Lingaliro la Elliot Wave ndi Misala ya Makamu
Katswiri wofufuza komanso wodziwika pamsika Robert Prechter adakumana ndi ntchito ya Ralph Elliott akugwira ntchito ngati msika wamsika ku banki yabizinesi Merrill Lynch. Kutchuka kwake monga wolosera zam'mbuyo, pamsika wang'ombe wazaka za m'ma 1980, zidabweretsa chidwi chachikulu pantchito ya Elliott.
Prechter amakhalabe katswiri wofufuza kwambiri wa Elliott. Robert Prechter ndi wolemba komanso wolemba nawo mabuku 14, buku lake "Conquer the Crash" linali logulitsa kwambiri ku New York Times. Adafalitsa ndemanga zawo zandalama mwezi uliwonse m'kalata yonena za "The Elliott Wave Theorist" yochokera ku 1979 ndipo ndi amene adayambitsa Elliott Wave International. Prechter adakhala mgulu la Market Technicians Association kwa zaka zisanu ndi zinayi. M'zaka zaposachedwa Prechter adathandizira kafukufuku wama socionomics, lingaliro lokhudza chikhalidwe cha anthu.
Ralph Elliott anali katswiri wowerengera ndalama, yemwe adapeza maziko azikhalidwe ndikukonza zida zowunikira zomwe pambuyo pake zimadziwika kuti Elliot Wave Principle m'ma 1930. Adanenanso kuti mitengo yamsika ifalikire m'njira zodziwika bwino, zomwe akatswiri masiku ano amazitcha mafunde a Elliott, kapena "mafunde" chabe. Elliott adasindikiza malingaliro ake pamsika m'buku "The Wave Principle" mu 1938 ndipo adalifotokoza momveka bwino mu ntchito yake yayikulu, "Malamulo Achilengedwe: Chinsinsi Chachilengedwe" mu 1946. Elliott adanena kuti "chifukwa munthu amayenera kutsatira njira , kuwerengera kokhudzana ndi ntchito zake kumatha kuwerengedwa mtsogolo ndi zifukwa zomveka komanso zowonekeratu zomwe sizingatheke ".
Lamulo la Elliott Wave ndilofotokozera mwatsatanetsatane ndi 'njira' momwe magulu a anthu amaganizira komanso zotsatira zake. EWP ikuwulula kuti kuchuluka kwama psychology kumapangitsa kusunthika ndikuyembekeza ndikubwerera motsatira magwiridwe achilengedwe, potero kumapanga njira zowoneka bwino. Lamulo la Elliott Wave limawoneka bwino 'likugwira ntchito' m'misika yazachuma, pomwe kusintha kwa malingaliro azamalonda kumalembedwa ngati mayendedwe amitengo. Ngati mungathe kuzindikira mitengo yobwerezabwereza ndikuwona komwe mtengo uli munjira zobwerezabwereza zomwe mungayembekezere (ndi zotheka) komwe mtengo ukupita.
EWP, komabe, ndichizolowezi chochita mwina. Elliottician ndi munthu amene amatha kudziwa momwe misika ilili ndikuyembekezera zomwe angachite posankha malowa. Podziwa mawonekedwe ake, mudziwa zomwe misika ikuyenera kuchita kenako komanso zomwe sangachite pambuyo pake. Pogwiritsira ntchito EWP ndizotheka kuzindikira zosunthika zabwino kwambiri zomwe zili pachiwopsezo chochepa kwambiri.
Mumtengo wamsika wamtengo wapatali wa Elliott umasinthasintha pakati pazomwe zimapangitsa kuti munthu azichita zinthu mopupuluma komanso gawo lokonzanso pamiyeso yonse yazomwe zikuchitika. Zokakamira zimagawika m'magulu asanu otsika, osinthana pakati pa cholinga ndi kukonza, mafunde 5, 1, ndi 3 ndi zikoka, ndipo mafunde 5 ndi 2 ndizoyenda pang'ono kwamafunde 4 ndi 1. Mafunde owongolera amagawika 3 mafunde ang'onoang'ono kuyambira ndi mafunde asanu othamangitsanso, kubwereranso, komanso chidwi china. M'misika yamtundu wa chimbalangondo, zomwe zimachitika kwambiri ndizotsika, chifukwa chake mawonekedwe amasinthidwa, mafunde asanu pansi ndi atatu mmwamba. Mafunde oyenda nthawi zonse amayenda ndi izi, pomwe mafunde amawongolera.
