MAIKI WEEKLY SNAPSHOT 01/02 - 05/02 | ALOHA KAHEA EKUAHI MAU MAKAHI MAKAHI MAKAHI GDP ʻO EUROPE NO KA Q4 E HELE MAI ANA MAI O KA WAIKAI.
He pule ʻo GDP kēia pule. ʻO ka heluhelu GDP hope loa o ka hoʻokele waiwai o USA no 2020 i komo i –3.5%, ka hana ʻoi loa mai ka 1946 i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i ka hopena o WW2.
Ua hele mai ka metric Q4 no ka ulu ʻana o US GDP ma 4%, pololei ma ka wānana a hāʻule hoʻi mai ka wikiwiki o ka hōʻola ʻana o 33% COVID-19 i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma Q3 ma mua o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka US e hoʻopili i nā ʻāpana kikoʻī o ka hoʻokele waiwai (a me ke kaiāulu).
Ma ke kakahiaka Pōʻalima, ua paʻi ʻo Palani a me Kelemania i nā helu GDP bullish no Q4 2020. Ke nānā nei nā loiloi a me nā mea kālepa i kēia mau ʻikepili e hōʻike ai i ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻōla ʻia o ka Eurozone.
Ua pīhoihoi ʻo Kelemania i nā mākeke ma ka kau ʻana i kahi helu ulu ulu o 0.1% ma Q4, ʻoiai no ka 2020 ua emi ka waiwai i -5%. Ua hoʻopaʻa ʻo Palani i ka contraction -1.3% ma Q4, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o ka wānana o -4% a hele mai ana ma hope o ka moʻolelo 18% ulu ma Q3. Ua lanakila ʻo GDP ʻo Sepania i nā wanana, e hele mai ana ma 0.3% ulu no ka hapaha hope o 2020.
Eia nō naʻe, ua hōʻuluʻulu ʻo France a me Kelemania i nā lockdown pandemi hou loa i ka hopena o Kekemapa; no laila, ʻaʻole hiki i nā helu GDP hou ke kuhikuhi i kahi ola hoʻomau. E weliweli nā Q1 2021 metric ma muli o ka puni o nā lockdown hou loa ma o ka bloc kalepa a me ka nui o ka ʻāina ʻo EU. E like me UK, Palani a me Kelemania ke alo pū kekahi i nā resin lua pālua i ʻike ʻole ʻia i ka Q1 2021.
Ua heleleʻi nā papa helu kaulike o ʻEulopa i ka wā i wehe ai nā mākeke i ka Pōʻalima akā ua hōʻemi hou ʻia i ka manawa i paʻi ʻia ai ka ʻikepili o ka Eurozone GDP. Ma 9:30 am UK manawa kūʻai aku ka DAX ma lalo -0.77%, ka CAC i lalo -0.88% a me ka UK FTSE 100 ma lalo -0.69%. Ke kālepa nei ka DAX a me CAC i nā ʻāina kūlike ʻole i kēlā me kēia makahiki, ʻoiai ʻo FTSE 100 e piʻi nei ma 0.50%.
Kuhi ka wā e hiki mai ana no nā mākeke kaulike US i kahi hāʻule i ka wehe ʻana o New York i kēia ʻauinalā, ua kūʻai aku ka SPX 500 ma -1.04% a me ka NASDAQ 100 i lalo -1.53%. Inā mālama kēlā mau pae i ka mākeke hāmama, e hoʻohuli maikaʻi kēia mau mākeke US i kēlā me kēia makahiki. Pule ka SPX i lalo -2.35%, a iho ka NASDAQ -2.55%.
ʻO ke kūʻai kūʻai maʻamau o kēia hebedoma ma nā mākeke honua komohana he nui ma muli o nā kumu ʻehā.
- Pau ka hōʻuluʻulu kōkua Biden. Ke noʻonoʻo nei nā loiloi a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka i nā hana nui a ka pelekikena e pono ai e kamaʻilio i ka hoʻokele waiwai a me ke kaiāulu, ʻoiai e hāʻawi ana i nā lāʻau lapaʻau i nā haneli miliona o nā kamaʻāina US.
- ʻO nā lockdowns ʻāpana like ʻole i ʻEulopa a me USA i hoʻokau i ka loaʻa hou ʻana o kahi ola. I kēia manawa, ua haki nā hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻole e pili ana i ka hoʻolako ʻana i ka lāʻau āpau a me ka hāʻawi ʻana ma waena o UK a me EU.
- Lawe ʻia ka loaʻa kālā. Ma hope o ka ulu nui i ʻike ʻia ma 2020, ʻaʻole ia he mea kupanaha inā he nui nā mea hoʻopukapuka (ʻoiai nā mea kūʻai aku kūʻai aku) i hoʻolei i kā lākou ʻāpana a hele aku mai ka papaʻaina.
