Epulo 10 • Ndemanga za Msika • 3300 Views • Comments Off Pa Oil Oil and Speculators Kukonzekera Kusintha Kwachuma
Chaka chapitacho kapena chapitacho, pamene abizinesi ndi akatswiri azachuma ankanena kuti mwina tikukumana ndi mitengo yamafuta ya $ 100.00, aliyense adapukusa mitu ndikuseka. Mafuta otsimikizika adafika mpaka $ 100.00 nthawi ndi nthawi koma adagwa mwachangu. Pomwe dziko lapansi likucheperachepera, kufuna kugwa, kuwonongedwa kwa ogula, kupanga kugwa, ngati chuma ndi chuma chikukwaniritsidwa, mtengo wamafuta uyenera kutsika.
Izi zinali zisanachitike pamene ofufuzawo adatha kusiyanitsa kupezeka ndi kufunikira ndikudzipangira okha mitengo yomwe ikukwera mitengo. Pamapeto pake panafika Kasupe Wachiarabu, wokhala ndi mavuto azandale, makamaka ku Middle East, kukwera mitengo ikuluikulu. Zachinyengo zidakulira, makamaka ndi Libya, koma osunga ndalama ndi olosera mwakachetechete, adakweza mitengoyo panthawi yamavuto. Vutoli litachepa, mitengo sinatero.
Ngakhale ndi zitsimikiziro zochokera kumayiko a OPEC kuti zoperekazo zitha kupezeka, ofufuza adagwiritsa ntchito chiletso cha Irani kuti agule mitengo. Kuda nkhawa tsopano kukukwera pamafuta, chifukwa mtengo wamtengo wa Brent crude, mafuta owerengera ku London, wabwerera mgulu la $ 120 m'miyezi yaposachedwa. Ngakhale zili zamanyazi kwambiri $ 147 zomwe zidalembedwa mchaka cha 2008, zidakali zokwanira kukweza nsidze.
Kafukufuku watsopano wa akatswiri a Credit Suisse, mokondwera wotchedwa Kodi Tiyenera Kukhala Odandaula Motani? amatchula:
Pamene mtengo wamafuta a Brent wakwera, pazifukwa zomveka mtengo wamafuta watsutsa Greece ngati mchira womwe umakhala pachiwopsezo cha misika yazachuma
Maganizo ambiri ndikuti mtengo wamafuta ukuyendetsedwa ndi nkhani yomwe ikuperekedwa pakadali pano, makamaka zosokoneza zomwe zimatuluka ku Iran pomwe zikulimbana ndi azungu pa pulogalamu yake ya zida za nyukiliya. Gulu la Credit Suisse likuganiza kuti ngakhale Iran ikugwira nawo gawo, ndizochepera mtengo kuposa momwe amaganizira, ponena kuti kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta kumakhudzanso zofunikira pamsika.
Kumbali yakufunidwa, misika yomwe ikubwera ikukhala yolimba ndipo chuma chakumadzulo chakumadzulo chikuwoneka kuti chikutha.
Pakadali pano, zaka ziwiri zapitazi makampani adatsitsa zomwe zinali zazikulu zamafuta, pomwe kukula kwa mafuta sikunayambike mwamphamvu mchaka cha 2012, ngakhale Libya idayambiranso kutumiza mafuta kunja chifukwa cha chipwirikiti chomwe chidawonedwa chaka chatha.
Mwachidule, palibe mafuta ochuluka omwe amapezeka mosavuta kumsika kuti apereke chosokoneza kuti apereke. Mantha ndikuti mitengo yamafuta ingakwere ngati pangakhale kusokonekera kwina kapena zopereka kuchokera ku Iran zatsika pang'ono pomangika ziletso.
Ngati ndi choncho, chingachitike ndi chiyani? Mtengo wamtengo wapatali wamafuta umachedwetsa kukula, chifukwa zimapangitsa mtengo wochita bizinesi komanso moyo watsiku ndi tsiku kukwera m'makampani onse ndi ogula - mutha kuziwona ngati msonkho wowonjezera womwe umaperekedwa pa ntchito zawo. Ku US, kukwera kulikonse kwa 1 cent pampope yamafuta kumawonjezera ndalama zopitilira $ 1bn pamalipiro onse a mabanja aku US, poganiza kuti samachepetsa kuyendetsa kwawo.
Mphamvu yama inflation imatha kukhala yamphamvu kwambiri kwakuti mtengo wokwera wamafuta m'nthawi yayitali ungatsimikizire kuti ndiwosokonekera, monga zomwe zimakhudza kukula kwachuma.
