Black Swan, Ulova ndi Osadziwika
Msonkhano wapachaka wa chipani cha UK Conservative udatha Lachitatu. Mphekesera zakhala zikumveka kuti boma la mgwirizano ku UK latsala pang'ono kukakamizidwa kukakamira ndikuchepetsa misonkho makumi asanu peresenti chifukwa, malinga ndi malingaliro a Conservatives ambiri, sizimapereka ndalama zochulukirapo. Kukayikira ndikuti kuchuluka kwamisonkho kumalepheretsanso amalonda kukhazikitsa mabizinesi atsopano. Zikhulupiriro zonsezi sizokayikitsa kuti zingayang'anitsitsidwe. Kulingalira kuti wochita bizinesi adzalepheretsa kukhazikitsa bizinesi yatsopano chifukwa chodandaula za kuchuluka kwa misonkho ndizopanda pake. Momwemonso misonkho ya 150%, yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito kwa omwe amalandira ndalama zoposa $ 7k pachaka, zitha kupanga mpaka $ XNUMX biliyoni pachaka malinga ndi mgwirizano wa omwe amapereka ku UK. Osati ndalama zazing'ono pomwe UK ikukambidwa ndi Prime Minister wawo kuti adule malo ogulitsira ndi makhadi a ngongole ndikukhala moyo wovuta.
Chipani chademokalase ku USA chikupitabe patsogolo ndi msonkho wa 'mamilionea', ndipo mosiyana ndi boma la mgwirizano waku UK. achita 'zowerengera' zawo moyenera. Ndi zowunikira monga Warren Buffett akuyesera kuti athandizidwe pakati pa omwe amacheza nawo pamisonkho yowonjezera kwa olemera izi zitha kukopa. Malinga ndi masamuwo msonkho wowonjezerapo asanu peresenti kwa omwe amalandira $ 1 miliyoni pachaka amatha kupanga $ 450billion yowonjezera pachaka. Ndalama zambiri zomwe zitha kutsimikizira ntchito zofunikira pagulu ku USA. Ndondomeko ya ntchito ya Purezidenti Obama yomwe idawululidwa koyambirira kwa Seputembala ikawononga pafupifupi $ 477 biliyoni, olemerawo atha kunyadira kuti misonkho yomwe adapereka idalimbikitsa mwayi wantchito m'dongosolo lomwe lawathandiza kupindula motere. Atsogoleri a Senate Democratic alengeza pempholi lero pomwe opanga malamulo akufuna kukambirana za momwe angalimbikitsire chuma. Mtsogoleri Wamkulu Harry Reid, Democrat wa Nevada, adati lero msonkho wa 5% ungapezeke mpaka $ 450 biliyoni. Mademokrasi adalankhula ndi a Republican, omwe amakana kukwera msonkho, kuti aletse dongosolo.
Osadziwika, gulu la omwe amabera milandu mwachinyengo omwe akuukira mawebusayiti amakampani komanso aboma, alumbira kuti achotsa New York Stock Exchange "pa intaneti" pa Okutobala 10. Gululi lidatumiza uthenga pa YouTube wonena za nkhondo pamsika waukulu kwambiri padziko lonse pobwezera chifukwa chomangidwa kwambiri ndi otsutsa ku Wall Street. Uthengawu sunafotokozere ngati chiwopsezocho chikungotanthauza kuwukira tsamba la NYSE, zomwe sizingakhudze malonda. Wosadziwika adayambitsa kukana kuzunzidwa kwamawebusayiti kwa miyezi ingapo, kuphatikiza zomwe zidachitika mu Disembala motsutsana ndi masamba a MasterCard Inc. ndi Visa Inc.
Chiwopsezo chikutsutsidwa ndi mamembala ena a Anonymous, omwe adati pa Twitter kuti sanalandiridwe. Cholemba pa Anonnews.org chinati zinali zosatheka kutsimikizira ntchitoyi chifukwa cha mtundu wa Anonymous monga bungwe "lopanda maudindo akuluakulu."
Nassim Taleb, wolemba buku logulitsidwa kwambiri la "The Black Swan," watero lero pamsonkhano wa atolankhani ku Kiev kuti kusokonekera kwamisika yapadziko lonse lapansi kuli koyipa kuposa 2008 chifukwa mayiko monga US ali ndi ngongole zambiri zodziyimira pawokha.
