Novembala 16 • Ndemanga za Msika • 5557 Views • Comments Off Pamwamba pa Zero Ndi New Norm
Zomwe zimachitika pakadali pano pakuwunika pamisika, pothirira ndemanga pazotulutsa zopangidwa ndi mabungwe osiyanasiyana aboma kapena ofalitsa olemekezeka, ndikuwunika mayendedwe ang'onoang'ono ndikupanga zokambirana pazosiyana kulikonse. Pomwe kale kayendedwe ka circa 0.5% kakhoza kuonedwa ngati "phokoso" losafunikira chifukwa chitha kukhala chowerengera kapena cholakwika, tsopano ndi cholozera ku "moyo kapena imfa yachuma". Asanachitike mavuto azachuma a 2008-2009 ofufuza ndi akatswiri azachuma amayang'ana manambala a 1% pamwezi ngati umboni wokula m'makalata ambiri azachuma. Kukula kwa 0.1% 'kwasanthulidwa kwambiri' ndikufinyidwa pamtengo wake wonse pazofalitsa monga umboni wakusintha.
Akatswiri ambiri, akatswiri azachuma komanso olemba ndemanga ali ndi mlandu wosakhala mdziko lenileni ngati ma data ali ndi nkhawa, amalephera kuwona 'mitengo ya mitengo'. Kusuntha kwazing'ono kumeneku kumangokhala umboni wa kuchepa kapena kusayenda bwino kwenikweni. Ngakhale panali nkhawa pokhudzana ndi ngongole zachuma chotukuka mayiko ambiri ku Europe ndi Asia / Pacific ndi USA ngati bungwe limodzi akungodumphadumpha. Kubwereranso kumatanthauzidwe nthawi zonse kumawoneka ngati kubwereza, kutanthauza kuti chiwerengerocho chili pafupi ndi zero komabe kutsindika kumayikidwabe pamadongosolo azosintha. Pomwe gawo lazinthu likanatha ngati atolankhani atanena; "Ziwerengero lero, zikuwoneka ngati zachizolowezi pamwambapa kukula, ho hum" kuwunika kwenikweni kungapangitse kuchoka ndi kutsitsimula.
Chifukwa chake tiwone manambala akuluakulu, tibisalire pansi pa tebulo, ndiuzeni nthawi yabwino kutuluka nambala yayikulu ..
Kuyang'ana ku USA patokha mawu omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri ndikuti pamadola khumi aliwonse okula awonjezerapo ngongole zisanu ndi zitatu. Makumi asanu ndi atatu peresenti yakukula kuyambira 2009 yakhala 'yogulidwa' powonjezera ngongole kudzera m'misika yama bond, ma bailouts, kuchepetsa zochulukirapo kapena kukulitsa ngongole. Mwachidule sipanakhaleko kukula kwachilengedwe, kwakukulukulu kwakhala kukukula kopanga. Pamene tikukambirana za deta imodzi makamaka ndikofunikira kuyang'ana pang'ono (kapena kuyang'anitsitsa ngati mukukhala olimba mtima) pa mfundo imodzi yokha; zingati, kuyambira 2008-2009 crunch, USA idakulitsa ngongole yake ce. USA idakulitsa ngongole yake pafupifupi $ 500 bl pachaka kuyambira 2003 komanso 40% kuyambira 2008-2009. Kuwonjezeka kwaposachedwa pa Seputembara 8 kudakhala kuwonjezeka kwachitatu kwa kubweza ngongole m'miyezi 19, kuwonjezeka kwachisanu kuyambira Purezidenti Obama atayamba ntchito, ndikuwonjezeka kwachisanu ndi chiwiri mzaka 10. Komabe, nayi nambala yowopsa yomwe ingatumize omwe adakwera kuchokera pansi pa nsalu patebulo, awotchera pamtengo wapachaka mkati mwa miyezi iwiri yapitayi ..
