Kodi Tikupusitsidwa Ndi Kusakhazikika Kwa Msika Wamtsogolo Pomwe Zisokonezo Zilipo?
Monga amalonda am'mbuyomu tili okonzeka kupanga zisankho zamalonda ndipo pamapeto pake timachita malonda athu akutsogolo potengera mfundo zazikulu ziwiri, kusanthula kofunikira komanso ukadaulo. Mfundo yoyamba, kusanthula kwakukulu, ndi (pamaso pake) molunjika. FA imafuna kuganiza mozama patadutsa nthawi yayitali; nkhani zikafika povuta kwambiri pankhani yamavuto aku Eurozone titha kuyembekeza kuti yuro igwera motsutsana ndi ndalama zomwe zimawerengedwa kuti ndi 'zotetezeka' monga: yen, dollar, Swissy ndi Loonie. Zomwe zimaperekedwa kudzera munjira yolengezera mfundo kapena kutulutsidwa kwa data pamapeto pake zimapezeka pamakalata athu. Chifukwa cha zaluso zaluso ndi mapaketi a charting timakhulupirira, kuti tithandizire malonda athu, 'chidziwitsochi' chimafulumira kwambiri. Kulumikizana kwaumunthu ndi malingaliro okhudza ndalama zowonekera ndalama zina amawonetsedwa nthawi yomweyo. Komabe, kutulutsa kwakanema nthawi zambiri kumatha kuyendetsa bwaloli ndikupereka pamapulatifomu athu.
Ambiri aife tikazindikira malonda a FX titha kusokonezedwa ndi malingaliro okakamiza, makamaka ngati malingaliro awa asonkhanitsa moss pamene akugubuduza phirilo osatsutsidwa pamapeto pake ndikukwiriridwa m'nkhalango yanthano. Limodzi lalingaliro ili ndikuti "zisonyezo sizigwira ntchito" zonena zomwe zimabwerezedwa nthawi zambiri pamabwalo ogulitsa. Ngakhale ndizosangalatsa kuchita nawo zotsika, potengera kuyamikiridwa kwa akatswiri anzeru zamasamu omwe adapanga zisonyezozo, kuti afunse mwaulemu ziyeneretso zomwe mamembala amsonkhanowo akuyenera kutsutsa ukatswiriwu, kungakhale koyenera kufunsa 'umboni' Zizindikiro sizigwira ntchito. Nassim Taleb nthawi ina adati zomwe amakonda kuchita ndi;
Kuseketsa anthu omwe amadziona kuti ndi ofunika kwambiri komanso omwe alibe chidziwitso nthawi zina amati: 'Sindikudziwa ..
Tiyeni tiganizire za Nassim Taleb, Henri Poincaré, mwachisawawa, mwina, Edward Lorenz ndi momwe agulugufe amathandizira komanso momwe amagwirizanirana ndi malonda. Chodziwikiratu ndi mawu amodzi olosera modabwitsa ochokera kwa Taleb pomwe akunena kuti mitengo yamitengo imatsimikiziridwa mwa "njira zododometsa" ndi omwe amagwiritsa ntchito, osati ndi mtundu, ndipo zitsanzozo "zimaphunzitsa mbalame momwe zingawulukire".
Ndapereka zambiri munkhaniyi pazokhudza Taleb ndi chipwirikiti, mukamawerenga ziziwonekeratu kulumikizana pakati pamitu iwiriyi ndi m'mene zimayendera limodzi ndi malonda, makamaka pofufuza ndikusanthula kagwiritsidwe ntchito ndi kuvomerezeka kwa mitundu yosiyanasiyana yomwe timadalira kwambiri. Tikukhulupirira kuti izi zimadzetsa chidwi ndipo zimatsogolera owerenga kudera latsopano komanso lokulirapo la chidziwitso. Zingasokoneze chisankho chathu chachikulu, sicholinga chake. Komabe, kuyesa zikhulupiriro zathu zamalonda, makamaka 'zosakaniza' zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zinthu zitiyendere bwino monga kusanthula kwofunikira komanso ukadaulo, ikhoza kukhala masewera olimbitsa thupi opindulitsa kwambiri.
