Mbiri Yakale ya Dollar Surge Imasewera M'manja mwa Fed
Dola ikukwera kwambiri motsutsana ndi ndalama zazikulu zapadziko lonse lapansi, ikuyandikira mbiri yapachaka pafupifupi zaka 40 ndi phindu lachitatu lalikulu kuyambira Purezidenti Richard Nixon adathetsa golide zaka zoposa 50 zapitazo.
Kodi Fed Ikukhudzidwa ndi Kuyamikira Kwamphamvu kwa Dollar? Ayi konse
Zinthu zina zonse kukhala zofanana, dola yamphamvu idzathandizira kuchepetsa kupanikizika kwa mitengo mwa kuchepetsa ndalama zogulira katundu ndi kulimbitsa zinthu zachuma, zomwe ndi cholinga cha Jerome Powell ndi anzake, omwe akuyesera kubweretsa kutsika kwa mitengo ku 2% kwa zaka 40, apamwamba kwambiri m'zaka 40.
Mphindi za msonkhano wa Fed kuchokera ku 26.-27. July, pamene adakweza ndalama za federal ndi mfundo za 75 pa mwezi wachiwiri wowongoka, akuwonetsa kuti opanga ndondomeko amawona zotsatira za dola yamphamvu pamtengo wogula katundu monga chimodzi mwa zinthu zochepa zomwe zingathandize kubwezeretsa kutsika kwa ndalama.
Mkangano wokhudza momwe dola ikukhudzira kukwera kwa inflation pambuyo pa mliri ukukula. Komabe, Federal Reserve imakonda kukwera mtengo wosinthira.
"Fed ilola kuti izi zipitirire. Palibe cholimbikitsa kuyimitsa. Dola yamphamvu sidzawapweteka ndipo ingawathandize,” anatero Brad Bechtel, mkulu wa ndalama zapadziko lonse ku Jefferies ku New York.
Dola ikukwera mozungulira zaka 20 polimbana ndi dengu landalama zazikulu. Zakwera 13.5% chaka chino, ndikuyika phindu lake lalikulu kwambiri lakalendala kuyambira 1984 komanso lachitatu pakukula kuyambira dola idachotsedwa ku golide mu 1971.
Dola yakwera pafupifupi 17% chaka chino, malinga ndi deta yapachaka yomwe nthawi zambiri imaphatikizidwa mumiyeso ya inflation. Ichi ndiye chiwongola dzanja champhamvu kwambiri pakutsitsa kukwera kwa mitengo kuyambira 2015, ndipo ambiri amakhulupirira kuti izi zitha chifukwa cha kusiyana kwa chiwongola dzanja.
Mosiyana ndi mabanki apakati a Japan ndi China, Fed ikufuna kukwezanso chiwongola dzanja. People's Bank of China tsopano ikuyenda mbali ina.
Kuphatikiza apo, misika ikubetcha kuti chuma cha US chidzakhala bwino kuposa anzawo aku UK ndi eurozone, akuvutika ndi kusowa kwa mphamvu m'nyengo yozizira. Ndipo ngati kugwa kwachipale chofewa padziko lonse lapansi, kufunikira kwakunja kwa malo otetezeka a Treasury kumatha kufooketsa dola.
Phindu losalunjika
Malinga ndi a Jefferies 'Brad Bechtel, kukwera kwa 10% pamtengo wonse wa dola kunali kofanana ndi kukwera kwamitengo pafupifupi 75 maziko. Akatswiri azachuma ku Societe Generale awerengera kuti kukwera kwa 10% kwa dola kudzapangitsa kuti mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya US igwe ndi 0.5% pachaka. Malinga ndi lipoti la Kansas City Fed, dola yamphamvu imakhala ndi zotsatira zochepa kwambiri pamitengo ya ogula, osachepera pakali pano.
Chiwongola dzanja cha 8.5% pa dollar kuyambira Meyi chaka chatha chikuyerekezeredwa kuti chatsitsa kukwera kwa ndalama kwa ogula ndi 0.2%. Kuyamikira kwinanso 5% kudzatengera chiwerengerochi kufika pa 0.33% kumapeto kwa chaka chamawa.
Sikokwanira.
"Kuyamikira kwakukulu kwa dola kumafunika kuti mukhale ndi kukwera kwa inflation," olembawo analemba m'nkhani yotchedwa "Kuyamikira kwaposachedwa kwa dola sikungakhudze kwambiri kukwera kwa inflation."
Iwo atsimikiza kuti mphamvu ya dollar yochepetsera kukwera kwa mitengo ingakhale yocheperako masiku ano kuposa momwe zakhalira m'mbuyomu, kuwonetsa kusokonekera kwazinthu zaku US komanso kusokonekera kwazinthu zokhudzana ndi mliri.
Ngati akuluakulu a Fed akuganiza choncho, ndiye kuti akhoza kutsutsidwa kuti ali okondwa kwambiri ndi ndalama zomwe zilipo panopa ndipo sangatsutse kukwera kwina. M'malo mwake, atha kukhalabe choncho bola ngati chiwongola dzanja chisafulumire kwambiri ndipo kusokonekera kwachuma kwachuma kukuwopseza.
"Dola yamphamvu ndi zotsatira za ndondomeko ya Fed ndi phindu losalunjika kwa Fed," anatero John Sylvia, katswiri wa zachuma ndi woyambitsa Dynamic Economic Strategy.
Pali zizindikiro zina kuti msonkhano waposachedwa wa dollar wayamba kuwononga misika yazachuma. The US Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (FCI) idakwera 25.5 maziko sabata yatha mpaka 99.30. Malinga ndi banki, gawo lalikulu kwambiri la munthu ndi 10.2 bp. - Yatsika motsutsana ndi dola.
Izi zidabweza gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a FCI yomwe idatsika pang'onopang'ono kuyambira mwezi wa June, pomwe misika yamalonda ndi ngongole zidayambanso kubwerera pomwe Ndalama idakwera mitengo ndi 75 basis points. Nkhani yabwino kwa a Fed, koma amafunikira zambiri.
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