Ngongole Zapagulu za USA
Ngongole zapagulu zawonjezeka kupitirira $ 500 biliyoni chaka chilichonse kuyambira chaka chachuma (FY) 2003, ndikuwonjezeka kwa $ 1 trilioni mu FY2008, $ 1.9 trilioni mu FY2009, ndi $ 1.7 trilioni mu FY2010. Kuyambira pa Okutobala 22, 2011, ngongole yayikulu idali $ 14.94 trilioni, pomwe $ 10.20 trilioni idasungidwa ndi anthu ndipo $ 4.74 trilioni anali m'maboma apakati. Katundu wapadziko lonse lapansi (GDP) mpaka kumapeto kwa Juni 2011 anali $ 15.003 trilioni (kuyerekezera pa Julayi 29, 2011), ndi ngongole yaboma yonse yomwe idalipo pa 99.6% ya GDP, komanso ngongole zomwe anthu amakhala nazo pa 68% ya GDP .
GDP ndiyeso ya kukula kwathunthu ndi zotuluka zachuma. Gawo limodzi la ngongole ndi kukula kwake poyerekeza ndi GDP. M'chaka chachuma cha 2007, ngongole zaku US zomwe anthu anali nazo zinali pafupifupi $ 5 trilioni (36.8% ya GDP) ndipo ngongole yonse inali $ 9 trilioni (65.5% ya GDP). Ngongole zomwe anthu amakhala nazo zimaimira ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa kwa iwo omwe ali ndi zotetezedwa ndi boma monga ndalama za Treasury ndi ma bond.
Kutengera ndi bajeti yaku US yaku 2010, ngongole zadziko lonse zitha kuwirikiza kawiri m'ma dollar pakati pa 2008 ndi 2015 ndipo zikula kufika pafupifupi 100% ya GDP, poyerekeza pafupifupi 80% koyambirira kwa 2009. Magwero angapo aboma kuphatikiza azomwe akutsogolera komanso apitawo , GAO, Treasure department, ndi CBO anena kuti US ili panjira yachuma yosasinthika. Komabe, zisanachitike, ngongole zonse zadziko zidafika 100% pofika gawo lachitatu la 2011.
Komabe, kubwerera ku ziwerengero zotetezeka, kuchuluka kwakukula kwa Eurozone kotala lomaliza kunali kokhumudwitsa momwe kudaliri. Chuma cha euro chidakwera ndi 0.2% mu kotala lachitatu pomwe kukula kolimba ku Germany ndi France kudasokonekera chifukwa cha mayiko kumapeto kwa mavuto azachuma ndipo azachuma akuyembekeza kuchepa kwachuma pofika chaka chamawa. Kukula kuyambira Julayi mpaka Seputembala kunali kofanana ndi kotala yachiwiri, koma chiyembekezo cha miyezi itatu yapitayi ya 2011 sichidziwika bwino, ndikuchulukirachulukira kwa ngongole m'derali komwe kumakhudza chidwi komanso chidaliro cha ogula.
European Commission ikuyembekeza kuti chuma cha mayiko 17 omwe akugwiritsa ntchito yuro achepetse 0.1% m'miyezi itatu yapitayi ya chaka motsutsana ndi kotala lachitatu ndikukhazikika m'gawo loyamba la 2012. Akatswiri azachuma akuti kutsika kwachuma kwathunthu - magawo awiri mwa magawo awiri azinthu zotsalira - zinali zotheka, ngakhale kutalika kwake ndi kuzama kwake kudadalira momwe angayankhire pamavuto olipilira.
Spain, chuma chachinayi chachikulu kwambiri m'chigawo cha yuro, idayimilira kotala lachitatu. Pomwe vuto la ngongole latsala pang'ono kuthana ndi ntchito komanso omwe adzapambane pachisankho cha Lamlungu akulonjeza kuti azikulitsa ndalama, zachuma sizingachotsedwe. Portugal yoyandikana nayo, yolandila kuchotsedwa kwa EU / IMF, ili kale mgulu lachuma ndipo kuchepa kwake kudakulirakulira m'gawo lachitatu. Chuma chake chidachepa ndi 0.4% pamiyezi itatu.
mwachidule Market
Mabungwe aku Europe ndi mabungwe aboma aku Italiya apita mgulu lakum'mawa, yuro idawonongeka pomwe Prime Minister-Italy osankhidwa a Mario Monti pomaliza adakonzekera kupanga nduna yatsopano.
