MAIKI WEEKLY SNAPSHOT 21/12 - 24/12 | Pehea e pili ai nā mākeke no nā lāʻau, FX a me nā huahana i kēia pule XMAS?
ʻO ka pule ma mua o Xmas kahi manawa maʻamau no ke kālepa ʻana i ka makepono, FX, a me nā mākeke kūʻai. Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole kēia he makahiki maʻamau. ʻO 2020 ka wehewehe ʻana o kahi makahiki kupaianaha maoli.
Ua lanakila ka pōʻino o ka Coronavirus i kā mākou ao kālepa mai Malaki, a ʻaʻohe mea i hiki ke wānana pehea e hōʻea ai ka Black Swan, e hoʻohiolo i ka hilinaʻi o ka mākeke ma kahi ākea o nā palekana i hopena i ka pale ʻole.
Akā ua hiki koke mai ke kākoʻo ma ke ʻano o ka stimulus nui loa mai nā aupuni komohana a me nā panakō waena, e hoʻoulu ana i nā mākeke kaulike e hoʻopaʻa i nā kiʻekiʻe. Aia ka SPX 500 ma 14.33% i kēlā me kēia makahiki a me ka NASDAQ 100 i kahi 43.83% kupaianaha a me nā mea ma mua ʻole.
Makahiki hou, a me kahi hoʻokele haʻahaʻa i ka White House
I loko o nā makahiki i hala aku nei, nui ka poʻe loiloi i kālele i kā lākou puke hoʻomalu kalena hoʻokele waiwai a kau nui ʻia i nā pilikia e like me nā hanana macroeconomic a me nā tweet a Trump. No kekahi manawa i kona noho pelekikena ʻana, kāna mau tweets a me kāna trolling ma ka pāhana e kaohi ʻia e neʻe ana i ka mākeke.
ʻO ke kaua kūpono ʻole āna i kiʻi ai me Kina i hoʻoliʻiliʻi i nā mākeke kaulike e halihali i nā kūlana mākeke i ka hopena o 2018 i ka makahiki mua o 2019 a me ka waiwai o USD i paheʻe. Ua ʻāhewa ʻo ia iā Kina no ka hoʻohana kālā ʻana a hoʻomaka ʻo ia e hahau i nā ʻauhau nunui i ka lawe ʻia mai o Kina i ʻAmelika. Ua whipsawed nā mākeke kaulike ʻo US i kāna mau makemake.
Ua manaʻo ʻoe e hāwanawana kekahi i kāna pepeiao “Er, Mr Peresidena; ʻaʻole maopopo iā mākou e holo ana kēia, lawe mākou i ka hapa nui o kā mākou waiwai mai Kina, ʻaʻole kūʻai mai lākou iā mākou, koe wale ka mahiʻai holoholona a me nā holoholona. A inā kū lākou i ke kūʻai ʻana ua huhū ʻoe i nā mahiʻai āu i hoʻohiki ai e pale aku i kāu mau koho balota 2016 ”.
ʻOiaʻiʻo i ka form, ke hoʻopau nei ʻo ia i kāna manawa i lalo i ka White House e hoʻopiʻi nei i ka panakō waena o Swiss no ka hoʻohana kālā ʻana, no ka mea ua piʻi aʻe ʻo CHF e 8.96% a ʻo USD i ka makahiki 2020. Eia nō naʻe, pono ke hōʻike i kahi mea hōʻino i nā hoa o ka US kālā iā Trump. ua loaʻa ka Euro ma kahi o 10% ma mua o ke dālā, piʻi ka Aussie 9%, piʻi ka yen 5%, a iho ka Dollar Index (DXY) -7%. Maliʻa paha, i kona manaʻo, he kipi wale nō ia.
Ma ke ʻano he loiloi, hoʻāʻo mākou e noho politika ʻole; Eia naʻe, i ka manawa i hoʻokumu ʻia ʻo Biden i Ianuali 2021, hiki iā mākou āpau ke kali i mua i kahi wā kūpaʻa a me ke olakino ma USA. ʻAʻole kaua hou i nā kaua kalepa, hiki i Iran, Venezuela a me ʻEulopa, ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana o ka diplomacy honua, a me ke komo pū ʻana me ka ʻoliʻoli hoʻololi o ke aniau ʻo Paris ma ke ʻano he palena liʻiliʻi.
