Mantha a Stagflation Akuchokera ku Mavuto azachuma omwe Akubwera
Misika yazachuma imakhudzidwa ndikulimbana pakati pa kukwera kwa mitengo ndi kugwa kwachuma pamene akuyesera kuganiza kuti Federal Reserve isuntha. Izi zikutanthauza kuti osunga ndalama akhoza kunyalanyaza zotsatira zoopsa kwambiri: stagflation.
Kuphatikizika kwa kukula kwachuma pang'onopang'ono ndi kukwera kwa mitengo kosalekeza kungathe kusokoneza chiyembekezo cha kusintha kwa kampeni yamphamvu ya Fed yochepetsa kukwera kwa mitengo mwa kukweza chiwongola dzanja. Izi zitha kuwulula kuganiziridwa molakwika kwa msika, zomwe zitha kukweza mtengo wamasheya, ngongole ndi zinthu zina zowopsa chaka chino.
Izi ndi zomwe akatswiri azachuma amatcha "stagflation lite" ndipo zikuyimira vuto lalikulu lazachuma kwa oyang'anira thumba akunyambitabe mabala awo chifukwa cha kugwa kwankhanza kwamitengo ndi ma bond mu 2022.
Zitsanzo zamakedzana za chuma chomwe chili mkati mwa stagflation ndizochepa, kotero palibe chowongolera ndalama mumtundu woterewu. Kwa oyang'anira ndalama zambiri, malonda omwe amakonda ndi ma bond apamwamba, golide, ndi masheya amakampani omwe amatha kuthana ndi vuto lachuma.
"Payenera kukhala chinachake monga stagflation chaka chino - kukwera kwa inflation ndi kukula pang'onopang'ono - mpaka chinachake chitasweka ndipo Fed ikukakamizika kuchepetsa mitengo," anatero Kelly Wood, woyang'anira ndalama ku Schroders Plc. "Timakhulupirira kuti ma bond adzakhala gulu lalikulu la chuma mu 2023. Kubweza kwapamwamba kwa nthawi yaitali mpaka chinachake chitasweka si malo okongola kwambiri a zinthu zoopsa komanso malo abwino opindula ndi ndalama zokhazikika."
GDP
Bloomberg Economics ikuwona zoopsa zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira, ndikuzitcha "stagflation lite", ndipo kuwunika koyambirira kwa boma pakukula kwachuma mgawo loyamba kumatsimikizira mfundo yawo. Zogulitsa zapakhomo zidakula pamlingo wapachaka wa 1.1% pakati pa Januware ndi Marichi, Bureau of Economic Analysis idanenanso pa Epulo 27. Izi zidapitilira kuyerekeza kwapakatikati ndi akatswiri azachuma mu kafukufuku wa Bloomberg ndipo zidawonetsa kuchepa kwa kukula kwa kotala yapitayi 2.6%. Pakadali pano, mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya Fed, yomwe imapatula chakudya ndi mphamvu, idakwera mpaka 4.9% mgawo loyamba.
Kukwera kwa mitengo
Kupitilira kwa kutsika kwamitengo kumeneku kukutanthauza kuti opanga malamulo atha kukwezanso mitengo pa Meyi 3, ngakhale kupsinjika kwa mabanki kwaposachedwa kukukulitsa chiwongola dzanja m'njira yomwe ikuwopseza kukulitsa zoyesayesa za Fed kuti zichepetse kufunika. Bloomberg Economics's Economics's basic case ndikuti a Fed atenga kaye kaye atakwera mitengo sabata ino, koma akuchenjeza za ngozi yomwe banki yayikulu ingafunikire kuchita zambiri.
Izi zikuwonetseratu chiopsezo cha kusokonezeka kwa msika pamitengo yachiwongoladzanja yachiwongoladzanja, zomwe zimasonyeza kuti gawo limodzi mwa magawo asanu ndi limodzi mwa magawo awiri a magawo awiri mwa magawo asanu ndi atatu adulidwa kumapeto kwa chaka chino.
Anna Wong, mkulu wa bungwe la Anna Wong anati: Economist waku US ku Bloomberg Economics.
Zokolola pamapeto
Mzere wokhotakhota umakhalabe wokhotakhota kwambiri, chizindikiro cha mbiri yakale ya kugwa kwachuma. Zokolola zazaka 10 za bond pafupifupi 3.5% ndi pafupifupi 61 maziko otsika kuposa zokolola zazaka ziwiri.
Komabe njira yokhotakhota ikukulirakuliranso, ndipo kusiyana kwakhala kukucheperachepera kuyambira pomwe zidafika pa 111 pa Marichi 8 - kutembenuka kwakuya kwambiri kuyambira koyambirira kwa 1980s - chifukwa kulephera kwa mabanki ena am'madera kumakulitsa nkhawa zaku US komanso chiyembekezo chamafuta. kudulidwa ndi Fed.
Ndalama za Hedge zawonjezera kubetcha motsutsana ndi ndalama za US, chizindikiro chakuti amakhulupirira kuti msika wamalonda ulibe mtengo pambuyo poyambira kwambiri chaka. Akuchitanso kubetcherana kwakukulu motsutsana ndi chuma - ndalama zogwiritsidwa ntchito, kuyambira pa Epulo 25, zidapanga pafupifupi kubetcha kwakukulu komwe kunatsika pakutsika kwazaka 10 zamtsogolo.
zitsulo Precious
Osunga ndalama ena akutembenukira ku zitsulo zamtengo wapatali monga malo otetezeka. Matthew McLennan, wa First Eagle Investments, adanena kuti pafupifupi 15% yamakampani padziko lonse lapansi ali ndi migodi ndi golide ngati njira yothanirana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo komanso kutsika kwa dola pakati pa mantha a "zovuta zadongosolo" m'misika.
« Momwe Mungagwiritsire Ntchito Avereji Yeniyeni Yowona Pamalonda Amasiku? Chizindikiro cha MACD - Chimagwira Ntchito Motani? »
