WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 2 / 10-6 / 10 | Hiki paha i kahi helu NFP haʻahaʻa loa ke lawe i nā mākeke me ke kahaha?
ʻO kēlā manawa kēlā o ka mahina; ke hoʻopuka ʻia ka helu NFP ma ka Pōʻalima mua o ka mahina hou. No ka poʻe kālepa novice haʻohaʻo lākou i ke ʻano o ka pīhoihoi a pau, akā naʻe, ʻo nā mea kālepa i pili i nā mākeke i ka wā o ka Great Recession, ke hiki i nā helu NFP ke hōʻike i ka nalo o nā hana 700k i hoʻokahi mahina, e waiho mau i kahi hale kūʻai nui i ka helu. He manawa iki ia mai ko mākou ʻike ʻana i kahi haʻalulu i ka ʻikepili NFP, i lawa e hoʻoneʻe i nā mākeke kaulike ʻo USA, a i ʻole ke kumukūʻai o ke dālā, akā i ka Pōʻalima ka wanana no nā hana 50k wale nō i hana ʻia i Kepakemapa, e hōʻailona ana i kēia Pōʻalima ma ke ʻano he hanana e kiaʻi pono ai i nā kūlana.
ʻO nā hanana hopena maikaʻi ʻē aʻe i koʻikoʻi no ka pule e hiki mai ana: ʻo ka RBA hoʻonohonoho i ka uku paneʻe o Australia, nā heluhelu ISM no ka USA a me Markit PMI heluhelu no nā aupuni nui o ʻEulopa a me USA. Hoʻopuka ʻia ka Swiss CPI, e like me ka ʻike hou o ka Kanada hana ʻole a me ka ʻike hana.
Lāpule hoʻomaka me ka papa kuhikuhi hana AiG o Australia, i kēia manawa ma 59.8 no ʻAukake wale nō i wānana ʻia kahi hoʻololi i luna kūpono. Ma hope e loaʻa iā mākou kahi raft o ka ʻikepili Tankan Iapana, ʻo ka mea nui ʻo ia ka nui o nā mea hana a me nā mea hana ʻole a me nā ʻike heluhelu. Ua wānana ʻia nā moʻohelu heluhelu e hōʻike i nā hoʻomaikaʻi kūpono a me ka hoʻopau ʻana o ke aupuni o Iapana i kēia manawa, e like me kā ke kuhina nui Abe i koho ai i kahi koho balota, e ʻike ʻia paha ka ʻike waiwai o Iapana i nā pule e hiki mai ana, e pili ana i ka hopena o ka yen. ʻO kā Japan kūʻai kūʻai kaʻa a me kāna Nikkei PMI no ka hana ʻana, e paʻi ʻia.
As Ua wehe nā mākeke o ʻEulopa i ka Pōʻakahi E paʻi ʻia nā helu kūleʻa Swiss, ua hāʻule e -0.7% i ʻAukake, e nānā ʻia nā hoʻomaikaʻi. E paʻi ʻia ka Swiss SVME Swiss no Sepatemaba, ma 61.2 no ʻAukake, ke lana ka manaʻo no ka mālama ʻana i ka heluhelu. E hāʻawi ʻia nā PMI hana no Palani, Kelemania a me ʻItalia e Markit, e like me ka heluhelu pū ʻana no ka hana ʻana o Eurozone, ma 60.6 no ʻAukake e manaʻo ʻia e mālama ʻia kēia kiʻi, inā ʻaʻole maikaʻi. E hoʻokuʻu ʻia ka PMI hana ʻo UK, no ka hoihoi hoihoi i hāʻawi ʻia e hōʻike ana ka manaʻo hoʻokele waiwai orthodox i ka paona nāwaliwali, i ʻike ʻia i nā ʻelua ʻelua mau makahiki o ka makahiki 2017, i alakaʻi ʻia ai i ka hoʻoulu ʻana / hoʻoulu ʻana i ka hale hana ma UK Canada Markit PMI i paʻi ʻia ma ʻO ka Pōʻakahi, e like me ke kaʻina o nā heluhelu ʻana ISM no USA, ua ʻoi aku ka waiwai o kēia mau heluhelu ʻana o ISM ma USA ma mua o PMI a Markit, ʻo ka heluhelu nui no ka hana ʻana, e manaʻo ʻia e hele mai ma 57.8, mai 58.8 i ʻAukake. Kuhi ʻia ka hoʻolilo hale ma USA i piʻi i ʻAukake a i ka 0.5% ulu, mai ka hāʻule 0.6% i Iulai.