Index ya Stoxx Europe 600 idakwera ndi 0.6% kuyambira 9:00 am ku London. Tsogolo la Standard & Poor's 500 Index silinasinthidwe pang'ono, ndikuyerekeza kutsika kwa 1.2%. Yuro idafooketsa 0.1% mpaka $ 1.3529 atagwa kale 0.8%. Zokolola pamalipiro azaka 10 zakuboma ku Italy zidagwera pamiyeso 14 mpaka 6.93 peresenti. S & P 500 Index idapeza 0.5% dzulo. Malipoti azachuma lero atha kuwonetsa kuti mafakitale aku US adakwera ndi 0.4 peresenti mu Okutobala, kuwirikiza kawiri mwezi wapitawo.
Kujambula pamsika nthawi ya 10:15 am GMT (UK)
Misika yaku Asia / Pacific idatsika kwambiri pamalonda usiku wam'mawa, a Nikkei adatseka 0.92%, Hang Seng idatseka 2.0% ndipo CSI idatsika 2.72%. ASX 200 idatseka 0.89% kutsika 9.74% pachaka. Ku Europe kuchuluka kwa ma virus omwe akutsogolera ali m'malo abwino. STOXX yakwera 1.05%, UK FTSE ikukwera 0.26%, CAC ikukwera 0.75% ndipo DAX ikukwera 0.70%. MIB ikutsogolera chiwongola dzanja cha 1.88% ndipo chiwonetsero chazosinthana ku Athens ndiye chotsalira chotsalira 1.66%. Mbiya ya Brent imakhala yokwanira madola sikisi mbiya ndipo golide amatsika madola asanu paunzi.
Kutulutsa kwazachuma komwe kungakhudze malingaliro mgawo lamasana
12: 00 US - MBA Ngongole Zofunsira 11 Novembala
13:30 US - CPI Okutobala
14:00 US - TIC Imayenda Seputembala
14:15 US - Industrial Production Okutobala
14:15 US - Kugwiritsa Ntchito Mphamvu mu Okutobala
15: 00 US - NAHB Nyumba Yamsika Index Novembala
Mosakayikira nkhani yodziwika bwino kwambiri yazachuma idzakhala ziwerengero zopanga mafakitale ku USA. Ziwerengero zofufuza za Bloomberg za akatswiri zimaneneratu kuchuluka kwa 0.4% mwezi uno poyerekeza ndi chiwonetsero cham'mbuyomu cha 0.2%.
kukula kwachumamavuto a ku Ulaya
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Zero Pamwamba pa Zero Ndi New Norm
Novembala 16 • Ndemanga za Msika • 5557 Views • Comments Off Pamwamba pa Zero Ndi New Norm
Zomwe zimachitika pakadali pano pakuwunika pamisika, pothirira ndemanga pazotulutsa zopangidwa ndi mabungwe osiyanasiyana aboma kapena ofalitsa olemekezeka, ndikuwunika mayendedwe ang'onoang'ono ndikupanga zokambirana pazosiyana kulikonse. Pomwe kale kayendedwe ka circa 0.5% kakhoza kuonedwa ngati "phokoso" losafunikira chifukwa chitha kukhala chowerengera kapena cholakwika, tsopano ndi cholozera ku "moyo kapena imfa yachuma". Asanachitike mavuto azachuma a 2008-2009 ofufuza ndi akatswiri azachuma amayang'ana manambala a 1% pamwezi ngati umboni wokula m'makalata ambiri azachuma. Kukula kwa 0.1% 'kwasanthulidwa kwambiri' ndikufinyidwa pamtengo wake wonse pazofalitsa monga umboni wakusintha.
Akatswiri ambiri, akatswiri azachuma komanso olemba ndemanga ali ndi mlandu wosakhala mdziko lenileni ngati ma data ali ndi nkhawa, amalephera kuwona 'mitengo ya mitengo'. Kusuntha kwazing'ono kumeneku kumangokhala umboni wa kuchepa kapena kusayenda bwino kwenikweni. Ngakhale panali nkhawa pokhudzana ndi ngongole zachuma chotukuka mayiko ambiri ku Europe ndi Asia / Pacific ndi USA ngati bungwe limodzi akungodumphadumpha. Kubwereranso kumatanthauzidwe nthawi zonse kumawoneka ngati kubwereza, kutanthauza kuti chiwerengerocho chili pafupi ndi zero komabe kutsindika kumayikidwabe pamadongosolo azosintha. Pomwe gawo lazinthu likanatha ngati atolankhani atanena; "Ziwerengero lero, zikuwoneka ngati zachizolowezi pamwambapa kukula, ho hum" kuwunika kwenikweni kungapangitse kuchoka ndi kutsitsimula.