MAFUKU
Zisanu Wave Wave; Zochitika Zazikulu
Wave 1:
Wave imodzi ikhoza kukhala yovuta kuzindikira pakuyamba kwake. Pamene funde loyamba la msika watsopano wamphongo likuyamba nkhani zoyipa nthawi zambiri zimakhala zoyipa. Mchitidwe wakale ungagwirebe ntchito. Kafukufuku wamalingaliro ndi otsika. Voliyumu imatha kukwera pamene mitengo ikukwera, koma osati malire okwanira kuwachenjeza akatswiri.
Wave 2:
Wave awiri amawongolera funde limodzi, koma samapitilira pomwe amayamba kuwomba imodzi. Mtengo ukamabwezeretsanso malingaliro am'mbuyomu, otsika akumangika, zikwangwani zabwino zimawonekera kwa iwo omwe akuyang'ana. Voliyumu iyenera kukhala yocheperako panthawi yamafunde awiri kuposa nthawi yoyamba, mitengo nthawi zambiri siyipitilira 61.8% ya Fibonacci ya phindu lomwe ikuyenda limodzi, mtengo uyenera kugwera m'mitundu itatu.
Wave 3:
Wave atatu nthawi zambiri ndiye funde lalikulu kwambiri komanso lamphamvu kwambiri pamachitidwe. Nkhaniyi ndiyabwino tsopano. Mtengo ukukwera mwachangu, zosintha zilizonse ndizosakhalitsa komanso zosaya. Pomwe nkhani zitatu zoyambira mwina zikadali zopanda pake, ndipo osewera ambiri pamsika amakhalabe olakwika; koma pakatikati pa mafunde atatu, "khamu" nthawi zambiri limagwirizana ndi zomwe zikuchitika.
Wave 4:
Wave anayi nthawi zambiri amawongolera. Mtengo umatha kusunthira chammbali kwakanthawi, ndipo mafunde anayi amabwereranso osachepera 38.2% Fibonacci yamafunde atatu. Voliyumu ili pansipa ndi yoweyula atatu. Awa akhoza kukhala malo abwino kugula zotsalira, mafunde achinayi nthawi zambiri amakhala okhumudwitsa chifukwa chakuchepa kwawo pakupita patsogolo.
Wave 5:
Wave asanu ndiye mwendo womaliza wolowera kuzowoneka bwino. Nkhani zake ndizabwino konse ndipo aliyense ali ndi chiyembekezo. Apa ndipamene amalonda ambiri pamapeto pake amaguliratu asanafike. Voliyumu nthawi zambiri imakhala yocheperako pamafunde asanu kuposa mafunde atatu, ndipo zizindikiritso zambiri zowoneka bwino zitha kuwonetsa kusiyanasiyana (mtengo umafika pamtunda watsopano, koma zizindikilozo sizifika pachimake).
Zitatu Wave Wave; Njira Yowongolera
Wave A:
Zowongolera ndizovuta kuzizindikira kuposa zomwe mungachite. Mu funde A pamsika wa chimbalangondo, nkhani zake ndizabwino. Zizindikiro zaukadaulo zomwe zimatsagana ndi funde A zimaphatikizapo kuchuluka kwakukula.
Wave B:
Mtengo umabwereranso pamwambapa ambiri amawona izi ngati kuyambiranso kwa msika wa ng'ombe pano. Omwe amadziwa bwino zaukadaulo wakale amatha kuwona kuti mutuwo ndi phewa lamanja lamutu ndikusintha kwamapewa. Voliyumu ya funde B iyenera kukhala yotsika poyerekeza ndi yoweyula A. Zikhazikiko mwina sizikukhalanso bwino, mwina sizinasinthebe.
