E nānā pono ʻia nā helu kumukūʻai hou loa no Kina a me USA, i ka hebedoma kalepa mua piha o 2018.
ʻO ka pule kalepa mua piha o 2018 ʻike i ka hoʻi i nā hanana kalena hoʻokele waiwai kuʻuna e hopena ana i kā mākou: FX, ke kaulike a me nā mākeke kūʻai. He pule hana nui kēia no ka ʻike Kina, USA a me ʻEulopa, me nā helu hoʻonui he nui, no Kina a me USA nō kekahi. E kālailai pono ʻia nā helu hana hou loa no ka UK, no nā ʻōuli o ka nawaliwali hoʻohālikelike i ka hoʻokele waiwai e kū ana i mua o Brexit i ka hoʻomaka o ka makahiki 2019. E paʻi ʻia nā kiʻi hou a lawe aku a Kelemania, me ka ulu o ka hana ʻana i nā ʻoihana, e nānā pono ʻia ma muli o i ko Kelemania ʻāpana e like me ka ʻenekini ulu o ʻEulopa. E hōʻike ʻia nā ana PPI like ʻole no USA, hiki ke hāʻawi i nā hōʻailona e pili ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana o nā kumukūʻai i ka hoʻokele waiwai USA.
Lāpule e hoʻomaka ana i ka pule me ka helu o nā waihona mālama haole hou loa no Kina, ke kali nei no kahi hāʻule iki i $ 3,115b i Kekemapa. Ma ka lā Lā ke kakahiaka loaʻa iā mākou ka YoY metric hoʻokomo kālā hou loa mai Kina, i kēia manawa ma 90.7% ʻaʻohe mea i kali ʻia no kahi loli nui. Ua hōʻike ʻia nā kauoha o ka hale hana Kelemania i kahi mea ulu ulu ulu o 6.9% a hiki i Nowemapa 2017, ke manaʻo ʻia no ka mālama ʻana i kēia helu. Ke holo nei ʻo Swiss CPI ma 0.8%, kahi helu i hiki ʻole ke loli ke hoʻokuʻu ʻia ke kumukūʻai o Kekemapa. Hoʻohui ʻia me nā kikoʻī waihona ʻike hou loa mai nā panakō ʻo Switzerland, hiki i nā helu ʻelua ke hopena i ka waiwai o ka Swiss franc, inā e nalo ana nā metric a i ʻole nā wānana maikaʻi loa.
Hoʻopuka ʻia kahi hui o nā heluhelu hilinaʻi no ka Eurozone ma ka Pōʻakahi; ka mea kūʻai mai, ʻoihana, ʻoihana a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka, ʻoiai ke kūlana koʻikoʻi ma ke ʻano he hopena haʻahaʻa, e nānā pono ʻia ka heluhelu ʻana. ʻO nā kūʻai kūʻai kūʻai aku ma ka Eurozone i hāʻule i loko o ka ʻāina maikaʻi ʻole i Nowemapa, pono ka heluhelu ʻana o Kēkēmapa a loaʻa ke kīkē i ka hopena o ka piʻi ʻana o YoY, ma luna o ka 0.4% i hoʻopaʻa ʻia no Nowemapa. Ke huli nei ka nānā i ka USA ka heluhelu nui ʻana o ka lā ka hōʻaiʻē mea kūʻai aku; wanana e hāʻule i $ 18b i Nowemapa mai $ 20.5b i ʻOkakopa. E hoʻonui paha ka helu o ka mahina aʻe, ma muli o ka wā kūʻai o ka wā hoʻomaha.
Pōʻalua Hoʻomaka me ke kūʻai aku i ka hale mai NZ, i hāʻule e ka mea kupaianaha -8.9% YoY a hiki i Kekemapa. Ua wānana maikaʻi ʻole nā loaʻa kālā kālā Kepani i Nowemapa ma -0.1%. Me nā loaʻa kālā i 0.6% YoY. ʻO ka hilinaʻi o nā mea kūʻai aku ma Iapana e wānana ʻia e piʻi liʻiliʻi i 45. Ua hoʻonui nui ʻia nā ʻae o nā hale o Austra YoY, a piʻi i ka 18.4% a hiki i Nowemapa, ʻo ka helu hou loa no Kēkēmapa e manaʻo ʻole e lohi nui. ʻO ka heluhelu ʻana o ka hana ʻole ma Suisena ma Kēkēmapa ka wānana e noho loli ʻole ma 3.2%, ua hāʻule nui ke kūʻai aku kūʻai aku ma Switzerland i Nowemapa, ma lalo -3%, kahi manawa kūpaʻa i manaʻo ʻia.
Ua hāʻule hoʻohoka ʻole ʻia ka hana Kelemania i Nowemapa e -1.4%, a me 2.7% YoY, ke manaʻo ʻia nei kahi hoʻomaikaʻi. Kelemānia ke kaulike kālepa ʻo Nowemapa a me nā koena o ka waihona o kēia manawa e wānana ʻia e hoʻomaikaʻi ma luna o ka € 18b ʻOkakopa heluhelu. Hoʻopuka pū ʻia nā anana kūwaho a lawe mai no Kelemania. ʻO ka helu o ka Eurozone nele hana hou i kēia manawa ma 8.8%, ʻo ka mea ʻoi loa a hiki i kēia lā o Nowemapa pae i wānana ʻia e noho loli ʻole.