Zachidziwikire, tikukumana ndi vuto lalikulu tsopano ndipo tilipira mtengo wokwera. Kapangidwe kavuto sikamvetsetsedwe. Sitinachite chilichonse chothandiza m'zaka zitatu ndi theka. Palibe amene akufuna kuchita chilichonse chowopsa tsopano.
Taleb adatchukitsa mawu oti "black swan", omwe amachokera pachikhulupiriro chomwe chidalipo kale chakumadzulo kuti ma swans onse anali oyera mpaka pomwe ofufuza adapeza mitundu yakuda ku Australia ku 1697. Adanenetsa kuti zochitika zosayembekezereka zomwe zimakhudza kwambiri misika zimachitika pafupipafupi kuposa ziwerengero kusanthula kumaneneratu, potero kuwonetsetsa mtengo wokwera wokutetezera masoka.
Olemba ntchito ku US adalengeza zakudula ntchito kwambiri mzaka ziwiri mu Seputembala, motsogozedwa ndi kuchepetsedwa ku Bank of America Corp. ndi asitikali. Zolengezedwa zomwe zidalengezedwa zidakwera 212%, kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kuyambira Januware 2009, mpaka 115,730 mwezi watha kuchokera 37,151 mu Seputembara 2010, malinga ndi Chicago-based Challenger, Grey & Christmas Inc. Kudula pantchito zaboma, motsogozedwa ndi dongosolo lankhondo lochepetsa zaka zisanu, ndipo ku Bank of America adalemba pafupifupi 70% yazilengezo. Kuchepa kwa ntchito, komabe, kunali kosemphana ndi lipoti lapadera la purosesa ya ADP yomwe imawonetsa kuti malipiro onse achinsinsi adakwera ndi 91,000, kuposa zomwe akatswiri azachuma akuyembekeza kuti achulukane ndi 75,000. ADP yati zopindulitsa zambiri, zomwe zidapitilira kuchuluka kwa Ogasiti 89,000, zidachokera mgululi.
Masheya olimbikitsidwa ndi zinthu zinawononga kuchepa kwamasiku atatu pomwe zambiri zachuma zaku US zachulukitsa kuyerekezera ndikukhala ndi chiyembekezo kuti atsogoleri aku Europe athetsanso mabanki. Magawo amagetsi amatsogolera kupindula chifukwa mafuta akuchulukirachulukira kutsatira kugwa mosayembekezereka. SPX idakwera 1.8% kutseka 1,144.03 nthawi ya 4 koloko masana ku New York, ndikuwonjezera kuwonjezeka kwa dzulo kwa 2.3% kuwonetsa phindu lalikulu la masiku awiri pamwezi. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index idakwera 3.1 peresenti, ikuletsa kugwa kwamasiku atatu. S&P GSCI Index yazogulitsa idakwera 2.8 peresenti pomwe mafuta adakwera 5.3 peresenti mpaka $ 79.68 mbiya, kuchoka pa 7.9% kudumpha m'magawo atatu apitawa. Tsogolo la Britain FTSE equity index likusonyeza kutsegulidwa pang'ono mu gawo la London, chiwerengerochi pakadali pano chikukwera 0.5%. tsogolo la SPX latsika pafupifupi 0.3%.
Kutulutsa kwazachuma komwe kungakhudze malingaliro pamaphunziro am'mawa ku London ndi Europe ndi awa:
09: 30 UK - Index ya Ntchito Julayi
12: 00 UK - Kulengeza Kwa MPC Rate
12: 45 Eurozone - Kulengezedwa Kwa Mtengo wa ECB
Ulosiwu ndikuti mitengo ya UK ndi ECB iyenera kusungidwa pamlingo wofanana. Panali mphekesera zomwe zidayamba kumayambiriro kwa Seputembara kuti ECB ikuganiza zochepetsa mitengo, komabe, chifukwa chodabwitsika kwa kukwera kwamitengo ku Europe kuwululidwa sabata yatha, kuchuluka kwakukwera ndi theka lathunthu kuchokera ku 2.5-3%, kuchepa kulikonse pamlingo woyambira ndi ndizokayikitsa kwambiri.
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