Pahu mākeke no kēia pule
E kala i ka wā ma mua no ke kani ʻana e like me ka moʻolelo haʻihaʻi akā ʻaʻole mākou hoʻokahi i ka lawe ʻana i nā ʻōlelo mākeke hou hou i kēia mau lā. ʻElua mau pilikia nui e hoʻomalu nei i nā mākeke; ka stimulus e pili ana i ka hoʻopaʻi ʻia e ka US Senate a me Brexit.
Kokoke ka mea hoʻonāukiuki i kahi ʻaelike, kahi kikoʻī kikoʻī nui e pili ana i ka nui o kēlā me kēia mākua US a me ke keiki. Manaʻo kekahi Senatoa Repubalika $ 600 no kēlā me kēia mākua a $ 500 no kēlā me kēia keiki e lawa me nā palena kūpono. Ke kaomi nei nā Senatoa ʻē aʻe i $ 1,200 no kēlā me kēia mākua a me $ 600 no kēlā me kēia keiki.
He mea hoihoi ia e hoʻomaopopo he $ 2.4 trillion i ʻae ʻia e ka USA USA i nā ʻano like ʻole. Manaʻo nā kuhi he hiki i ka stimulus hoʻohui ʻia ma o ka Fed a me Treasury (govt) ke kiʻekiʻe o $ 6 trillion ke pau ka makahiki 2020, e hoʻonui ana i ka hōʻaiʻē US holoʻokoʻa ma mua o 125% v GDP.
He aha ka mea ʻoiaʻiʻo, e hōʻea mai ana nā uku stimulus e kōkua i nā poʻe ʻAmelika he nui e ʻoliʻoli i kahi ʻoliʻoli. Ua hāʻule nā kūʻai kūʻai liʻiliʻi ma ka US, a ʻaʻole nā mea hana he nui e hoʻolilo kālā ʻoiai e noʻonoʻo ana he mea maikaʻi, e hoʻopaʻa au i koʻu kāʻei i Ianuali ”no ka mea ʻaʻohe o lākou manaʻo inā lākou e hana ma Ianuali.
I ka loaʻa ʻana o kahi kōkua kōkua ʻole ka hana he iwakāluakūmālima miliona mau mākua US, 60% o nā home ʻaʻohe mālama kālā kūpono, a ma ka Pōʻahā ua hoʻohui ʻia he 885K hou aʻe i ka papa inoa no nā kuleana hana ʻole i kēlā me kēia pule.
Brexit; ʻaʻole lākou e ʻae i ka ʻaelike ma ka hopena pule?
ʻO ka hopena hope loa i manaʻo ʻia ʻo ia ka ʻāpana hope loa o ka "ʻo kaʻu hāʻawi hope loa ia, lawe a haʻalele iā ia" Brexit saga. Akā ua paheʻe ka manawa palena manawa, e like me ʻOkakopa a me Nowemapa. Ua ʻae ʻo UK a me EU e kūkākūkā i kēia hopena pule e hoʻāʻo e loaʻa i kahi hopena.
ʻIke mākou āpau i kahi helehelena hoʻōla helehelena e hele mai ana, ʻoiai ke hāʻawi nei ʻo EU i UK i kahi puka lokomaikaʻi, akā ʻo ka moʻolelo i haku ʻia e hoʻopunipuni i ka lehulehu o UK hiki ʻole ke wānana. ʻO ke kuhi ʻoi loa ka hoʻolaha ʻia ʻana o kahi ʻaelike hemo a paʻa ʻole, akā paʻa ʻia ia Ianuali no ke koho balota ma ka ʻaha kūkā o EU. He aha kēlā hana i ka lā Ianuali 1 Brexit ka manaʻo o kekahi.
ʻO nā mea āpau e pili ana i nā optics me ke aupuni UK; pono lākou i kā lākou poʻe koho balota e ʻike iā lākou ma ke ʻano he lanakila. Akā ke nalowale nei nā kamaʻāina o UK i ke kūʻokoʻa o ka neʻe, ke kūʻokoʻa a nā kūpuna i hakakā ai e pale aku. Pono e komo kēia male he wā kanikau ma UK; ʻaʻohe mea e hoʻolauleʻa ai.
Ua whipsaw a ʻo Sterling i nā laulā ākea i nā pule i hala aku nei e like me ka hoʻomau ʻana o ke kūkā kamaʻilio ʻana, a ua puka aʻe nā lono o ka ʻaelike. Ma ka Pōʻalima, Kekemapa 18, kālepa ʻo GBP / USD i lalo -0.58%, piʻi i ka 2.15% i kēlā me kēia pule ma muli o ka optimism e hiki koke mai ana kahi breakthrough.
