MAKEKE WEEKLY SNAPSHOT 7/12 - 11/12 | ʻO KA COLLAPSE O USD I KA LĀ I KA PANDEMIC He moʻolelo e pono ai ka hōʻike hou aku.
Ua hoʻomalu ʻia kekahi mau mea i ka pule kālepa e hoʻopau ana iā Kēkēmapa 4. ʻO Covid a me ka manaʻolana maikaʻi o nā lāʻau āpau, ʻo Brexit, nā ʻāpana make o ke aupuni Trump, a me nā kūkākūkā hoʻonāukiuki e nā panakō a me nā aupuni. ʻO kēia nā pilikia macroeconomic mau e kuhikuhi paha i nā ʻano a me nā lauana a mākou e ʻike nei ma kā mākou FX pakuhi a me nā manawa i nā lā a me nā pule e hiki mai ana.
ʻO ka hopena Covid ma nā mākeke kaulike
ʻOiai ʻo ka euphoria lāʻau lapaʻau i hoʻomohala ʻia i loko o ka pule, e hakakā ana nā aupuni like ʻole me ka ʻaʻa e hāʻawi i nā lāʻau āpau me ka ʻole o ka hopena o ka ikaika. Hoʻohana wale ka lāʻau a Pfizer ma -70c, no laila ke lawe ʻana i kahi lāʻau i hōʻike ʻole ʻia ma o ke kaulahao a hiki i ka lima o kekahi e hōʻike ana i kahi hana loiloi i hana ʻole ʻia ma mua. Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole maopopo iā mākou inā pale ka lāʻau lapaʻau i ka hoʻololi asymptomatic a i ka lōʻihi o ka lōʻihi.
Ua hoʻopaʻa ʻo USA i kokoke i 3,000 mau make a 200,000 mau hihia maikaʻi i kēlā me kēia lā i nā lā i hala iho nei a wānana ka poʻe loea i kēia mau helu e ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi inā ʻaʻole i hoʻohana ka USA i kahi kulekele e paʻa ai ka uhi mask. Me ka ʻole o kēia ana, ke kū nei ka ʻāina ma mua o ka make ʻana o 450K ma mua o Malaki 1, e like me ka wanana a ke Kulanui ʻo John Hopkin. Ke noi nei ʻo Joe Biden i kahi kulekele pale lole nona he 100 mau lā ma hope o kona hoʻolaʻa ʻia ʻana.
Me ka nānā ʻole i ka make ʻana o Covid a me nā helu helu i hōʻea i nā kiʻekiʻe, ua hele mua nā mana ʻoihana ʻo USA, e lawe ana i nā kiʻekiʻe. ʻAʻohe mea pohihihi no ke aha e ulu nui ana ʻo Wall Street i ka wā e hiolo ana ʻo Main Street; ka pīhoihoi kālā a me nā hoʻoikaika kālā i laka ʻia i loko o nā mākeke. ʻAʻohe hōʻike o ka trickle-down; iwakāluakūmālima miliona mau mākua ʻAmelika i kēia manawa i loaʻa mai nā pōmaikaʻi hana, akā lawe nā mākeke i nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe.
ʻAʻohe hopena o USD slump i mua o ka maka
Ke hāʻule nui nei ke kālā US i nā pule i hala iho nei. ʻAʻole hiki i ka hoʻoponopono Trump a me ke aupuni Biden e hiki mai ana ke kamaʻilio i kēia pilikia.
ʻO ke dālā nāwaliwali kekahi o nā pono koʻikoʻi; hana ia i nā mea hoʻolilo i haʻahaʻa, ʻo ka ʻaoʻao flip ke piʻi aʻe nei ka hoʻonui, akā i kahi ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) e mālama pono ʻia ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka waiwai.
ʻO ke kālā e hiolo nei he hopena i hiki ʻole ke alo ʻia o nā trillion o nā dālā i hoʻoulu ʻia e ke aupuni ʻo Fed a me USA e hoʻōla hou i kahi hoʻokele waiwai Covid i hōʻeha ʻia. Inā hiki i ka ʻAhaʻōlelo a me ka Senate ke ʻae i kahi tranche hou o ka stimulate i ka pule e hiki mai ana, hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo e waiho nāwaliwali ke kālā.
Ma ke kau kālepa ʻana ma Ladana ma ke kakahiaka Pōʻalima, ua kūʻai aku ka helu helu kālā (DXY) kokoke i ka pā ma 90.64. Ke hoʻomanaʻo nei ʻoe ua paʻa ka papa kuhikuhi i kahi kūlana kokoke i 100 i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, hiki ke ana ʻia ka hāneʻe. Ua iho ka DXY kokoke i -6% makahiki a hiki i kēia lā, a iho i ka -1.29% i kēlā me kēia pule.
