Disembala 30 • Ndemanga za Msika • 4244 Views • Comments Off pa 2011 Sizinali Zakale Zamphesa, Koma Kodi Zozizwitsa Zamphesa Zachulukirachulukira?
Vinyo wamphesa amapangidwa kuchokera ku mphesa zomwe zonse, (kapena makamaka), zimakula ndikukololedwa chaka chimodzi chokha. M'mavinyo ena amatanthauza mtundu, monga ku Port kunali nyumba zanyumba zopanga Port ndikulengeza zaka zawo zabwino kwambiri. Kuchokera pachikhalidwechi, kugwiritsa ntchito wamba (ngakhale sikolondola) kumagwiritsa ntchito mawuwa ku vinyo aliyense yemwe amadziwika kuti ndi wakale kwambiri, kapena wapamwamba kwambiri.
Maiko ambiri amalola mphesa kuphatikiza vinyo osati kuyambira chaka chofotokozedwacho. Ku Chile ndi South Africa, chofunikira ndi 75% yazaka zomwezi. Ku Australia, New Zealand, ndi European Union, ndi 85%. Ku USA ndi 85%, pokhapokha vinyo atasankhidwa ndi AVA momwe zingakhalire 95%. Lamulo la 85% ku United States limagwiranso ntchito chimodzimodzi polowa kunja. Chosiyana ndi vinyo wamphesa ndi vinyo wosapanga mphesa (NV), nthawi zambiri amakhala wosakanizika wazaka ziwiri kapena kupitilira apo. Imeneyi ndi mchitidwe wofala kwa opanga winayo omwe amafunafuna chaka chimodzi pachaka.
Kufunika kwa mphesa, komabe, kumasiyana ndipo kumatsutsana. M'madera ambiri a vinyo nyengo zokula zimakhala zofanana. M'madera owuma kugwiritsa ntchito kuthirira kumathandizira kuti mavitamini apangidwe. Vinyo wa zitsamba zapamwamba kuchokera kwa opanga otchuka amatenga mitengo yokwera kuposa yomwe imachokera kuzipilala zapakati makamaka ngati vinyo amakula msinkhu m'botolo. Vinyo wina amangolembedwa ndi mphesa zaka zopitilira zaka zaposachedwa, kuti akhalebe ndi mbiri yabwino, pomwe mavinyo ambiri amapangidwa kuti akhale oledzera achichepere komanso atsopano
Kufunika kwa mphesa kungakokomeze, wolemba nyuzipepala ya New York Times a Frank J. Prial alengeza kuti tchati chachikale sichikhala chakale;
Opanga winayo padziko lapansi awonetsa kuti tchati chachikale chidatha, opanga vinyo tsopano ali ndi ukadaulo komanso luso lopanga vinyo wabwino komanso wabwino kwambiri mzaka zosadziwika
Roman Weil, wapampando wachiwiri wa Oenonomy Society of the US komanso Pulofesa ku Yunivesite ya Chicago, adayesa lingaliro lomwe anthu omwe amamwa mowa adakumana nalo;
Sangathe kusiyanitsa pakulawa kwa zakumwa vinyo wazaka zomwe adavotera kwambiri ndi zazaka zomwe zidavotera, kapena, ngati angathe, sagwirizana ndi zomwe tchati cha mpesa chimakonda
Dr.Weil adagwiritsa ntchito vinyo kuyambira zaka 4 - 17 kupitilira komwe adakolola ndi 240 omwe amamwa vinyo ndipo adapeza kuti oyambitsa sakanatha kusiyanitsa pakati pa vinyo wabwino ndi woyipa, (kupatula ma Bordeaux), pomwe amatha kusiyanitsa, kuyezetsa kwa tasters payekha komanso masanjidwe a ma chart anali abwinoko kuposa kuponyera ndalama. Mayesowo atanenedwa ndi akatswiri a vinyo, kuphatikiza akatswiri a vinyo aku France, zotsatira zake zidalinso zofanana ndi mwayi.
Weil samawona tchati chachikale ngati chopanda pake. Akuti tigwiritse ntchito imodzi kuthandiza "kupeza zogula zabwino mu vinyo. Gulani vinyo pazaka zoyipa, ”zomwe zitha kugulidwa pamtengo wotsika kwambiri. Nkhani yakufunika kwa mpesa ndi imodzi yomwe kusagwirizana kumatha kupitilirabe.