Chifukwa chake tiwone manambala akuluakulu, tibisalire pansi pa tebulo, ndiuzeni nthawi yabwino kutuluka nambala yayikulu ..
Kuyang'ana ku USA patokha mawu omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri ndikuti pamadola khumi aliwonse okula awonjezerapo ngongole zisanu ndi zitatu. Makumi asanu ndi atatu peresenti yakukula kuyambira 2009 yakhala 'yogulidwa' powonjezera ngongole kudzera m'misika yama bond, ma bailouts, kuchepetsa zochulukirapo kapena kukulitsa ngongole. Mwachidule sipanakhaleko kukula kwachilengedwe, kwakukulukulu kwakhala kukukula kopanga. Pamene tikukambirana za deta imodzi makamaka ndikofunikira kuyang'ana pang'ono (kapena kuyang'anitsitsa ngati mukukhala olimba mtima) pa mfundo imodzi yokha; zingati, kuyambira 2008-2009 crunch, USA idakulitsa ngongole yake ce. USA idakulitsa ngongole yake pafupifupi $ 500 bl pachaka kuyambira 2003 komanso 40% kuyambira 2008-2009. Kuwonjezeka kwaposachedwa pa Seputembara 8 kudakhala kuwonjezeka kwachitatu kwa kubweza ngongole m'miyezi 19, kuwonjezeka kwachisanu kuyambira Purezidenti Obama atayamba ntchito, ndikuwonjezeka kwachisanu ndi chiwiri mzaka 10. Komabe, nayi nambala yowopsa yomwe ingatumize omwe adakwera kuchokera pansi pa nsalu patebulo, awotchera pamtengo wapachaka mkati mwa miyezi iwiri yapitayi ..
Ngongole Zapagulu za USA
Ngongole zapagulu zawonjezeka kupitirira $ 500 biliyoni chaka chilichonse kuyambira chaka chachuma (FY) 2003, ndikuwonjezeka kwa $ 1 trilioni mu FY2008, $ 1.9 trilioni mu FY2009, ndi $ 1.7 trilioni mu FY2010. Kuyambira pa Okutobala 22, 2011, ngongole yayikulu idali $ 14.94 trilioni, pomwe $ 10.20 trilioni idasungidwa ndi anthu ndipo $ 4.74 trilioni anali m'maboma apakati. Katundu wapadziko lonse lapansi (GDP) mpaka kumapeto kwa Juni 2011 anali $ 15.003 trilioni (kuyerekezera pa Julayi 29, 2011), ndi ngongole yaboma yonse yomwe idalipo pa 99.6% ya GDP, komanso ngongole zomwe anthu amakhala nazo pa 68% ya GDP .
GDP ndiyeso ya kukula kwathunthu ndi zotuluka zachuma. Gawo limodzi la ngongole ndi kukula kwake poyerekeza ndi GDP. M'chaka chachuma cha 2007, ngongole zaku US zomwe anthu anali nazo zinali pafupifupi $ 5 trilioni (36.8% ya GDP) ndipo ngongole yonse inali $ 9 trilioni (65.5% ya GDP). Ngongole zomwe anthu amakhala nazo zimaimira ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa kwa iwo omwe ali ndi zotetezedwa ndi boma monga ndalama za Treasury ndi ma bond.
Kutengera ndi bajeti yaku US yaku 2010, ngongole zadziko lonse zitha kuwirikiza kawiri m'ma dollar pakati pa 2008 ndi 2015 ndipo zikula kufika pafupifupi 100% ya GDP, poyerekeza pafupifupi 80% koyambirira kwa 2009. Magwero angapo aboma kuphatikiza azomwe akutsogolera komanso apitawo , GAO, Treasure department, ndi CBO anena kuti US ili panjira yachuma yosasinthika. Komabe, zisanachitike, ngongole zonse zadziko zidafika 100% pofika gawo lachitatu la 2011.
Komabe, kubwerera ku ziwerengero zotetezeka, kuchuluka kwakukula kwa Eurozone kotala lomaliza kunali kokhumudwitsa momwe kudaliri. Chuma cha euro chidakwera ndi 0.2% mu kotala lachitatu pomwe kukula kolimba ku Germany ndi France kudasokonekera chifukwa cha mayiko kumapeto kwa mavuto azachuma ndipo azachuma akuyembekeza kuchepa kwachuma pofika chaka chamawa. Kukula kuyambira Julayi mpaka Seputembala kunali kofanana ndi kotala yachiwiri, koma chiyembekezo cha miyezi itatu yapitayi ya 2011 sichidziwika bwino, ndikuchulukirachulukira kwa ngongole m'derali komwe kumakhudza chidwi komanso chidaliro cha ogula.