Inde, mayiko ndi makampani ena amapindula ndi kukwera mitengo kwa zinthu, chifukwa amasangalala ndi ndalama zambiri. Vuto ndiloti mayiko omwe angapindule nawo akhala akuchulukirachulukira. Awa ndi nyumba zamagetsi zomwe zikubwera kumene monga Saudi Arabia, Brazil ndi zina zotero, ngakhale Canada ndi Australia ndizomwe zili kumayiko akumadzulo kwa lamuloli. Alibe mwayi wochulukirapo ndipo ambiri akugwiritsa ntchito zida zamagetsi monga chiwongola dzanja chambiri kuti kukula kukuyenda bwino.
Pakadali pano, kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta kudzawakhudza kwambiri ogula m'maiko osaukawa, monga Japan ndi US.
Mwanjira yosavuta - ikafika posachedwa, kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta kumatha kupweteka kuposa momwe zimayenera kukhalira. Mphindi zamsonkhano womaliza wa Federal Reserve FOMC zidayika nsikidzi zagolidi sabata yatha. Adanenanso kuti kuchepetsedwa kowonjezereka kungachitike pokhapokha kukwera kwachuma kwa US kungachepe kapena kukwera kwamitengo kukatsika pansi pa 2pc. Dola linadzuka ndipo golide adagwa.
Izi zikutanthauza kuti chiyembekezo cha QE3, chomwe chingakhale chowonjezera pamtengo wagolide, tsopano chatsika. Ndemangazi zikuwoneka kuti zikutsutsana ndi zomwe a Ben Bernanke, Purezidenti wa Fed, adanena m'mawu omwe adalankhula milungu iwiri yapitayo, yomwe msika udawona kuti ukukulitsa mwayi wa QE3.
Apanso, osunga ndalama komanso azachuma akuyang'ana ku banki yayikulu komanso kuchepetsa ndalama zopezera phindu, zomwe siziyambitsa chifukwa chomwe Fed ikuperekera QE3. Ambiri mwa awa osunga ndalama ndi osinthira akukhala cholepheretsa kuchira; olingalirawa ayamba kukhala zigawenga zachuma.
mafuta osakanizafomuIran
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Mafuta Osawonongeka ndi Otsatsa Maofesi Akuthandizira Kukhazikitsa Zosintha Zachuma
Epulo 10 • Ndemanga za Msika • 3300 Views • Comments Off Pa Oil Oil and Speculators Kukonzekera Kusintha Kwachuma
Chaka chapitacho kapena chapitacho, pamene abizinesi ndi akatswiri azachuma ankanena kuti mwina tikukumana ndi mitengo yamafuta ya $ 100.00, aliyense adapukusa mitu ndikuseka. Mafuta otsimikizika adafika mpaka $ 100.00 nthawi ndi nthawi koma adagwa mwachangu. Pomwe dziko lapansi likucheperachepera, kufuna kugwa, kuwonongedwa kwa ogula, kupanga kugwa, ngati chuma ndi chuma chikukwaniritsidwa, mtengo wamafuta uyenera kutsika.
Izi zinali zisanachitike pamene ofufuzawo adatha kusiyanitsa kupezeka ndi kufunikira ndikudzipangira okha mitengo yomwe ikukwera mitengo. Pamapeto pake panafika Kasupe Wachiarabu, wokhala ndi mavuto azandale, makamaka ku Middle East, kukwera mitengo ikuluikulu. Zachinyengo zidakulira, makamaka ndi Libya, koma osunga ndalama ndi olosera mwakachetechete, adakweza mitengoyo panthawi yamavuto. Vutoli litachepa, mitengo sinatero.
Ngakhale ndi zitsimikiziro zochokera kumayiko a OPEC kuti zoperekazo zitha kupezeka, ofufuza adagwiritsa ntchito chiletso cha Irani kuti agule mitengo. Kuda nkhawa tsopano kukukwera pamafuta, chifukwa mtengo wamtengo wa Brent crude, mafuta owerengera ku London, wabwerera mgulu la $ 120 m'miyezi yaposachedwa. Ngakhale zili zamanyazi kwambiri $ 147 zomwe zidalembedwa mchaka cha 2008, zidakali zokwanira kukweza nsidze.