Pali kufanana kochititsa chidwi pakati pa malonda amtsogolo ndi malongosoledwe a zomwe mwina (kapena sizingakhale) zowonedwa ngati chaka champhesa kwa iwo omwe ali ndi zizolowezi zowoneka bwino, zowonekeratu kuti ndizogonjera. Nyama ya munthu wina ndi poizoni wa mnzake; ngati tikhala pakati pa ochita masana ngati omwe amamwa Beaujolais atha kukhala ndi zokolola zochuluka, nawonso amalonda azikhalidwe zitha kukhala bwino miyezi yomwe chidaliro mu Euro chidafika pa nadir yaposachedwa. Ngati tisiyanitse ochita malonda ngati amalonda pamwambapa komanso kupitirira zomwe atha kuchita mwina atha kukhala bwino kuyambira Seputembala. Pomwe malinga ndi lipoti laposachedwa la HSBC lazilombo zazikulu kwambiri m'nkhalango zathu, ma manejala a hedge fund, wakhala chaka choyipa, kumaliza chaka kukhala chogona zitha kuonedwa ngati malo abwino a 'magetsi owala'.
Ndidakopeka kwambiri ndikufunitsitsa kuwunikiranso mbali zathu zazifupi zomwe Dr Weil amayesa kuthekera kwa akatswiri a vinyo kuti adziwe chomwe sichiri mpesa. Kutchula kwake kuti kukhala pafupi ndi wopanda pake kuyeneranso kuyambitsa chidwi ndi kumwetulira pakati pagulu lathu lazamalonda. Poyesa khungu akatswiriwo adalephera, adalengeza kuti akatswiriwo akadapereka zotsatira zabwino zikadangokhala kuti aponya ndalama, ngakhale kulawa kwa vinyo kuli kovuta pamalamulo omwe akatswiriwo akuwagwiritsanso ntchito. Zikuwoneka kuti Dr Weil sanaulule mayina a akatswiri, kuwonera ma snobs a vinyo akuchotsedwa ulemu wawo ndikadakhala nkhanza.
Dr Weil adatinso lingaliro lamatsutso; kugula mavinyo owopsa kwambiri akhoza kukhala 'malingaliro', lingaliro lomwe lingagwirizane bwino ndi amalonda omwe amasankha zolembedwera, koma muziyang'ana mbali zina zazikuluzikulu zam'malire ndi njira zawo. Ndipo ndiye mutu womwe ndikufuna kumaliza ndi kusinkhasinkha komaliza kwa chaka cha 2011. Ngakhale pali malingaliro onse a akatswiri omwe tili nawo tiyenera kupanga zisankho zathu pazifukwa komanso nthawi yomwe timayambitsa. Titha kukhala ndi pulogalamu yowunika / masewera othamanga kwambiri, timalipira squawk mwachangu kwambiri, kukhala ndi 'lite' mtundu wa Bloomberg, kukhala pamndandanda wamakalata amalonda komanso owunikira kwambiri, khalani omvera nthawi zonse pazomwe zimakhazikitsira ' Ndalama zakunja ', khalani ndi chidaliro chonse munjira zathu zamakono komanso maluso, koma nzeru zonsezo ndi luso loyenera kuti muzigwiritsa ntchito bwino zitha kukhala zopanda ntchito pokhapokha titakhala ndi mphamvu pazoyang'anira ndalama zathu komanso kudziletsa.
"Kusinthanitsa zomwe mukuwona osati zomwe mukuganiza" ndi mawu ogulitsa omwe nthawi zambiri amaponyedwa popanda kusinkhasinkha moyenera. Mwina mphuno za akatswiri athu a vinyo zidasokonekera, mwina sakanatha kulumikizana ndi malingaliro awo ndikumverera kukhumudwa kwambiri ndi chilengedwe chawo, kapena mwina akanayamba kukhulupirira kudzikweza kwawo komanso kudzikonda kwawo. Monga tawonera mu 2011 msika ukhoza kuwoneka ngati wosasintha komanso wosayembekezereka, kuti mupindule pamafunika nzeru zanu zonse kuti muzitha kuyendera. Sichiyenera kukhala chaka champhesa kuti misika ipereke phindu, msika uyenera kukhalapo. Muyenera kuwona, kudzipatsa nokha nthawi yoganiza ndikudzipereka ndikulimba mtima pakutsimikiza kwanu kuti muchitepo kanthu. Ngakhale malingaliro athu ndi nzeru zathu zochuluka zitha kugulitsidwa zitha kufotokozedweratu ndi zida zapamadzi zakale;
“Sungadziwe mpaka utakapempha ndalama!” Jesse Livermore 1877 - 1940
2011
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2011 Sanali Chaka Cha Mpesa, Koma Kodi Zozizwitsa Zamphesa Zachulukirachulukira?