European Commission ikuyembekeza kuti chuma cha mayiko 17 omwe akugwiritsa ntchito yuro achepetse 0.1% m'miyezi itatu yapitayi ya chaka motsutsana ndi kotala lachitatu ndikukhazikika m'gawo loyamba la 2012. Akatswiri azachuma akuti kutsika kwachuma kwathunthu - magawo awiri mwa magawo awiri azinthu zotsalira - zinali zotheka, ngakhale kutalika kwake ndi kuzama kwake kudadalira momwe angayankhire pamavuto olipilira.
Spain, chuma chachinayi chachikulu kwambiri m'chigawo cha yuro, idayimilira kotala lachitatu. Pomwe vuto la ngongole latsala pang'ono kuthana ndi ntchito komanso omwe adzapambane pachisankho cha Lamlungu akulonjeza kuti azikulitsa ndalama, zachuma sizingachotsedwe. Portugal yoyandikana nayo, yolandila kuchotsedwa kwa EU / IMF, ili kale mgulu lachuma ndipo kuchepa kwake kudakulirakulira m'gawo lachitatu. Chuma chake chidachepa ndi 0.4% pamiyezi itatu.
mwachidule Market
Mabungwe aku Europe ndi mabungwe aboma aku Italiya apita mgulu lakum'mawa, yuro idawonongeka pomwe Prime Minister-Italy osankhidwa a Mario Monti pomaliza adakonzekera kupanga nduna yatsopano.
Index ya Stoxx Europe 600 idakwera ndi 0.6% kuyambira 9:00 am ku London. Tsogolo la Standard & Poor's 500 Index silinasinthidwe pang'ono, ndikuyerekeza kutsika kwa 1.2%. Yuro idafooketsa 0.1% mpaka $ 1.3529 atagwa kale 0.8%. Zokolola pamalipiro azaka 10 zakuboma ku Italy zidagwera pamiyeso 14 mpaka 6.93 peresenti. S & P 500 Index idapeza 0.5% dzulo. Malipoti azachuma lero atha kuwonetsa kuti mafakitale aku US adakwera ndi 0.4 peresenti mu Okutobala, kuwirikiza kawiri mwezi wapitawo.
Kujambula pamsika nthawi ya 10:15 am GMT (UK)
Misika yaku Asia / Pacific idatsika kwambiri pamalonda usiku wam'mawa, a Nikkei adatseka 0.92%, Hang Seng idatseka 2.0% ndipo CSI idatsika 2.72%. ASX 200 idatseka 0.89% kutsika 9.74% pachaka. Ku Europe kuchuluka kwa ma virus omwe akutsogolera ali m'malo abwino. STOXX yakwera 1.05%, UK FTSE ikukwera 0.26%, CAC ikukwera 0.75% ndipo DAX ikukwera 0.70%. MIB ikutsogolera chiwongola dzanja cha 1.88% ndipo chiwonetsero chazosinthana ku Athens ndiye chotsalira chotsalira 1.66%. Mbiya ya Brent imakhala yokwanira madola sikisi mbiya ndipo golide amatsika madola asanu paunzi.
Kutulutsa kwazachuma komwe kungakhudze malingaliro mgawo lamasana
12: 00 US - MBA Ngongole Zofunsira 11 Novembala
13:30 US - CPI Okutobala
14:00 US - TIC Imayenda Seputembala
14:15 US - Industrial Production Okutobala
14:15 US - Kugwiritsa Ntchito Mphamvu mu Okutobala
15: 00 US - NAHB Nyumba Yamsika Index Novembala
Mosakayikira nkhani yodziwika bwino kwambiri yazachuma idzakhala ziwerengero zopanga mafakitale ku USA. Ziwerengero zofufuza za Bloomberg za akatswiri zimaneneratu kuchuluka kwa 0.4% mwezi uno poyerekeza ndi chiwonetsero cham'mbuyomu cha 0.2%.
kukula kwachumamavuto a ku Ulaya
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