Nassim Taleb
Nassim Taleb ndi waku Lebanese waku America yemwe amayang'ana kwambiri zovuta za kusakhazikika komanso kuthekera. Buku lake la The Black Swan la 2007 lidafotokozedwa pakuwunikiridwa ndi Sunday Times ngati limodzi mwamabuku khumi ndi awiri ofunikira kwambiri kuyambira Nkhondo Yadziko II. Ndi mlembi wogulitsa kwambiri ndipo wakhala pulofesa m'mayunivesite angapo, pakadali pano ku Polytechnic Institute of New York University ndi Oxford University. Iye ndi katswiri wa zachuma cha masamu. Taleb wakhala manejala wa hedge fund, wogulitsa ku Wall Street ndipo pakadali pano ndi mlangizi wasayansi ku Universa Investments ndi International Monetary Fund.
Adadzudzula njira zakuwongolera pachiwopsezo zomwe makampani azachuma amagwiritsa ntchito ndikuchenjeza za zovuta zachuma. Amalimbikitsa gulu lomwe amalitcha kuti "black swan robust", kutanthauza gulu lomwe lingathe kupirira zochitika zovuta kuneneratu. Amakonda "kusinkhasinkha" ngati njira yodziwira asayansi, yomwe amatanthauza kuyesera ndikusonkhanitsa zowona m'malo mofufuza kotsika pamwamba.
Akuyitanitsa kuchotsedwa kwa Mphotho ya Chikumbutso cha Nobel mu Economics, ponena kuti kuwonongeka kwa malingaliro azachuma kungakhale kowopsa. Amatsutsa chidziwitso chotsika kwambiri ngati chinyengo chamaphunziro ndipo amakhulupirira kuti mapangidwe amitengo amatsata dongosolo lachilengedwe. Pamodzi ndi Espen Gaarder Haug, Taleb akutsimikizira kuti mitengo yamitengo imatsimikiziridwa mwa "njira zododometsa" ndi omwe amagwiritsa ntchito, osati ndi mtundu, ndipo zitsanzozo "zimaphunzitsa mbalame momwe zingawulukire". Pablo Triana adasanthula mutuwu ponena za Haug ndi Taleb ndipo akuti mwina Taleb ndikulondola kulimbikitsa kuti mabanki azitengedwa ngati zinthu zoletsedwa kutenga zoopsa zomwe zitha kupha, pomwe ma hedge fund ndi mabungwe ena osalamulirika akuyenera kuchita zomwe akufuna.
Kupusitsidwa ndi Randomness
Buku loyambirira laukadaulo la Taleb, lotsogozedwa ndi Randomness, lonena za kunyalanyaza gawo lazomwe zimachitika mmoyo, lidasindikizidwa mchaka cha 2001. Bukuli lidasankhidwa ndi Fortune ngati imodzi mwa mabuku 75 "Opambana Kwambiri Nthawi Zonse." Dzina la bukuli, Fooled by Randomness, lasandulikanso chifanizo cha Chingerezi chomwe chimafotokozedwa pomwe wina awona patali pomwe pamangokhala phokoso lokha.
Taleb amapereka lingaliro loti anthu amakono nthawi zambiri samadziwa zakupezeka kwachisawawa. Amakonda kufotokoza zotsatira zosasintha monga zosasintha. Anthu:
zovuta kwambiri, mwachitsanzo, zimawona njovu m'mitambo m'malo momvetsetsa kuti ndi mitambo yopangidwa mosasintha yomwe imawoneka ngati njovu (kapena china chilichonse); amakonda kuona dziko ngati lofotokozedwa bwino kwambiri kuposa momwe lilili. Chifukwa chake amafunafuna mafotokozedwe ngakhale palibe.
Malingaliro ena olakwika omwe amapezeka omwe akukambidwa ndi awa: Kukonda kupulumuka. Timawona opambana ndikuyesera "kuphunzira" kwa iwo, ndikuiwala kuchuluka kwakukulu kwa otayika.
Kugawa konyamula. Zochitika zambiri zenizeni pamoyo sizobetcherana 50:50 monga kuponyera ndalama, koma zimakhala ndi magawo osiyanasiyana achilendo komanso osagwirizana ndi ena. Chitsanzo cha izi ndi kubetcha 99: 1 momwe mumapambana nthawi zonse, koma mukataya, mumataya ndalama zanu zonse. Anthu akhoza kupusitsidwa mosavuta ndi mawu ngati "Ndapambana kubetcha uku maulendo 50". Malinga ndi Taleb: "Ogulitsa zosankha, akuti, idyani ngati nkhuku ndikupita kuchimbudzi ngati njovu", zomwe zikutanthauza kuti, omwe amagulitsa zosankha amatha kupeza ndalama zochepa pogulitsa zosankhazo, koma tsoka likachitika amataya chuma.
