Mawonedwe Ofunika Kwambiri pa Sabata la Forex ndi Fed, BoE, ndi ECB Policy Misonkhano
Mu gawo Lachisanu lapitali, US PCE deflators ndi deta yogwiritsira ntchito ndalama zinali pafupi ndi mgwirizano, monga momwe zinkayembekezeredwa pambuyo pa kutulutsidwa kwa Q4 GDP kumayambiriro kwa sabata. Ziwerengero zomaliza kuchokera ku chidaliro cha ogula ku University Michigan zikuwonetsa kuwongolera kokwera kwa ziyembekezo zakukwera kwamitengo kwa chaka chimodzi (3.9% kuchokera ku 4%) ndi zaka zisanu mpaka khumi (2.9% kuchokera ku 3%).
Kuganiza zamsika / kuyikanso kwina kunakhalabe chimodzimodzi kupita sabata lofunika kwambiri ndi misonkhano ya mfundo za Fed, BoE, ndi ECB. Mzere wokhotakhota waku US udasinthidwa ndi +1.9 basis points (2-yr) ndi -1.9 basis points (zaka 30). Mimba yopindikayo idachita mochepera mapiko ake ndi mfundo 2.8, zokolola zazaka 10 zidafalikira mpaka 2, pomwe Italy idachita mochepera (+4 maziko). EUR/USD imagwira mkati mwanthawi yochepa kwambiri ya sabata (1.084-1.092) yokhala ndi kutseka kwa sabata kwa 1.0868. Sabata yatha, awiriwa adalephera kudutsa kukana kwa 1.0942 (50% kubwereranso pakutsika kuchokera ku 2021-2022).
Sabata ino idzakhala mayeso a litmus a EUR/GBP, omwe adatseka pa 0.8774. Komabe, malo otsutsa ozungulira 0.88 adzayesedwa sabata ino, monga EUR/USD. Malo apamwamba a 0.88 kukana adachitika kumayambiriro kwa mwezi uno, koma zomveka ndizofanana ndi EUR / USD: mayesero enieni adzatsatira sabata ino. Misika yaku US ndi Europe idatseka Lachisanu ndikupindula pang'ono, pomwe Nasdaq inali ina (+ 1%).
Misika yaku China ikabwerera kuchokera ku Lunar New Holiday, imakhala yosalala. Core bond ndi EUR/USD sizikugulitsanso. Pambuyo pa gulu la akatswiri adalimbikitsa banki yayikulu ndi boma kuti akonzenso ndondomeko yawo yogwirizana kuti apangitse kukwera kwa inflation kwa nthawi yayitali, yen yalimbitsa (USD / JPY 129.50). Pamsonkhanowu, m'modzi mwa mamembalawo, yemwenso akuganiziridwa kuti akhale wachiwiri kwa kazembe wa BoJ ku Spring, adafotokoza kuti ndondomeko yazandalama iyenera kuganiziridwanso mozama ntchito zikadzabweretsa zokolola komanso misika yama bond itakhazikika. Chifukwa cha gawoli, a BoJ akukakamizidwanso kuti athetse pulogalamu yake yolimbikitsira ndalama zaka khumi.
Inali sabata yatha sabata yatha, popanda zoyambitsa zazikulu komanso zotsika mtengo, koma sabata ino zikhala zosiyana. FOMC, zisankho zazikulu zamabanki apakati, ndi malipoti ambiri azachuma zitha kuyendetsa msika.
Pakalipano, nkhani ya "kutsetsereka kofewa" imayang'anira zochitikazo ndi kutsika kwa mitengo yamtengo wapatali komanso msika wogwira ntchito wokhazikika, zomwe zachititsa kuti chuma chiwonongeke.
Lachiwiri:
Mu Q4, Employment Cost Index (ECI) ikuyembekezeka kuchepa kuchokera ku 1.2% mu Q3 mpaka 1.1%. Akuluakulu a Fed ndi misika akuyang'ana kukwera kwa malipiro, koma monga momwe deta inasonyezera kukula kwa malipiro m'miyezi yapitayi, chiwopsezo cha mtengo wa malipiro chinachepa. Chifukwa msika wogwira ntchito ndiye mutu waukulu womwe ukudetsa nkhawa pakadali pano, index yodalirika ya ogula ku US ndiyoyenera kuyang'ana, yomwe imagwirizana ndi kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe alibe ntchito ndipo amakonda kulosera za kusintha kwa ntchito pakangopita miyezi ingapo.
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