirira kwa mwezi.
Ngati amalonda akufuna mpando watsopano wa Fed a Jerome Powell kuti awapatse chifukwa chodzipangira mitengo kapena kuti akhale ndi ndalama, ndiye kuti atsala atasiyidwa dzulo ndi umboni wake wachinyengo ku gulu la Nyumba, pomwe adati a Fed / FOMC idzagwiritsabe ntchito pulani yake yokweza chiwongola dzanja katatu mu 2018. Komabe, izi zitha kupitilizidwa mpaka zinayi, ngati iye ndi komiti yake akukhulupirira kuti chuma cha USA chilimba mokwanira kupirira kukwera kumeneku. Opanga misika ndi ogula akuluakulu m'masheya, tsopano ajambulidwa pakona; Mabungwe sangagwiritse ntchito ndalama zotsika mtengo kuti agwire nawo masheya ogula masheya kuti atumize mitengo yokwera kutengera kusowa, sangaperekenso ndalama zomwe ali nazo kale, sangabwereke mopepuka kulingalira, mabizinesi sangathenso kupeza mbiriyakale ndalama zotsika mtengo chifukwa chake phindu lawo lidzagwa.
Nkhani yoti USA GDP idasowa momwe idanenedweratu, ikubwera ku 2.3% ya Q4, sizingakhale zotonthoza, popeza YoY yapachaka, chiwonetsero cha GDP chidabwera molosera pa 2.5%. Zakudya zaumwini zidagwera mu Q4, ndipo zopangira zopanda mafuta ndi mafuta zidakwera, ndikupangitsa mitengo kugwera pamisika yamagetsi. Ma data aposachedwa aku USA omwe akuyembekezeredwa kugulitsa nyumba adapereka mantha kuyembekezera kunali kukwera kwa 0.5% pambuyo pochepetsa nyengo mu Disembala, Januware adalembetsa kugwa kwa -4.7%, ndikupangitsa kugwa kwa YoY kukhala -1.7%. Apanso, ma metric otere atha kukhala chisonyezo kuti ngati owunikira ndi owunikira pamisika angayang'ane pansi pa bonnet yamagalimoto azachuma ku USA, apeza kuti injiniyo ikuwonongeka.
Owerenga pafupipafupi mabulogu ndi zipilala azindikira kuti takhala tikuchenjeza makasitomala nthawi zonse za zomwe zikuchitika ku Brexit, ndi momwe ziyambira kuyambitsa phindu la sterling (yomwe idakulira mu 2017) nthawi ikamatha March 2018 kutuluka. Boma la UK tsopano sikuti likudzitsutsa lokha, koma likuyamba kuchita nawo nkhondo zamkati, zamkati. Lingaliro la malire pafupifupi amalonda ku Ireland, ndi njovu m'chipindacho, zomwe zimakhala zovuta kuzinyalanyaza ndikupewa.
Michel Barnier, wokambirana wamkulu malinga ndi malingaliro a EU, adapereka chikalata chalamulo ku EU Lachitatu, chokhala ndi malamulo a Brexit, omwe Prime Minister waku UK adakana nthawi yomweyo. A Barnier adakumbukiranso oyang'anira aku UK kuti ali ndi miyezi khumi ndi itatu yokha kuti akonzekere kuchoka. Nthumwi zonse, malingaliro ake amapewa mkwiyo ndi kukhumudwitsidwa, malongosoledwe omwe sangathe kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa wakale wa UKPM a John Major, yemwe adasokoneza chipani chake cha Tory polephera kukhazikitsa njira yolumikizirana mpaka pano. GBP / USD idagwa pafupi 1%, pomwe sterling idagwera motsutsana ndi anzawo.
KUCHITA
GBP / USD imagulitsidwa masiku onse, kusindikiza masabata asanu a 1.375, kutseka tsikulo pafupifupi 0.8%, ndikuphwanya S2, ku 1.375. Awiri omwe ali ndi ndalama tsopano ataya ma pips a 450, kuyambira pomwe adalemba chaka chawo kuti chikhale chapamwamba sabata yachitatu ya Januware. DMA 100 ikuwonetsedwa ku 1.354, ndipo itha kuwongoleredwa, ngati mkhalidwe wa bearish ukupitilira. UK mapaundi adagwa kupitirira 1% poyerekeza ndi yen, GBP / JPY kugwa kudzera gawo lachitatu la thandizo ndi 200 DMA, kutsekedwa ndi circa 1.3% pa 146.8. Yen adawoneka ngati malo otetezeka motsutsana ndi anzawo ambiri, panthawi yamalonda masana.