ʻO ke kumukūʻai USD ma mua o ka euro kahi ana hoʻi i ka makemake ʻole e hoʻopaʻa kālā. A he mea pono e hoʻomaopopo e holo nei ka ECB i nā kulekele ZIRP a me NIRP pono ʻole e hōʻike i ka euro ma ke ʻano he wahi palekana. Ke kālepa nei ʻo EUR / USD i ka 0.13% i ke kau kakahiaka; ua piʻi aʻe ma 2.93% o ka mahina a me 8.89% makahiki a hiki i kēia lā.
Ma 1.216 ke kālepa aku nei ka lua kālā ma ke kiʻekiʻe i ʻike ʻole ʻia mai ʻApelila-Mei 2018. Ke nānā ʻia ma ka pakuhi o kēlā me kēia lā, ʻike ʻia ke ʻano mai ka hopena o Nowemapa, a e nānā pono nā mea kālepa swing i ke kūlana ma o ka hoʻoponopono ʻana paha. kū kā lākou trailing e hōʻoia i ka pākēneka o nā loaʻa.
ʻAʻole i ku ka Brexit e hiki mai ana i ka waiwai o sterling i kēia manawa
ʻO 27 mau lā ka UK mai ka haʻalele ʻana i ka bloc kalepa EU 27 aupuni, a ʻoiai ke aupuni o UK e hoʻokikina nei i ka hoʻopuka hoʻopakele minuke hope loa, he ʻoiaʻiʻo ka mea i koe; ke nalowale nei ʻo UK i ke komo ʻana o ka mākeke hoʻokahi. ʻAʻole hiki i ka poʻe, nā waiwai, nā kālā a me nā lawelawe ke neʻe i kahi kumu frictionless a me ka ʻole o nā uku.
Pono nā kānaka kālailai a me nā mea kūkākūkā mākeke e nānā i kā lākou pakuhi a hoʻomaopopo i ka haunaele kūpono e hiki mai ana mai Ianuali 1. ʻO ka UK kahi hoʻokele waiwai 80% i hilinaʻi ʻia i nā lawelawe a me ka mea kūʻai aku, ʻehiku mile ka lōʻihi o nā lorry tailbacks ma nā awa o UK e hoʻopili i ka noʻonoʻo. Ke ʻōlelo nei nā hui huki i ka lehulehu e manaʻo i nā waihona hakahaka i nā supermarkets.
ʻO ka nāwaliwali o ke dālā ma o ka papa i makemake nui ʻia no GBP; ua ala nui ʻo Sterling ma mua o USD no nā kumu ʻelua; ka nāwaliwali o ke dālā a me ka manaʻolana Brexit. ʻO ka hāʻule ʻana o USD i nā pule i hala iho nei ua hoʻohuli paha i ka makaʻu ʻole e pili ana iā GBP.
I ke kau Lādana ma Kēkēmapa 4, kālepa ʻo GBP / USD i lalo -0.25% ma hope o ka hoʻopuka ʻana o nā hui kūkā kamaʻilio Brexit i nā ʻōlelo e hōʻike ana e hāʻule ana nā kamaʻilio.
Ua nānā pono ka hui Pelekane i ka lawaiʻa ʻana, ma ke ʻano he ʻoihana i emi iho ma mua o 0.1% o ka UK GDP. Hoʻopuka ka pilikia kaiāulu i ka manaʻo o ka lāhui a me ke aloha ʻāina i waena o kēlā mau Brits i heluhelu i nā puke liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi.
Aia ʻo GBP / USD ma 2.45% i kēlā me kēia mahina a me 2.40% makahiki i kēia lā. ʻO ke kumukūʻai o kēia manawa kahi mamao mai ka parity ma waena o USD a me GBP nui nā loiloi i wānana wiwo ʻole i kēia manawa i ka makahiki i hala, he pandemi Black Swan ka hopena i ʻike ʻole ʻia a me nā hopena i manaʻo ʻole ʻia.