Disembala 30 • Ndemanga za Msika • 4244 Views • Comments Off pa 2011 Sizinali Zakale Zamphesa, Koma Kodi Zozizwitsa Zamphesa Zachulukirachulukira?
Vinyo wamphesa amapangidwa kuchokera ku mphesa zomwe zonse, (kapena makamaka), zimakula ndikukololedwa chaka chimodzi chokha. M'mavinyo ena amatanthauza mtundu, monga ku Port kunali nyumba zanyumba zopanga Port ndikulengeza zaka zawo zabwino kwambiri. Kuchokera pachikhalidwechi, kugwiritsa ntchito wamba (ngakhale sikolondola) kumagwiritsa ntchito mawuwa ku vinyo aliyense yemwe amadziwika kuti ndi wakale kwambiri, kapena wapamwamba kwambiri.
Maiko ambiri amalola mphesa kuphatikiza vinyo osati kuyambira chaka chofotokozedwacho. Ku Chile ndi South Africa, chofunikira ndi 75% yazaka zomwezi. Ku Australia, New Zealand, ndi European Union, ndi 85%. Ku USA ndi 85%, pokhapokha vinyo atasankhidwa ndi AVA momwe zingakhalire 95%. Lamulo la 85% ku United States limagwiranso ntchito chimodzimodzi polowa kunja. Chosiyana ndi vinyo wamphesa ndi vinyo wosapanga mphesa (NV), nthawi zambiri amakhala wosakanizika wazaka ziwiri kapena kupitilira apo. Imeneyi ndi mchitidwe wofala kwa opanga winayo omwe amafunafuna chaka chimodzi pachaka.
Kufunika kwa mphesa, komabe, kumasiyana ndipo kumatsutsana. M'madera ambiri a vinyo nyengo zokula zimakhala zofanana. M'madera owuma kugwiritsa ntchito kuthirira kumathandizira kuti mavitamini apangidwe. Vinyo wa zitsamba zapamwamba kuchokera kwa opanga otchuka amatenga mitengo yokwera kuposa yomwe imachokera kuzipilala zapakati makamaka ngati vinyo amakula msinkhu m'botolo. Vinyo wina amangolembedwa ndi mphesa zaka zopitilira zaka zaposachedwa, kuti akhalebe ndi mbiri yabwino, pomwe mavinyo ambiri amapangidwa kuti akhale oledzera achichepere komanso atsopano
Kufunika kwa mphesa kungakokomeze, wolemba nyuzipepala ya New York Times a Frank J. Prial alengeza kuti tchati chachikale sichikhala chakale;
Opanga winayo padziko lapansi awonetsa kuti tchati chachikale chidatha, opanga vinyo tsopano ali ndi ukadaulo komanso luso lopanga vinyo wabwino komanso wabwino kwambiri mzaka zosadziwika
Roman Weil, wapampando wachiwiri wa Oenonomy Society of the US komanso Pulofesa ku Yunivesite ya Chicago, adayesa lingaliro lomwe anthu omwe amamwa mowa adakumana nalo;
Sangathe kusiyanitsa pakulawa kwa zakumwa vinyo wazaka zomwe adavotera kwambiri ndi zazaka zomwe zidavotera, kapena, ngati angathe, sagwirizana ndi zomwe tchati cha mpesa chimakonda
Dr.Weil adagwiritsa ntchito vinyo kuyambira zaka 4 - 17 kupitilira komwe adakolola ndi 240 omwe amamwa vinyo ndipo adapeza kuti oyambitsa sakanatha kusiyanitsa pakati pa vinyo wabwino ndi woyipa, (kupatula ma Bordeaux), pomwe amatha kusiyanitsa, kuyezetsa kwa tasters payekha komanso masanjidwe a ma chart anali abwinoko kuposa kuponyera ndalama. Mayesowo atanenedwa ndi akatswiri a vinyo, kuphatikiza akatswiri a vinyo aku France, zotsatira zake zidalinso zofanana ndi mwayi.
Weil samawona tchati chachikale ngati chopanda pake. Akuti tigwiritse ntchito imodzi kuthandiza "kupeza zogula zabwino mu vinyo. Gulani vinyo pazaka zoyipa, ”zomwe zitha kugulidwa pamtengo wotsika kwambiri. Nkhani yakufunika kwa mpesa ndi imodzi yomwe kusagwirizana kumatha kupitilirabe.