Pōʻalua e hoʻomaka me ko New Zealand ʻike kuʻuna maʻamau o kēlā me kēia mahina e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai waiū, me ka mana o ka waiū. ʻO nā huahana waiū he mea hoʻolilo nui ia o NZ i ʻAsia, me ka ʻike hou ʻana o NZ i kahi pāleale kau i ke koho balota ākea a me ka hoʻoholo e mālama i ka uku paneʻe ma 1.75%, e ʻimi ʻia ka likelika o ka ʻikepili. E hōʻike ke kikowaena waena o Australia (ka RBA) i kāna hoʻoholo i nā uku paneʻe, wānana ʻia e noho mau ʻole ma 1.5%. ʻO ka heluhelu ʻana o ka hilinaʻi ʻana o nā mea kūʻai aku ʻo Iapana e nānā pono ʻia, e hoʻokokoke loa ana i ke kuhina nui ʻo Abe e kāhea ana i kahi koho balota, pili pono ka mālama ʻana i ka hilinaʻi. E paʻi ʻia ka PMI kūkulu o UK, ma 51.1 no ʻAukake ua hōʻike ia i ka ulu ʻana, akā naʻe, ua hele ʻole kēia me ka ʻikepili ONS o UK. Ke kāohi nei nā mea kūkulu o UK i nā papahana, no ka maopopo ʻole o Brexit? E paʻi ʻia ana nā ahiahi i nā heluhelu ʻikepili like ʻole e pili ana iā Australia a me New Zealand, ʻo ka mea nui loa ka hana AiG o ka papa kuhikuhi lawelawe.
Pōʻakolu Ua hoʻolaha ʻia nā lawelawe o Iapana a me nā PMI hui pū, e like me ka wehe ʻana o nā mākeke o ʻEulopa i kahi ʻauʻau o PMI e pili ana iā ʻEulopa i paʻi ʻia, hoʻolaha ʻia nā hana, nā lawelawe a me nā mea i hoʻohui ʻia no Palani, Italia, Kelemania, Eurozone a me UK. ʻO kā UK he mea nānā ke nānā nui ʻia, hāʻawi ʻia i ke kūlana Brexit, nā lawelawe ma 53.7 a me ka hui ʻana ma 54 no ʻAukake, e mālama ʻia. Inā ʻaʻole a laila hiki i ka sterling ma lalo o ke kaomi. E hōʻike ʻia ka ʻikepili Eurozone YoY, ke kali nei no ka helu o 2.6% i kēia manawa e kūlike. I ka neʻe ʻana o ka nānā i USA, ua paʻi ʻia ka heluhelu ʻana o ISM non manufacturing ISM, wānana ʻia e komo i 55.3 no Sepatemaba, ka heluhelu like i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i ʻAukake. ʻO ka wā ahiahi o ʻEulopa, ʻo Janet Yellen, ka luna o ka Fed, e haʻi ʻōlelo i ka panakō kaiāulu ma St. Pau ka lā me ka ʻikepili a Iapana e pili ana i ke kūʻai ʻana i nā palapala haole a me nā waihona.