Buku lake lachiwiri lopanda ukadaulo, The Black Swan, lokhala ndi zochitika zosayembekezereka, lidasindikizidwa mu 2007. Idagulitsa, kuyambira mu February 2011, pafupifupi makope 3 miliyoni ndipo idakhala milungu 17 pamndandanda wa New York Times Bestseller ndipo idamasuliridwa m'zilankhulo 31 . A Black Swan amadziwika kuti ananeneratu zovuta zamabanki ndi zachuma mu 2008.
Zolemba za Taleb zosagwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo zimasakanizika ndi mbiri yakale (nthawi zambiri yopanda mbiri) komanso nthano zazifupi zanzeru limodzi ndi ndemanga zakale komanso zasayansi. Malonda a mabuku awiri oyamba a Taleb adapeza $ 4 miliyoni pasadakhale buku lotsatira lothana ndi zovuta.
Chiphunzitso cha Chisokonezo
Chiphunzitso cha chisokonezo ndikuphunzira zamphamvu zopanda malire, pomwe zochitika zomwe zimawoneka ngati zosamveka zimadziwikiratu kuchokera pamaganizidwe osavuta. Pankhani yasayansi, liwu loti chisokonezo limakhala ndi tanthauzo losiyana pang'ono ndi momwe limagwiritsidwira ntchito monga kusokonezeka, kusowa dongosolo lililonse. Chisokonezo, ponena za chiphunzitso cha chisokonezo, chimatanthauza kusoweka kwa dongosolo mu dongosolo lomwe komabe limamvera malamulo kapena malamulo ena; Kumvetsetsa kwa chisokonezo ndikofanana ndi kusakhazikika kwamphamvu, vuto lomwe wasayansi wina dzina lake Henri Poincare adachita kumayambiriro kwa zaka za zana la 20 lomwe limatanthawuza kusowa kolosera zam'thupi.
Henri Poincaré
Henri Poincaré anali katswiri wa masamu ndi sayansi ya zakuthambo, adapereka zofunikira zoyambirira zoyambira masamu, kugwiritsa ntchito masamu, ndi makina akumwamba. Anali ndi udindo wopanga lingaliro la Poincaré, limodzi mwamavuto odziwika kwambiri masamu. Pakafukufuku wake wamavuto amthupi atatu, a Poincaré adakhala munthu woyamba kupeza njira zosokoneza zomwe zidakhazikitsa maziko azamabodza amasiku ano. Amadziwikanso kuti ndi m'modzi mwa omwe adayambitsa gawo la topology.
Zigawo zikuluzikulu ziwiri zamalingaliro achisokonezo ndimalingaliro omwe machitidwe, ngakhale atakhala ovuta motani, amadalira dongosolo loyambira, ndikuti machitidwe osavuta kapena ang'ono ndi zochitika zimatha kuyambitsa machitidwe kapena zochitika zovuta kwambiri. Lingaliro lomalizirali limadziwika kuti kudalira kwazinthu zoyambirira, zomwe zidapezeka ndi a Edward Lorenz (omwe amadziwika kuti ndiomwe adayesa kuyambitsa chisokonezo) koyambirira kwa 1960.
Edward lorenz
Lorenz, katswiri wazanyengo, anali kugwiritsa ntchito ma kompyuta molingana ndi malingaliro ndi kulosera nyengo. Atathamanga motsatizana, adaganiza zofanananso. Lorenz adatumizanso nambala kuchokera pa zomwe adasindikiza, adatenga theka ndikutsatira, ndikuzisiya kuti ziziyenda. Zomwe adapeza pakubwerera kwake zinali, mosiyana ndi zomwe amayembekezera, zotsatirazi zinali zosiyana kwambiri ndi zomwe adachita poyamba. Lorenz anali, kwenikweni, sanalowe nambala yomweyo, .506127, koma chiwerengerochi .506. Malinga ndi zomwe asayansi amayembekezera panthawiyo, zotsatirazi zikuyenera kuti zidasiyana pang'ono ndi zoyeserera zoyambirira, chifukwa kuyeza kwa madera atatu amawerengedwa kuti ndikolondola. Chifukwa ziwerengero ziwirizi zimawerengedwa kuti ndizofanana, zotsatira zake ziyenera kuti zidafanana.
Popeza kuyesedwa mobwerezabwereza kunatsimikizira mosiyana, Lorenz adazindikira kuti kusiyana kocheperako pamikhalidwe yoyambirira yoposa momwe munthu angayesere kunapangitsa kuneneratu za zotsatira zam'mbuyo kapena zamtsogolo zosatheka, lingaliro lomwe limaphwanya misonkhano yayikulu ya sayansi. Monga wasayansi wodziwika Richard Feynman adanenanso, "Akatswiri a sayansi ya zakuthambo amakonda kuganiza kuti zonse zomwe muyenera kuchita ndikunena, izi ndi zomwe zachitika, tsopano chotsatira nchiyani?"