Kafukufuku watsopano wa akatswiri a Credit Suisse, mokondwera wotchedwa Kodi Tiyenera Kukhala Odandaula Motani? amatchula:
Pamene mtengo wamafuta a Brent wakwera, pazifukwa zomveka mtengo wamafuta watsutsa Greece ngati mchira womwe umakhala pachiwopsezo cha misika yazachuma
Maganizo ambiri ndikuti mtengo wamafuta ukuyendetsedwa ndi nkhani yomwe ikuperekedwa pakadali pano, makamaka zosokoneza zomwe zimatuluka ku Iran pomwe zikulimbana ndi azungu pa pulogalamu yake ya zida za nyukiliya. Gulu la Credit Suisse likuganiza kuti ngakhale Iran ikugwira nawo gawo, ndizochepera mtengo kuposa momwe amaganizira, ponena kuti kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta kumakhudzanso zofunikira pamsika.
Kumbali yakufunidwa, misika yomwe ikubwera ikukhala yolimba ndipo chuma chakumadzulo chakumadzulo chikuwoneka kuti chikutha.
Pakadali pano, zaka ziwiri zapitazi makampani adatsitsa zomwe zinali zazikulu zamafuta, pomwe kukula kwa mafuta sikunayambike mwamphamvu mchaka cha 2012, ngakhale Libya idayambiranso kutumiza mafuta kunja chifukwa cha chipwirikiti chomwe chidawonedwa chaka chatha.
Mwachidule, palibe mafuta ochuluka omwe amapezeka mosavuta kumsika kuti apereke chosokoneza kuti apereke. Mantha ndikuti mitengo yamafuta ingakwere ngati pangakhale kusokonekera kwina kapena zopereka kuchokera ku Iran zatsika pang'ono pomangika ziletso.
Ngati ndi choncho, chingachitike ndi chiyani? Mtengo wamtengo wapatali wamafuta umachedwetsa kukula, chifukwa zimapangitsa mtengo wochita bizinesi komanso moyo watsiku ndi tsiku kukwera m'makampani onse ndi ogula - mutha kuziwona ngati msonkho wowonjezera womwe umaperekedwa pa ntchito zawo. Ku US, kukwera kulikonse kwa 1 cent pampope yamafuta kumawonjezera ndalama zopitilira $ 1bn pamalipiro onse a mabanja aku US, poganiza kuti samachepetsa kuyendetsa kwawo.
Mphamvu yama inflation imatha kukhala yamphamvu kwambiri kwakuti mtengo wokwera wamafuta m'nthawi yayitali ungatsimikizire kuti ndiwosokonekera, monga zomwe zimakhudza kukula kwachuma.
Inde, mayiko ndi makampani ena amapindula ndi kukwera mitengo kwa zinthu, chifukwa amasangalala ndi ndalama zambiri. Vuto ndiloti mayiko omwe angapindule nawo akhala akuchulukirachulukira. Awa ndi nyumba zamagetsi zomwe zikubwera kumene monga Saudi Arabia, Brazil ndi zina zotero, ngakhale Canada ndi Australia ndizomwe zili kumayiko akumadzulo kwa lamuloli. Alibe mwayi wochulukirapo ndipo ambiri akugwiritsa ntchito zida zamagetsi monga chiwongola dzanja chambiri kuti kukula kukuyenda bwino.
Pakadali pano, kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta kudzawakhudza kwambiri ogula m'maiko osaukawa, monga Japan ndi US.
Mwanjira yosavuta - ikafika posachedwa, kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta kumatha kupweteka kuposa momwe zimayenera kukhalira. Mphindi zamsonkhano womaliza wa Federal Reserve FOMC zidayika nsikidzi zagolidi sabata yatha. Adanenanso kuti kuchepetsedwa kowonjezereka kungachitike pokhapokha kukwera kwachuma kwa US kungachepe kapena kukwera kwamitengo kukatsika pansi pa 2pc. Dola linadzuka ndipo golide adagwa.
Izi zikutanthauza kuti chiyembekezo cha QE3, chomwe chingakhale chowonjezera pamtengo wagolide, tsopano chatsika. Ndemangazi zikuwoneka kuti zikutsutsana ndi zomwe a Ben Bernanke, Purezidenti wa Fed, adanena m'mawu omwe adalankhula milungu iwiri yapitayo, yomwe msika udawona kuti ukukulitsa mwayi wa QE3.
Apanso, osunga ndalama komanso azachuma akuyang'ana ku banki yayikulu komanso kuchepetsa ndalama zopezera phindu, zomwe siziyambitsa chifukwa chomwe Fed ikuperekera QE3. Ambiri mwa awa osunga ndalama ndi osinthira akukhala cholepheretsa kuchira; olingalirawa ayamba kukhala zigawenga zachuma.
mafuta osakanizafomuIran
« Kutsimikizika Kusaka Kuzizwitsa Kwa Otsutsa Golide China, Crude Ndipo GCC »