Poaha Wehe ʻia me ka ʻikepili Ausetalia e pili ana i ke kūʻai aku kūʻai aku ʻana a me ke kaulike kalepa, me ka hoʻoholo i hoʻoholo mua ʻia i loko o ka pule e pili ana i ka uku paneʻe Aus, e nānā ʻia kēia mau helu ʻike paʻakikī, e ʻike inā ua kūlike ka hoʻoholo hoʻoholo me ka hana hoʻokele waiwai holoʻokoʻa. . Ke mākaukau nei nā mākeke o ʻEulopa e wehe, e paʻi ʻia ka metric CPI hou loa o Switzerland, ʻaʻohe hoʻololi mai ka 0.5% YoY o kēia manawa i manaʻo ʻia. E hōʻike ʻia ka PMI kūkulu o Kelemania, mālama ʻia ka heluhelu ʻana no 54.9 no ʻAukake, e hōʻike pū ʻo Markit i nā PMI kūʻai no Kelemania, ka Eurozone, Palani a me ʻItalia. Pau nā ʻikepili nui o ʻEulopa no ka lā me kahi hōʻike e pili ana i ka hālāwai kulekele hou i paʻi ʻia. Aia kahi pākuʻi ʻikepili huikau (o ka ʻikepili paʻakikī a palupalu), mai USA ma ke awakea; Hoʻokiʻoki ka hana hana paʻakikī, nā hoʻopiʻi hana ʻole i kēlā me kēia pule, ke kaulike ʻoihana, nā kauoha hale hana, nā kauoha ukana paʻa, ʻoiai ʻelua mau luna Fed i haʻi ʻōlelo ma nā ʻaha kūkā a me nā limahana limahana.
Pōʻalima hōʻike i ka uku Kepanī a me nā loaʻa kālā, ua hāʻule lāua ʻelua i ʻAukake, e paʻi pū ʻia nā papa kuhikuhi alakaʻi a me ka coefficient no Iapana. E paʻi ʻia hoʻi nā kauoha hale hana Kelemania, ke holo nei i kēia manawa ma 5% ulu YoY, ua kiʻi iho nā kiʻi MoM i kēia manawa i ka manawa (iho -0.7% i Iulai), e manaʻo ʻia ka hoʻi i ka ulu ulu. E paʻi ʻia ka ʻikepili hana hou a Kanada a me ka hana ʻole, no kekahi hoihoi e hiki mai ana i ka mahina ma hope o ka hoʻonui ʻana o kā Kanada pākēneka i kāna uku paneʻe. ʻO ka helu hana ʻole o 6.2% i kēia manawa ʻaʻole i manaʻo ʻia e loli.
E paʻi ʻia ka NPF mahina maʻa mau (non payroll payroll) ma ka Pōʻalima, 50k mau hana hou wale no ka mahina o Kepakemapa i manaʻo ʻia, ma lalo loa o ka 156k i hana ʻia i ʻAukake a ma lalo ka nui o ka helu mahina o ka makahiki 250k. ʻOiai ʻo ka ʻikepili ʻo NFP ʻaʻole hana i nā ahi ahi i nā mahina i hala iho nei (a i ʻole mau makahiki), hiki ke loli kēia inā he mea haʻahaʻa ke kiʻi ʻana i nā mea hoʻopukapuka a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka. Ua wānana ʻia ka loaʻa kālā maʻamau e 0.3%, mai 0.1% i ʻAukake, a he mea paha ia e hoʻonui ai i ka ulu uku makahiki, ma mua o ka piʻi ʻana o 2.5% i kēlā me kēia makahiki.
« Hoʻokumu ke kūkākūkā Brexit i ka sterling a me ka euro i ka whipsaw, ʻoiai ke hoʻololi nei nā mea hoʻopukapuka ʻo USA iā lākou iho i ka piʻi ʻana o ka helu a me QT ʻO nā PMI no ka UK ka Eurozone a me USA, me nā heluhelu ISM USA, ke kumu o nā hanana kalena nui o ka Pōʻakahi. »