Wave C:
Mtengo umatsika mopupuluma m'mafunde asanu. Voliyumu imanyamula, ndipo pofika gawo lachitatu la funde C msika wa chimbalangondo umakhazikika. Wave C ndi wamkulu kukula ngati funde A.
MALAMULO EWP
Pali malamulo atatu ofunikira kutanthauzira Elliott Wave. Pali malangizo ambiri, koma pali malamulo atatu okha 'olimba komanso achangu' osasweka. Malangizo amatanthauziridwa. Malamulowa amangogwira ntchito pazotsatira za 5 wave. Zowongolera, zomwe ndizovuta kwambiri, zimapatsidwa mwayi pomasulira.
malamulo
Chigamulo 1: Wave 2 sichingabwezeretse zoposa 100% ya Wave 1.
Chigamulo 2: Wave 3 siyingakhale yayifupi kwambiri mwa mafunde atatu othamangitsayo.
Chigamulo 3: Wave 4 sangakwaniritse Wave 1.
ZOKHUDZA
- Malangizo 1: Pamene Wave 3 ndiye funde lalitali kwambiri, Wave 5 amakhala ofanana ndi Wave 1.
- Malangizo 2: Mafomu a Wave 2 ndi Wave 4 asintha. Ngati Wave 2 ikukonzekera kwakuthwa, Wave 4 idzakhala kukonzanso mosabisa. Ngati Wave 2 ili yopanda pake, Wave 4 idzakhala yakuthwa.
- Malangizo 3: Pambuyo pakupita kwamphamvu kwa mafunde a 5, kukonza (abc) kumatha kumapeto kwa Wave 4 low.
Mwa akatswiri pamsika, kusanthula kwamafunde kumavomerezedwa ngati gawo limodzi la malonda awo. EWP ili pamayeso omwe akatswiri amafufuza kuti adziwe kuti Chartered Market Technician (CMT), kuvomerezeka kwa akatswiri komwe kumapangidwa ndi Market Technicians Association (MTA).
Robin Wilkin, Ex-Global Head of FX and Commodity technical Strategy ku JPMorgan Chase; "mfundo ya Elliott Wave imapereka mwayi wazomwe angalowe mu msika wina ndi komwe angatulukire, kaya phindu kapena kutayika."
Jordan Kotick, Mutu Wadziko Lonse Wamakono pa Barclays Capital komanso Purezidenti wakale wa Market Technicians Association; "Kupeza kwa EWP kunali patsogolo pa nthawi yake. M'malo mwake, mzaka khumi kapena ziwiri zapitazi, ophunzira ambiri odziwika adalandira lingaliro la Elliott ndipo akhala akulimbikitsa mwankhanza kukhalapo kwa anthu omwe amapezeka m'misika yazachuma."
A Paul Tudor Jones, omwe amagulitsa mabiliyoni ambiri, amatcha zomwe Prechter ndi Frost adalemba pa Elliott kuti ndi amodzi mwa "Mabaibulo anayi a bizinesi."
Zotsutsa
Chikhulupiriro choti misika imawonekera m'njira zomwe zimadziwika kwenikweni chimatsutsana ndi malingaliro olondola pamsika, omwe amati mitengo singathe kunenedweratu kuchokera pamisika yamsika monga kusuntha magawo ndi kuchuluka. Mwa kulingalira uku, ngati kulosera kopambana pamsika kukadakhala kotheka, ndalama zimatha kugula (kapena kugulitsa) njirayi ikaneneratu zakukwera kwamitengo (kapena kutsika), mpaka mitengoyo ikakwera (kapena kugwa) nthawi yomweyo, motero kuwononga phindu ndi mphamvu yolosera zamtsogolo njira. M'misika yogulitsa bwino, kudziwa za Elliott Wave Principle pakati pa amalonda kumatha kubweretsa kusowa kwa njira zomwe amayesa kuyembekezera, kupereka njirayo, ndi mitundu yonse ya kusanthula kwaukadaulo, yopanda ntchito.
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