- ʻO ka piʻi nui loa i ke kālepa lā kūʻai hiki ke fizzling i waho. Ua komo ka hapa nui o nā mea kalepa ma US i ka mākeke koho ma o nā papahana gamified e like me Robin Hood's e kōkua e pahu aku i nā lāʻau (ʻoi aku nā ʻenehana ʻenehana) i nā kiʻekiʻe stratospheric. I kēia manawa ke paʻi ʻia nei nā loaʻa kālā e lilo ana i mea paʻakikī e hōʻoia i nā loiloi e pili ana i ka lakio v loaʻa i nā lakio.
Piʻi ʻo USD i loko o ka hebedoma ʻoiai e mālama ana ka aila crude i kāna loaʻa hou
Ua hoʻopaʻa ka US kālā i nā loaʻa nui a me kāna mau hoa i loko o ka pule. Ua paipai ʻia nā mea hoʻopukapuka a me nā mea kālepa ma USD e ka luna Federal Reserve ʻo Jerome Powell i nā ʻōlelo hou e pili ana i ke kulekele kālā āna i manaʻo ai e mālama. ʻAʻole hoʻonui ka Fed i ka papahana kūʻai-hoʻopaʻa / QE a hōʻike pū ʻia hoʻi ʻo Mr. Powell i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka uku paneʻe 0.25% o kēia wā ma waena o ka wā waena.
Ua piʻi ka DXY index index 0.27% i ka wā kakahiaka o ka Pōʻalima a piʻi i ka 0.57% i kēlā me kēia pule, e mālama ana i ke kūlana ma luna o ke kiʻina pae 90.00 ma 90.70. Ua iho ʻo EUR / USD -0.54% i kēlā me kēia pule ʻoiai ke kālepa kokoke ʻana i ka pālahalaha a kokoke i nā pivot pint i kēlā me kēia lā ma ka lā Friday o Lākana-ʻEulopa
Ua hāʻawi pio ʻo GBP / USD i nā loaʻa i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i loko o ka hebedoma i lalo -0.11%. I ka lā mua o ka Pōʻalima ua kūʻai ke kālā i lalo -0.38% ʻoiai ke hoʻoweliweli nei i ka haki S1.
Ua hala ka hoʻopiʻi hoʻopiʻi palekana o JPY a me CHF i kēia pule. Kū aʻe ʻo USD / JPY i ka 1.09% i kēlā me kēia pule ma luna o 0.51% i ka lā. Piʻi ka USD / CHF ma 0.53% i kēlā me kēia pule a piʻi i 0.10% i ka lā. Ua hōʻiliʻili hou ʻo USD i nā nalo hou e pili ana i nā kālā antipodean ʻelua i kēia pule; Ua iho ka AUD / USD -0.90%, a ua iho ʻo NZD / USD ma -0.22% i kēlā me kēia pule.
Ua piʻi nui ka aila maka i 2021. ʻO ka wahie no ka ulu ʻana o ka honua ma luna he 8.25% YTD a me 8.54% i kēlā me kēia mahina. Ua lohi kēlā piʻi i kēia pule, ua hōʻemi ʻia i 0.48%. Kūleʻa nā mākeke i nā waihona waihona o ka hoʻoilo a me nā hāʻawi i ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika, a e like me ka manaʻo IMF i kēia pule ʻaʻole e hoʻi ka ulu honua a hiki i ka wā e ʻōwili ʻia ai nā lāʻau āpau a hōʻoia ʻia e holo pono.
Ua ʻike nā metala makamae i nā pōmaikaʻi huikau i kēia pule. Ke kūʻai aku nei ke gula ma kahi pālahalaha no ka pule, iho -0.06% akā piʻi ka 0.76% ma ka Pōʻalima ma $ 1,853 i kēlā me kēia auneke. Ua piʻi nui ke kālā i kēia hebedoma, i 6.18% i kēlā me kēia pule a piʻi i ka 2.31% i ka Pōʻalima e kūʻai aku ma $ 26.95 no ka auneke.
Nā hanana kalena e nānā ai i ka pule e hoʻomaka ana i ka Lāpule, Ianuali 31
On Poakahi, Pepeluali 1, hoʻolaha ʻia kekahi mau PMI hana IHS Markit no ʻEulopa. ʻItalia, Palani, Kelemania a me nā wahi nui ʻo Eurozone e hōʻike i ka hāʻule ʻana i Ianuali.
Ua wānana pū ʻo Markit i ka UK e hōʻike i kahi hāʻule. Eia nō naʻe, mau ka heluhelu ʻana o nā ʻāina āpau ma luna o nā pae he 50 e hoʻokaʻawale ana i ka contraction mai ka ulu ʻana. ʻO nā ʻae no ka mōlaki, ka hōʻaiʻē mea kūʻai aku a me nā ʻikepili kumukūʻai hale e paʻi ʻia no UK ma ke kau kakahiaka, a ʻo nā heluhelu ʻekolu e pili kokoke i nā kiʻi i hala.
E paʻi ʻia nā PMI hana ISM no Kanada a me USA i ka ʻauinalā. Hiki ke hāʻule ka hoʻolilo hale ma USA i 0.5% ke paʻi ʻia ka helu o Kēkēmapa.