Ma ka Pōʻakolu ua paʻi ʻia kahi hui o nā ʻike Kina, me nā hōʻaiʻē i hana ʻia ma Yuan i Kēkēmapa a me ka helu CPI hou loa, i kēia manawa ma 1.7% ka wānana no kahi piʻi i 1.9%. ʻO ka hopena kiʻekiʻe loa ka hopena o ka ʻike Kina i ka waiwai kaulike a me nā mākeke FX i kēia mau lā, ke ʻole he mea haʻalulu ke kiʻi i hoʻokuʻu ʻia. Ke neʻe nei ka nānā ʻana i ka wehe ʻia o nā mākeke ʻEulopa, ua paʻi ʻia nā minuke no ka ECB pili kālā / kulana hoʻonohonoho hoʻonohonoho hālāwai, e nānā nā mea hoʻopukapuka i ka ʻikepili no nā alakaʻi i mua, e pili ana i ka hōʻemi ʻana o ka APP (polokalamu kūʻai waiwai). a ma luna o nā hoʻohiki i hana ʻia ai, a i ʻole nā kuhi e pili ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ka uku paneʻe ma 2018.
He kau hana nui loa ia no ka ʻikepili o UK ma ka Pōʻakolu, nā helu ma: nā ʻoihana, nā hana a me nā huahana kūkulu e hōʻike a lohi paha i nā kānalua a me nā ʻino o Brexit. Hoʻolaha pū ʻia nā deficit kaulike kālepa no Nowemapa no ka UK, e like me ka helu o Kēkēmapa ʻo NIESR hou loa no ka ulu ʻana o UK GDP, ʻo 0.5% QoQ ka manaʻo mua.
ʻO ka Pōʻakolu kahi lā hana nui loa no nā paʻi a me nā hanana kalena waiwai o USA. lawe mai i nā kumu kūʻai, nā kumu kūʻai hoʻolilo, nā waihona nui a me nā kūʻai kūleʻa ʻana. E hoʻopuka pū ʻia nā mea hana hou aila a me ke kinoea a hiki i Ianuali 5th a me ka WTI e hōʻino ana i $ 61 no kēlā me kēia barela no ka manawa mua mai ka 2015, e nānā pono ʻia ka helu ʻenekini. E haʻi aku kahi luna hoʻomalu o USA Fed Bullard i kahi haʻiʻōlelo i ka nānā waiwai o USA, ma St. Louis.
Poaha ʻike ʻia nā hōʻike i nā kiʻi kūʻai aku kūʻai aku no Nowemapa hou loa no Nūhōlani i paʻi ʻia, i manaʻo ʻia e hāʻawi i kahi heluhelu e like me ka 0.5% pae ulu i hōʻike ʻia ma ʻOkakopa. E kū ana nā mea kūʻai aku Kepanī hou loa i ke kakahiaka Pōʻahā, a ma hope iho ua paʻi ʻia nā hōʻike alakaʻi alakaʻi a me nā mea kuʻina no Japan. ʻO ka heluhelu GDP makahiki Kelemania no Kēkēmapa e wānana nei e noho loli ʻole, mai ka heluhelu hou 1.9%, ʻoiai ʻo ka hana ʻenehana Eurozone YoY ulu ulu no Nowemapa e pili kokoke ana i ka 3.7% i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma mua. E hāʻawi aku ka UK BoE i kāna kūlana hōʻaiʻē hou loa a me nā ana o nā kuleana, e hoʻopili ʻia nā loiloi mākeke a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka ma o ka paʻi ʻana a hoʻolohe pono i ka ʻike, no nā alakaʻi alakaʻi i mua e pili ana i ka ʻike ʻana o ka panakō kikowaena i ka hopena o Brexit ma ka hoʻokele waiwai UK. he aha nā ana e hiki ai i ka panakō ke hana e hōʻemi i nā mea i hōʻino ʻia.
Mai USA USA e loaʻa iā mākou nā mea hou loa, nā helu PPI like ʻole, e hōʻike ana inā e kūkulu ana ka USA i kekahi kaomi ulu a hoʻonui paha i ka hoʻonui ʻia o ke kumukūʻai o nā lawe mai, no laila e hoʻonui ana i nā kumukūʻai hana. E hoʻokuʻu ʻia ka ʻikepili no ka hana ʻole ʻole a me ka hana mau ʻole, a ua hāʻawi ka luna Fed ʻo Dudley i kahi haʻi ʻōlelo e pili ana i ka ʻike hoʻokele waiwai holoʻokoʻa no USA.
Ma ka lā Pōʻalima kakahiaka, i ka wā ʻĀkia, paʻi ʻia nā kiʻi hou loa o Kina e pili ana i: nā lawe mai, nā mea hoʻolilo a me ke kaulike kālepa no Kekemapa. Hoʻopuka ʻia kahi rakit o ka ʻikepili ma ka hoʻokele waiwai USA ma ke awakea, me nā kiʻi CPI hou loa, i kēlā me kēia mahina a me ka makahiki. Ke holo nei i kēia manawa ma 2.2% a me 1.7% (me ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻole i ka meaʻai a me ka ikehu), e nānā pono ʻia kēia mau helu e hoʻoholo inā hoʻonui ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka wā pōkole, e paipai i ka FOMC / Fed e hoʻonui i nā uku ma mua o ka mea i wanana ʻia i ka makahiki. e hāʻule i 2018% i Kēkēmapa, mai 0.3% i Nowemapa. E paʻi ʻia nā ʻikepili inventories ʻoihana a pani ʻia ka pule kālepa me ka helu o ka rig Baker Hughes, ma lalo o ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka nānā ʻana, no ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai aila WTI ma nā pule i hala iho nei.
« E hoʻomau ka hoʻokuʻu NFP mua o 2018 i ka loli hou o ka nūhou waiwai waiwai nui ma USA. Haki ka papa kuhikuhi Dow Jones 25,000, UK FTSE 100 pani pū ʻia hoʻi ma ke kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe, piʻi ke gula i ʻehā mau mahina ke kiʻekiʻe, ʻike ʻia nā euro i nā kau kuʻikahi me nā hoa nui. »
