EUR / GBP ndi BOE ndi The Greeks and the Spanish
Pambuyo pakusintha kwakukulu Lachiwiri ndi Lachitatu, awiri a EUR/GBP adapezanso mtundu wina wofanana. Awiriwo adakhazikika dzulo munjira yamalonda yam'mbali pafupi ndi chiwerengero chachikulu cha 0.8100. Panali zochepa kwambiri panjira ya nkhani zolimba kuti zikankhire mlingo wa mtanda kuchoka pa pivot iyi. Pambuyo pa kutha kwa misika yaku Europe, Nduna ya Zachuma ku UK Osborne adalengeza za chiwembu chatsopano chothandizira kupezeka kwa ngongole pachuma cha UK. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, BoE idzayambitsanso malo ake Owonjezera a Chikole cha Term Repo.
Bwanamkubwa wa BoE adanenanso kuti nkhani yowonjezereka ikukula. Sterling anataya nkhupakupa zochepa pa chilengezocho, koma zotsatira zake zinali zochepa kwambiri. EUR/GBP inatseka gawoli pa 0.8118, poyerekeza ndi 0.8098 Lachitatu madzulo.
Kutsitsidwa kwa Moody's waku Spain usiku wonse sikunakhudze zambiri pa Bund (onani m'munsimu kuti mumve zambiri ku Spain/Italy) komanso ngakhale kugulitsa kopambana ku Italy. Kuyesa koyambirira kudachitika mwachangu pambuyo pake malonda am'mbali mwam'mbali adachulukira. Sentiment idakhala yabwino kwambiri pagawo lamadzulo ndipo adalandira chithandizo chambiri kuposa zomwe timayembekezera.
Chiwonetsero cha nkhani zoyipa chidayamba usiku umodzi pomwe Moody's adatsitsa dzikolo ndi ma notche atatu mpaka ku Baa3, pafupi kugwera m'gawo lazakudya. Kumayambiriro kwa gawo la ku Ulaya, deta inasonyeza kuti kuchepa kwa mitengo ya nyumba za ku Spain kunafulumira. Posakhalitsa, deta ya Bank of Spain idawulula kuti kubwereka kwa mabanki aku Spain kuchokera ku ECB kunakulanso (mbiri yatsopano ya mbiri) ndipo kuyambira pamenepo, anali munthu aliyense payekha. Zokolola za ku Spain zaka 10 zinakhazikitsa moyo watsopano wa euro ndipo zinachita manyazi kuswa chizindikiro cha 7% (6.998% malinga ndi deta ya BB). Ma bond aku Italiya nawonso adavutika koma kuwonongeka kwake kudathetsedwa Italy itakwanitsa kugulitsa BTP's € 4.25B (kuchuluka kwa zomwe chandamale; onani pansipa). Pamapeto pake, kufalikira kwa ku Italy kwa zaka 10 kunatsika ndi 8 bps mpaka 464 bps.
Lero, titha kupeza gawo lazamalonda labata zisankho zaku Greece za sabata ino. Zotsatira zachisankho sizikudziwika. Zovota zaposachedwa ndi za masabata awiri apitawa ndipo zidawonetsa kuti chipani chokhazikika cha New Democracy (opambana zisankho za Meyi 6) ndi chipani chamanzere cha SYRIZA adakumana. Kaya zotsatira zake zingakhale zotani, tikuganiza kuti zidzakhala zovuta kupanga boma. Ngati boma lipangidwa, kaya likutsogoleredwa ndi ND wa SYRIZA, chimodzi mwa zinthu zoyamba zomwe lidzachita, ndikukambirananso mgwirizano wa EU / IMF Memorandum. Njira ya SYRIZA idzakhala yokulirapo (kubweza zisankho zam'mbuyomu ndi zina zotero) kenako ND (mwachitsanzo kuchedwetsa zolinga). Kuyambira pamenepo mpaka ku Europe. Atumiki a Eurozone adzakhala ndi msonkhano Lamlungu kuti akambirane zotsatira za zisankho ndikuwunika zomwe angasankhe.
Dzulo, magwero a G20 adanenanso kuti mabanki apakati akukonzekera kuchitapo kanthu pambuyo pa zisankho zachi Greek ngati pakufunika. Kalendala yaku UK ili ndi ziwerengero zamalonda. M'malo omwe alipo, tikuyembekeza kuti zomwe msika ungachite pa lipotili zikhale zofunikira kwambiri tsiku lililonse. Zonse zikhala zokhudza kutsogola zisankho zaku Greece. Mwachidziwitso, chiyembekezo cha kukondoweza kwa mfundo zosavomerezeka kuyenera kukhala koyipa kwa sterling. Komabe, m'malo apano, izi sizili choncho. UK ikadali ndi mwayi wokhala ndi banki yayikulu yomwe imatha kuchita zinthu mosinthika. Sizikudziwikabe kuti ndondomeko zolemekeza BoE zidzagwira ntchito pakapita nthawi. Komabe, msika ukakhala madzulo a mphepo yamkuntho, kusinthasintha kwa ndondomekoyi kungawoneke ngati chuma. Chifukwa chake, kwakanthawi kochepa timaganiza kuti sterling ikhoza kukhalabe yabwino, makamaka motsutsana ndi ndalama imodzi.
Kuchokera pamalingaliro aukadaulo, kuchuluka kwa EUR/GBP kukuwonetsa kuphatikizika kwakanthawi pambuyo pogulitsa kuyambira February. Kumayambiriro kwa Meyi, chithandizo chachikulu cha 0.8068 chinachotsedwa. Kupuma kumeneku kunatsegula njira yobwereranso kudera la 0.77 (October 2008 lows). Pakati pa Meyi, awiriwa adawongolera kutsika kwa 0.7950. Kuchokera pamenepo, kubwezera / kufinyidwa kwakufupi kunayambika. Kupitiliza malonda pamwamba pa malo a 0.8095 (gap) kungathetse chenjezo. Kuyesera koyamba kutero kunakanidwa sabata yatha. Awiriwo anayesa kangapo kuti apezenso dera la 0.8100 kumayambiriro kwa sabata ino, koma panalibe zotsatira zotsatila. Timakondabe kugulitsa kukhala mphamvu kuti tibwererenso mocheperako.
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