Malamulo a Newtonian a fizikiki ndi okhazikika kwathunthu: amaganiza kuti, mwamaganizidwe, kuyerekezera kotheka ndikotheka, ndikuti muyeso wolondola wa chikhalidwe chilichonse upereka kulosera kwatsatanetsatane wazomwe zidachitika m'mbuyomu kapena mtsogolo. Lingaliro linali loti, mwa lingaliro, osachepera, zinali zotheka kufotokozera bwino za machitidwe amthupi lililonse ngati miyezo itha kukhala yolondola kwambiri, ndikuti miyezo yoyambirira inali yolondola kwambiri, kuneneratu.
Poincare adazindikira kuti m'makina ena azakuthambo (omwe amakhala matupi atatu kapena kupitilira apo), zolakwitsa zazing'ono kwambiri poyesa koyambirira zimatha kubweretsa kusayembekezereka kwakukulu, mosiyana kwambiri ndi zomwe zikuyembekezeka masamu. Magawo awiri kapena kupitilira muyeso amiyeso yoyambira, yomwe malinga ndi fizikisi ya Newtonian imatulutsa zotsatira zofananira, makamaka, nthawi zambiri zimabweretsa zotulukapo zosiyana. Poincare adatsimikizira masamu kuti, ngakhale zoyeserera zoyambirira zitha kupangidwa mozama miliyoni, kuti kusatsimikizika kwa kuneneratu za zotsatira sikunabwerere m'mbuyo molingana ndi kulondola kwa muyeso, koma kudakhalabe kwakukulu. Pokhapokha kuwerengera koyambirira kungafotokozeredwe - zosatheka - kulosera kwamachitidwe ovuta - achisokonezo - sanachite bwino kuposa momwe maulosi adasankhidwira mwachisawawa pazotheka.
Gulugufe Zotsatira
Gulugufe, woyamba kufotokozedwa ndi Lorenz pamsonkhano wa Disembala 1972 wa American Association for the Development of Science ku Washington, DC, akuwonetsa bwino lingaliro lofunikira la chiphunzitso cha chisokonezo. M'nyuzipepala ya 1963 ya New York Academy of Science, a Lorenz adatchulapo za katswiri wazanyengo yemwe sanatchulidwe dzina kuti, ngati chipwirikiticho chinali chowona, kuphimba kamodzi kwamapiko a seagull kungakhale kokwanira kusintha nyengo zonse zamtsogolo padziko lapansi. .
Pofika msonkhano wa 1972, anali atasanthula ndikuwunikiranso lingaliro lake pankhani yake, "Kudziwikiratu: Kodi Mapiko A Mapiko a Gulugufe ku Brazil adanyamuka Tornado ku Texas?" Chitsanzo cha kachitidwe kakang'ono ngati gulugufe yemwe ali ndi udindo wopanga dongosolo lalikulu komanso lakutali ngati namondwe ku Texas akuwonetsa kuthekera kolosera zamachitidwe ovuta; ngakhale kuti izi zimatsimikiziridwa ndi momwe zinthu ziliri, ndendende momwe zinthu zilili sizingafotokozeredwe mokwanira kulola kuneneratu zakutali.
Ngakhale kuti chisokonezo nthawi zambiri chimaganiziridwa kuti chimangokhala kusakhazikika komanso kusowa kwa dongosolo, ndizolondola kwambiri kuziwona ngati zosasintha zomwe zimadza chifukwa cha machitidwe ovuta komanso kulumikizana pakati pama kachitidwe. Malinga ndi a James Gleick, wolemba "Chipwirikiti: Kupanga Sayansi Yatsopano", chiphunzitso cha chisokonezo ndi;
Kusintha osati kwaukadaulo, monga kusintha kwa laser kapena kusintha kwamakompyuta, koma kusintha kwa malingaliro. Kusintha kumeneku kunayamba ndi malingaliro angapo okhudzana ndi chisokonezo m'chilengedwe: kuchokera kusokonekera kwamadzimadzi, kupita kwamatenda osokonekera, mpaka kukulira kwamtima wamunthu munthawi yakufa. Ikupitilizabe ndi malingaliro ochulukirapo omwe atha kusankhidwa bwino pansi pa rubric ya zovuta.
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