E nānā ʻia ke dālā Aussie i ka wā Pōʻalua ʻO ke kau ʻo Sydney e hōʻike nei i ka RBA i kāna hoʻoholo hoʻoholo uku paneʻe. Pono e hoʻololi i ka helu ma 0.1%.
Ke wehe nei ke kau Lādana-ʻEulopa, e paʻi ʻia nā kiʻi GDP o ʻItalia. Ua wānana nā loiloi i ka hāʻule o ka makahiki i ka makahiki o -5.8% a me Q2 2020 o -2.3%. Wanana ʻo Reuters i ka hoʻoliʻiliʻi o ka GDP o EA i -6.0% ma 2020 a -2.2% no Q4.
E māhelehele ʻia nā PMI lawelawe IHS Markit o Europe i ka wā Pōʻakolu ʻO Lādana-ʻEulopa kau. Palani, Sepania, ʻItalia a me ka EA e hōʻike i ka hāʻule e like me ka loiloi ma Reuters a me Bloomberg.
Loaʻa i ka PMI lawelawe UK ka deterioration koʻikoʻi loa, wānana ʻia e hele mai ma 38.8 i Ianuali, e hāʻule ana mai 49.4 i Kekemapa. Hiki i kēlā hāʻule ke hāʻule i ka waiwai o GBP me kāna mau hoa ke hoʻolaha ʻia ka ʻikepili. Wahi a nā loiloi, hiki i ka piʻi ʻana o ʻEulopa ke piʻi i 0.1% i kēlā me kēia makahiki a piʻi i 0.5% i Ianuali.
ʻO nā lawelawe Markit e heluhelu ana no ka USA pono e hōʻike i kahi hoʻomaikaʻi i Ianuali, a hele mai paha ka hui i 58, ʻoi aʻe ma mua o nā pae hoʻonui 50. Kuhi ʻia ka helu hana ADP ma 50K, kahi hoʻomaikaʻi nui me ka heluhelu ʻana o -123K ma mua. Ua hoʻohui ka mea hui Markit olakino i ka paipai ʻana i nā helu hana hiki ke hopena maikaʻi i ka waiwai o USD me kāna mau hoa.
Lawe ʻia nā PMI kūkulu Poaha no Kelemania a me UK, ʻaʻole i kū ka hana i ka wā o ka laka o UK; no laila, e hoʻomau ka heluhelu ʻana ma luna o 50 ma 54.6 e like me ka poʻe kālailai. E hōʻike ana ka UK Bank o ʻEnelani i ka hoʻoholo hoʻoholo uku paneʻe hou loa a ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo inā he hoʻololi i ka papahana QE. Pono e hoʻololi i nā pilikia pili kulekele ʻelua.
Hāʻawi ʻia e ka BLS i ka Pōʻalima awakea ka helu hoʻopiʻi hana ʻole no kēlā me kēia pule no ka US, ua hāʻule nā heluhelu hou loa ma lalo o 900K i kēlā me kēia pule, a ke lana nei ka manaʻo e hoʻomau ka hōʻike ʻana i ka emi. Wahi a nā loiloi, pono nā kauoha o ka hale hana e hōʻike i nā hōʻailona o ka hoʻomaikaʻi; e piʻi ka ana mai ka 1% a i ka 1.7% no Ianuali. ʻO ka manaʻolana i hoʻokumu ʻia e kēia mau helu ʻelua i hiki ke hopena maikaʻi i ka waiwai o USD.
On Pōʻalima e loaʻa iā mākou ka ʻikepili NFP ʻelua o 2021. Ma hope o kā Ianuali helu i loko o nā lā kau o Kēkēmapa, e ʻoiaʻiʻo ʻo Pepeluali e pili ana i nā hana i hana ʻia i ka hoʻokele waiwai nui o ka honua. Ua wānana nā loiloi i nā hana he 80K wale nō i hana ʻia, e hoʻomaikaʻi ana mai ka haʻalulu -140K mau poho hana i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma mua. Pono ka helu hana ʻole a ka US ma 6.7%, ʻoiai e hāʻule ʻo Kanada mai 8.8% a i 8.7%. ʻO nā ʻikepili o nā hale hana hou loa mai Kelemania, ke kaulike o ke kālepa ʻana o Palani, nā kūʻai kūʻai liʻiliʻi a ʻItalia, a me nā kumukūʻai o ka hale o UK (e like me ka panakō Nationwide) he mau heluhelu ia e hiki ke hoʻopili i ka waiwai o EUR a me GBP inā e hihi a hoka paha nā hopena i nā wānana a nā loiloi.
« Ua ola ʻo Wall Street me ka hōʻemi loa ʻana o ka hopena ma ka US o -3.5%, ka heluhelu ʻoi loa mai nā 1940s E nānā nā mea hoʻopukapuka hopohopo a me nā mea kālepa no nā ʻōkalakala kulekele kālā mai ka Fed, BoE a me RBA e hoʻomalu i ka manaʻo »