Ua hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻo Sterling i nā loaʻa me ka euro i ka manawa o 2020, a i ke kau mua, ua kūʻai aku ka pālua kālā EUR / GBP ma 0.905 a i ka 0.33% ʻoiai e hoʻoweliweli nei e uhaʻi iā R1. ʻO EUR / GBP ka 6.36% o ka makahiki a hiki i kēia lā. ʻO kēia ala, a hui pū ʻia me nā kālā antipodean ʻo NZD a me AUD e piʻi nei me GBP, hōʻike ʻia i ka manaʻo palupalu āpau a me ka hopohopo e paʻa i nā paona UK. E iho ana ka paona -2.31% versus yen i ka makahiki 2020.
ʻAlohilohi ke gula ma ke ʻano he wahi palekana i ka manawa o 2020
ʻOiai nā mea paʻa o ka physics PhDs e hakakā e wehewehe i ke kumu i ala ai nā mākeke kaulike ma USA a me nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe e hoʻopaʻa i nā kiʻekiʻe, ʻoiai nā wahi palekana e like me ka Swiss franc, yen a me nā metala makamae i loaʻa ka waiwai nui.
Kū aʻe ke gula i 20% makahiki a hiki i kēia lā ʻoiai aia ke kālā ma 34.20%. Ua paheʻe ke kālā ma lalo o ka radar. I ka hopena mua o ka Covid maʻi ahulau e wāwahi nei i nā mākeke ma Malaki a me ʻApelila, paʻakikī ka loaʻa kālā kālā.
ʻO nā mea ʻē aʻe ma mua o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka PM ma o ka digital / virtual ʻo ia hoʻi ke kūʻai ʻana iā ia i kahi ʻano kino i kūpono piha no nā mea hoʻopukapuka liʻiliʻi. ʻO ka auneke kālā ma lalo o $ 25, ʻo kahi auneke gula he $ 1840. He koho maʻalahi ia no nā mea hoʻopukapuka liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi (akā clued-up), ka mea i lilo ka hilinaʻi ʻole i nā aupuni a me ka hāʻawi kālā.
ʻO nā hanana kalena hoʻokele waiwai o kēia pule aʻe e diarise ai
Pono nā mea kālepa e nānā i nā pilikia ma mua o ka ʻōlelo macroeconomic a me ka politika i kēia pule aʻe, ma luna a ma luna o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o ka ʻikepili a me nā hoʻolaha i helu ʻia i ka kalena. Inā ʻaʻole hiki i ke aupuni USA ke ʻae i ka hoʻonāukiuki kālā hou ʻana a inā piʻi aʻe nā hihia Covid a me nā make ma waena o ka honua a inā ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻonā ʻia nā pilikia Brexi. I kēlā hihia, e hoʻopili ʻia ʻo USD, GBP a me EUR.
Eia nō naʻe, he mana ko nā ʻikepili kalena a me nā hanana e neʻe i kā mākou mākeke forex, a i kēia pule aʻe ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia kekahi mau hanana pīhoihoi.
Ua paʻi ʻia nā manaʻo heluhelu ZEW ʻē aʻe no Kelemania ma ka Poalua, Kekemapa 8. ʻO ka wānana no kahi hāʻule, kahi e hōʻike ai i nā ʻāpana o Kelemania ke manaʻo nei i ka hopena o ka hopena o Covid e pili ana.
E hoʻolaha ʻo Kanada i kāna hoʻoholo uku paneʻe ma ka Pōʻakolu, a ʻo ka wānana no ka loli. Ua piʻi aʻe ka CAD e 9% ma mua o USD ma mua o ka pule i hala. Inā hoʻohaʻahaʻa ka BoC i ka helu mai 1.67% a i 0.25%, hiki i kēia mau loaʻa ke loaʻa i lalo o ke kaomi. Ma ka Pōʻahā e hoʻolaha ana ʻo UK ONS i ka ʻike GDP hou loa. ʻO ka wānana Reuters no kahi hāʻule mai 0.00% ulu i hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻia i ka mahina i hala. Kuhi ʻia hoʻi ka heluhelu ʻana o QoQ mai 1% i hoʻopaʻa ʻia no Q15.5. Hōʻike pū ka ECB i kā lākou hoʻoholo hoʻoholo uku paneʻe; ke wānana nei ka helu hōʻaiʻē e noho ma 2%, me ka helu hōʻemi o ka waihona ma -0.00%. ʻAʻohe manaʻo e lawe ka ECB i ka helu poʻo ma lalo o 0.25% i kēia manawa i ka pilikia Covid.
« Kūʻai aku nā helu helu kaulike US ma kahi o nā kiʻekiʻe e like me ka hoʻomau ʻana o ka hāʻule kālā Kuhi ka loiloi a Goldman Sachs i ka hāʻule hou ʻana o 6% no USD ma 2021 »