Ua haki ka pai kālā i ka 50 DMA i ka hopena o ka pule i hala akā ua kūʻai aku ma luna o ka pae mai ka mua o Nowemapa. Noho ʻo 1.3200 i kēia manawa ma kēia wahi 50 DMA a me ka ʻau o ka helu a puni ke lilo i māka i ka wā e hāneʻe ai ke kūkākūkā me ka ʻole o kekahi ʻano ʻaelike (ʻoiai hemo) i kahi.
ʻO kahi hiʻohiʻona i EUR / GBP ma kahi pakuhi o kēlā me kēia lā e hōʻike ana i ka nui o ka pae whipsawing i ka lā ʻo Kekemapa. I hoʻokahi manawa i kēia hebedoma i hāʻule ka palekana ma o ka 100 DMA. ʻO ka 50 DMA a me ka 100 DMA make-keʻa i kokoke i ka hana ʻana i loko o ka pule i ka wā e liʻiliʻi ai ka ʻawelike awelika neʻe. Ma ka Pōʻalima, Kekemapa 18, ua kūʻai aku ka EUR / GBP i ka 0.39% a i ka 6.72% YTD.
Metala makamae; ka puʻuhonua palekana ma loko o ka makahiki
Inā he mea kālepa ʻoe, ʻaʻole hiki ke mihi i nā ʻoihana āu i lawe ʻole ai i kēia makahiki. ʻE, inā mākou i hele i loko o Zoom a me Tesla i kēia makahiki i ka wā o ke iho ʻana o Malaki a kūʻai paha i ka NASDAQ 100 ma ke ʻano he peti i palekana.
ʻO ka hele ʻana i ke gula a me ke kālā lōʻihi ʻo ia ka pili pili hope loa i loko o nā mahina haunaele a mākou i ʻike ai. Ma ke ʻano he mau puʻuhonua palekana, ua piʻi nui aʻe nā PM ʻelua. Piʻi ke gula i 23% YTD a piʻi ke kālā i 43%. Hoʻohui ʻia kahi hui o nā hoʻopukapuka ʻelua, ma ke kino a ma o kāu mea kālepa paha, he pale maikaʻi loa.
Ua koi ʻia ke kālā no ka mea he $ 26 ka auneke a ma lalo o $ 12 i ka mahina ʻo Malaki. ʻO ka loaʻa ʻana he $ 1,000 o ka mea hao ka manawa kūpono he nui nā ʻAmelika (ka mea kānalua i ka ʻōnaehana) i hiki ke hoʻohana pono ʻia no ia mau kālā liʻiliʻi. Ua hoʻopukapuka paha nā mea hoʻopukapuka ʻē aʻe he nui i Bitcoin i ka manawa o 2020, i hiki i nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe i nā lā i hala iho nei, e haki ana i ka pae 23,000.
Nā hanana hopena kiʻekiʻe e nānā i waho no ka pule e hoʻomaka ana i Kēkēmapa 20
ʻO ka holo ʻana i Xmas he pule mālie ia no ka nūhou kalena waiwai nui. Ma ka Pōʻalua hoʻolaha ʻo UK i nā kiʻi GDP hou loa, wānana ʻia lākou e hele mai me ka loli ʻole mai ka hapahā i hala ma 15.5% QoQ a me -9.6% YoY.
Hāʻawi ka YoY heluhelu i ka UK ma ke ʻano he ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻokele waiwai G7 i ka wā o ka maʻi ahulau ma muli o ka GBP trillions o ke kākoʻo a 5.5 miliona mau limahana e uku ʻia nei i ka wā hoʻomaha lōʻihi.
I ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana, ʻo ka wānana no USA he 33% QoQ GDP ulu huahelu, ʻoiai hiki ke hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻia ma ke kumukūʻai hefty; ke holo nei ka Coronavirus, e luku ana ma ka awelika 3,000 poʻe i ka lā. ʻIke ka Pōʻakolu i ka paʻi ʻana o nā kauoha kūʻai kūpaʻa no USA, hoʻolilo kālā pilikino, loaʻa kālā a me nā ʻike kūʻai home hou, nā heluhelu e hāʻawi ai i kahi paʻi o ka hilinaʻi o nā mea kūʻai.
« Ua hōʻea ʻo SPX500 i kahi papa kiʻekiʻe me ka nui o ka ʻike ʻole o ka hana no ka USD slumps hou aku Komo ʻo South East UK i ka laka nui, hoʻi hou ka ʻaelike Brexit, hoʻomaka ʻo Biden e waiho i kāna ʻike »