US DOLLAR
USD / JPY inagulitsa masiku ochepa, kuwopseza kugwa gawo lachiwiri lothandizira ku New York, kutseka tsikulo pafupifupi 0.5% patsiku la 106.6. USD / CHF imagulitsidwa masiku onse, ikuphwanya R2, kutseka pafupifupi 0.7%, pamwamba pa mzere wachiwiri wotsutsa R2, pa 0.944. Swiss franc idagwa motsutsana ndi anzawo ambiri pamisonkhano yachitatu. USD / CAD imagulitsanso zochitika za tsiku ndi tsiku, kukwera kudzera pa R1, ndikuwopseza kuphwanya R2, kutseka pafupifupi 0.5% pa 1.283.
EURO
EUR / GBP imagulitsidwa pamitundu yayikulu, yozungulira tsiku lililonse, yomwe imakwera mpaka R2, kutseka tsiku mpaka 0.7% mpaka 0.886, kufika pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri womwe udawonedwa sabata limodzi ndikumaliza 100 DMA. EUR / USD yagwa kwambiri kuyambira pomwe adasindikiza chaka mpaka pano pa February 16, mtengo watsika kuchokera ku circa 1.25 mpaka 1.219. EUR / JPY imagulitsidwa tsiku lililonse, kugwera gawo lachitatu la S3, kutseka pafupifupi 1.1% pa 130.05, pafupi ndi kuphwanya kovuta kwa 130.00.
Golide
XAU / USD inagulitsidwa panjira yopapatiza kwambiri, yammbali nthawi yamalonda yamasana, ikuyenda mozungulira malo oyendetsera tsiku ndi tsiku, kulembetsa pafupifupi 1,318 patsiku logulitsa masana ndi 1,317, mtengo womwe chitsulo chamtengo wapatali chimatsekedwa malonda a tsikulo ku. Mtengo udakalipo pamwamba pa 100 DMA yowonedwa ku 1,300, chandamale chomwe sichinganyalanyazidwe, chifukwa cha malingaliro ndi mawonekedwe, omwe awonedwa pa tchati cha tsiku ndi tsiku kuyambira pakati pa February.
ZOKHUDZA ZOKHUDZA ZOKHUDZA KWA FEBRUARY 28.
• DJIA yatseka 1.50%.
• SPX inatseka 1.11%.
• FTSE 100 inatseka 0.69%.
• DAX inatseka 0.44%.
• CAC inatseka 0.44%.
ZOFUNIKA KWAMBIRI ZA CALENDAR ZOCHITIKA KWA MARCH 1.
• CHF. Zowonjezera Pakhomo (YoY) (4Q).
• GBP. Net Consumer Credit (JAN).
• EUR. Katundu Wonse Wapadziko Lonse Waku Italy (YoY) (2017).
• USD. PCE Kore (YoY) (JAN).
• USD. Kupanga kwa ISM (FEB).
• USD. Ntchito ya ISM (FEB).
• JPY. Dongosolo la Mtengo Wogula ku Tokyo (YoY) (FEB).
CALENDAR YATULUKITSIDWA KUYANG'ANIRA PATSOGOLO MU LABWINO MARCH 1.
Swiss franc idagulitsidwa panthawi yamalonda Lachitatu, ziwerengero zaposachedwa za GDP zikuyenera kutulutsidwa Lachinayi, ndipo kunenedweratu kukukwera ku 1.7% YoY mpaka Q4. Ponena kuti chiyembekezochi chikukhudza kapena ayi CHF sichikudziwika, komabe, zotsatira zake zikatulutsidwa, mtengo wa Swiss franc ungayang'anitsidwe. Ma PMI angapo opanga ma Eurozone amatulutsidwa okhudzana ndi: Italy, france, Germany komanso gulu lonse lazamalonda la Eurozone, PMI yopanga PMI imatulutsidwa. Ma data ena aku Europe omwe akukhudzidwa amakhudza omwe akubwereketsa makasitomala aku UK aposachedwa komanso kuvomereza kwawo kubweza ngongole.
Tikangotsegula misika ku USA tidzalandira ndalama zaposachedwa kwambiri komanso zomwe timagwiritsa ntchito. Popeza mantha azachuma omwe adawonetsedwa koyambirira kwa mwezi, omwe amayang'ana kwambiri kukwera kwamitengo makamaka kwa kukwera kwamalipiro, mayendedwewa amatha kuyang'aniridwa kwambiri ngati pali zofooka zilizonse pakutha kwa ogula, kapena kufunitsitsa kwawo kuwononga ndalama. Kuwerengedwa kwaposachedwa kwa ISM pakupanga ndi ntchito ku USA kudzafalitsidwanso, mamayikiro ofunikira omwe amakhala okwera kwambiri (potengera momwe angakhudzire) azachuma aku America kuposa, monga kuwerenga kwa PMI.
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