Sterling akugulitsa mosasamala kanthu za boma la UK laposachedwa. Minister akuchotsa, dollar yaku US ikukwera chifukwa nkhani zabwino zachuma zimabweretsa zikhulupiriro kuti chiwongola dzanja chidzawuka kwambiri mu 2018
Pomwe ogulitsa achidule aku USA akupita kukagwira ntchito zawo zapachaka kuyambira 2013, osunga ndalama ambiri komanso akatswiri amafunsa funso; kuchuluka kwakukulu kungakwere bwanji mu 2018, tsopano chifukwa chachikulu chobwerera kwawo kodabwitsa kwa 2017 sichingakhale chothandizira? Msika wamsika wa DJIA ku USA wakwera ndi circa 27% pakadali pano mu 2017, chifukwa cha lonjezo lakuchepetsa misonkho kwa a Republican komanso njira yayikulu yogwiritsira ntchito zomangamanga. Njira zonse ziwiri zolimbikitsira ndalama zimawonedwa bwino ndi osunga ndalama ndipo zimawoneka ngati zolimbikitsira madera aku America omwe agwera kumbuyo kwachuma, kapena asokonekera pazaka zaposachedwa.
Tikudziwa tsopano kuti njira yochepetsera misonkho ikuchitika, ndalama zomwe zimawonongedwa (pafupifupi madola trilioni imodzi zomwe zidalonjezedwa kuti zidzamanganso zomangamanga), zatha mwadzidzidzi munkhani ya a Republican ndi a Trump m'miyezi yaposachedwa.
Ndondomeko yogwiritsira ntchito zomangamanga yasokoneza dollar yaku US mchaka chonse cha 2017, ndipo ngakhale Fed idasunga lonjezo lake lokweza mitengo katatu mu 2017 omwe adasungitsa ndalama adalephera kupereka dola, yomwe yagwa motsutsana ndi ziwiri zazikulu anzawo; yuro komanso chabwino chaka chonse. UK BoE ndi Eurozone ECB apereka ziganizo zachabechabe mchaka chokhudzana ndi chiwongola dzanja. Potengera momwe mfundo zandalama zikuyendera; a BoE adakakamizidwa kukweza mitengo ndi 0.25% mpaka 0.5% mu Novembala, kuti athane ndi kukakamizidwa kwa inflation, pomwe kusuntha kokhako komwe ECB idachita ndikutumiza pulogalamu yake ya APP (kugula zinthu) ndi € 20b pamwezi. Ngakhale izi sizinachitike, ndalama za mabanki apakati zidakwera poyerekeza ndi dola yaku US mu 2017.
Ndalama (posachedwapa) yadzipereka pulogalamu yachiwongola dzanja mu 2018, ndikuwonjeza kuwuka kwina katatu kwa pafupifupi 0.25% chaka chonse ndikuti idakonzekeranso kufunafuna njira zochotsera pa $ 4.5 trilioni. Ndipo ngakhale panali pempholi lachinyengo, dola yaku US yalephera kupindulira kwambiri poyerekeza ndi anzawo onse. Munthawi ya 2018 zidzakhala zosangalatsa kuwona ngati dola ikukweradi, ngati mitengo itatuyo ichitike. Ngati zichitika ndiye kuti BoE ndi ECB atha kukakamizidwa kutsatira zomwezo ndikuyamba pulogalamu yawo yokhazikika.
Ponena za nkhani za kalendala yazachuma Lachinayi, kukula kwa GDP kwakusowa momwe zanenedweratu, pofika pa 3.2% YoY, pomwe zidziwitso zoyambira komanso zopitilira ntchito zidasowanso kulosera. Ogulitsa m'misika yaku Japan amapambana kuneneratu, pomwe BOJ imasunga chiwongola dzanja cha -0.1%. Ziwerengero zaku Switzerland zotumiza ndi kutumiza kunja zinali zabwino ndipo zidakwaniritsa zoyembekezeredwa, monganso kuchuluka kwa malonda komwe kudathandizanso MoM. Chiwerengero cha kubwereketsa anthu ku UK kwa Novembala chidasintha pang'ono, ndipo chidaliro cha ogula ku Eurozone chidakwera pang'ono. Kupanga magalimoto ku UK kwalemba kugwa kwakukulu pachaka chilichonse mu 2017, kuyambira pachuma cha 2009.
Ziwerengero zolimbikitsa za anthu ogulitsa ku Canada, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuchuluka kwakukulu mpaka 2.5% mu Okutobala, zophatikizidwa ndi CPI zikukwera pang'ono, zidapangitsa kuti ogulitsa agule dola yaku Canada potengera chikhulupiriro chakuti RBA tsopano ili ndi zida zofunikira kukweza chiwongola dzanja kumayambiliro atsopano chaka. CAD idakwera motsutsana ndi anzawo ambiri, ndikukwera pafupifupi 1% motsutsana ndi USD. Golide adasungabe kukwera kwake kwaposachedwa kuyambira Disembala 12 posachedwa 1236, mpaka nthawi imodzi kufika 200 DMA ya 1269, asanabwezere zina.
EURO
EUR / USD imagulitsidwa pang'onopang'ono 0.2%, kutsekedwa ku 1.186, lathyathyathya patsiku komanso pafupi ndi PP ya tsiku ndi tsiku. EUR / GBP idagulitsanso pamtambo wocheperako (pafupifupi. 0.3%) masana, ndikukondera kumtunda, isanatseke lathyathyathya patsiku la 0.886.
KUCHITA
GBP / USD idakwapulidwa pamlingo wotsika, kugwa kudzera pa S2 kutsika ndi 0.6%, isanayambireni kumapeto kwa tsikulo. GBP / AUD idakwera mpaka R1, isanagwe S2, kutseka tsikulo kutsika ndi 0.6%.
USDOLLAR
USD / JPY idakwera kudzera mu R1, isanagwe kubwerera kumapeto kwa tsiku kufika pa 0.2%. USD / CHF idaphwanya R1, ndikukwera mpaka kufika pafupifupi 0.5%, isanabwezere zina mwazabwino kubwerera ku R1, mpaka pafupifupi 0.3% patsiku la 0.985. USD / CAD idagwa pozungulira 1% patsiku pomwe idagwera S3, kutseka tsikulo ku 1.273.
Golide
XAU / USD idakwapulidwa pamalonda onse, kutsika kudzera pa S1, kutsika ndi 0.3%, kenako kufikira 1269 tsiku lililonse ndikufika ku 200 DMA mpaka 0.3%, isanapindule kumapeto kwa tsiku la 1266.
ZOTHANDIZA ZA MALANGIZO OKWANA KWA DECEMBER 21st.
• DJIA yatseka 0.23%.
• SPX inatseka 0.20%.
• FTSE 100 inatseka 1.05%.
• DAX inatseka 0.31%.
• CAC inatseka 0.52%.
ZINTHU ZOFUNIKA KWAMBIRI ZA CALENDAR ZOCHITIKA DECEMBER 22nd.
• Katundu Wathunthu wa GBP (YoY) (3Q F).
• CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (OCT).
• Maoda Ogulitsa Zinthu a USD (NOV P).
• USD U. wa Mich. Chikumbumtima (DEC F).
• Kugulitsa Kwanyumba Kwatsopano kwa USD (MoM) (NOV).
« Kuganizira kutembenukira ku Japan ndi yen munthawi ya tchuthi, pomwe kuchuluka kwa zidziwitso ku Europe ndi US kumabwerera Msika wa FX umakhala wolondola nthawi zonse, ndi ntchito yathu kukhala kumanja kwamtengo »