Pali kufanana kochititsa chidwi pakati pa malonda amtsogolo ndi malongosoledwe a zomwe mwina (kapena sizingakhale) zowonedwa ngati chaka champhesa kwa iwo omwe ali ndi zizolowezi zowoneka bwino, zowonekeratu kuti ndizogonjera. Nyama ya munthu wina ndi poizoni wa mnzake; ngati tikhala pakati pa ochita masana ngati omwe amamwa Beaujolais atha kukhala ndi zokolola zochuluka, nawonso amalonda azikhalidwe zitha kukhala bwino miyezi yomwe chidaliro mu Euro chidafika pa nadir yaposachedwa. Ngati tisiyanitse ochita malonda ngati amalonda pamwambapa komanso kupitirira zomwe atha kuchita mwina atha kukhala bwino kuyambira Seputembala. Pomwe malinga ndi lipoti laposachedwa la HSBC lazilombo zazikulu kwambiri m'nkhalango zathu, ma manejala a hedge fund, wakhala chaka choyipa, kumaliza chaka kukhala chogona zitha kuonedwa ngati malo abwino a 'magetsi owala'.
Ndidakopeka kwambiri ndikufunitsitsa kuwunikiranso mbali zathu zazifupi zomwe Dr Weil amayesa kuthekera kwa akatswiri a vinyo kuti adziwe chomwe sichiri mpesa. Kutchula kwake kuti kukhala pafupi ndi wopanda pake kuyeneranso kuyambitsa chidwi ndi kumwetulira pakati pagulu lathu lazamalonda. Poyesa khungu akatswiriwo adalephera, adalengeza kuti akatswiriwo akadapereka zotsatira zabwino zikadangokhala kuti aponya ndalama, ngakhale kulawa kwa vinyo kuli kovuta pamalamulo omwe akatswiriwo akuwagwiritsanso ntchito. Zikuwoneka kuti Dr Weil sanaulule mayina a akatswiri, kuwonera ma snobs a vinyo akuchotsedwa ulemu wawo ndikadakhala nkhanza.
Dr Weil adatinso lingaliro lamatsutso; kugula mavinyo owopsa kwambiri akhoza kukhala 'malingaliro', lingaliro lomwe lingagwirizane bwino ndi amalonda omwe amasankha zolembedwera, koma muziyang'ana mbali zina zazikuluzikulu zam'malire ndi njira zawo. Ndipo ndiye mutu womwe ndikufuna kumaliza ndi kusinkhasinkha komaliza kwa chaka cha 2011. Ngakhale pali malingaliro onse a akatswiri omwe tili nawo tiyenera kupanga zisankho zathu pazifukwa komanso nthawi yomwe timayambitsa. Titha kukhala ndi pulogalamu yowunika / masewera othamanga kwambiri, timalipira squawk mwachangu kwambiri, kukhala ndi 'lite' mtundu wa Bloomberg, kukhala pamndandanda wamakalata amalonda komanso owunikira kwambiri, khalani omvera nthawi zonse pazomwe zimakhazikitsira ' Ndalama zakunja ', khalani ndi chidaliro chonse munjira zathu zamakono komanso maluso, koma nzeru zonsezo ndi luso loyenera kuti muzigwiritsa ntchito bwino zitha kukhala zopanda ntchito pokhapokha titakhala ndi mphamvu pazoyang'anira ndalama zathu komanso kudziletsa.
"Kusinthanitsa zomwe mukuwona osati zomwe mukuganiza" ndi mawu ogulitsa omwe nthawi zambiri amaponyedwa popanda kusinkhasinkha moyenera. Mwina mphuno za akatswiri athu a vinyo zidasokonekera, mwina sakanatha kulumikizana ndi malingaliro awo ndikumverera kukhumudwa kwambiri ndi chilengedwe chawo, kapena mwina akanayamba kukhulupirira kudzikweza kwawo komanso kudzikonda kwawo. Monga tawonera mu 2011 msika ukhoza kuwoneka ngati wosasintha komanso wosayembekezereka, kuti mupindule pamafunika nzeru zanu zonse kuti muzitha kuyendera. Sichiyenera kukhala chaka champhesa kuti misika ipereke phindu, msika uyenera kukhalapo. Muyenera kuwona, kudzipatsa nokha nthawi yoganiza ndikudzipereka ndikulimba mtima pakutsimikiza kwanu kuti muchitepo kanthu. Ngakhale malingaliro athu ndi nzeru zathu zochuluka zitha kugulitsidwa zitha kufotokozedweratu ndi zida zapamadzi zakale;
“Sungadziwe mpaka utakapempha ndalama!” Jesse Livermore 1877 - 1940
2011
« Kodi Kupeza Ngongole Zina Sikungapeweke? Euro ikupitiriza kugwa motsutsana ndi Yen ndi Dollar »