Nā Manaʻo Kūkākūkā Forex - Baltic Dry Index

ʻO ka papa inoa hoʻomaloʻo Baltic a me nā kiʻi e lawe mai ai Kina

Feb 10 • Nā manaʻo ʻōlelo mākeke • 11099 Nānā • 1 Comment ma ka Papa Kuhikuhi maloʻo ʻo Baltic a me nā kiʻi e lawe mai ai Kina

ʻO ka papa inoa hoʻomaloʻo Baltic a me nā helu hoʻoiho Kina e haʻi i ka moʻolelo e makemake ʻole ka hapanui o nā economists e hoʻolohe

Inā aia kahi ʻikepili i kaulana a kuhikuhi ʻia i hāʻule ma mua o 60% makahiki i ka makahiki ʻaʻole wale nō e hopohopo nui ke kaiāulu hoʻopukapuka, e catatonic ka pāpāho nui i kāna pane. Hōʻike nā poʻo inoa i kahi hanana 'hopena o nā lā'. ʻO ka uwa, kahi cataclysm o nā hanana e hiki mai ana ke wehe aʻe, e kuli ana…

ʻAʻole i heleleʻi nā papa kuhikuhi nui, mahalo nui ʻia e kēlā mau kālā i kēlā me kēia makahiki i ka makahiki I ka hoʻomanaʻo hoʻomanaʻo ʻana, a i ʻole ka hāʻule ʻana o 2008-2009 a i ʻole ka hoʻoponopono hou loa i ka hapaha hope o 2011. ʻO ka mea kokoke loa a mākou i ʻike ai i ka wā o ka pilikia ʻaiʻē ʻo Eurozone / ʻo ia ka hoʻoponopono ʻo Athens hoʻololi, i hāʻule e circa 50% makahiki i kēlā me kēia makahiki a ʻoiai ʻo 30% ka hoʻonui ʻana mai ka haʻahaʻa o Ian 10 i hala iho nei. Akā ʻo ka ASE, me ka nānā nui ʻana i Athens, hiki ʻole ke nānā ʻia ma ke ʻano he "papa kuhikuhi nui".

He aha inā inā ua hāʻule ka barometer i ʻike ʻia o ke olakino hoʻokele waiwai i kahi 60% o ka makahiki i ka makahiki, e like me ka SPX a i ʻole ka FTSE 100? Ke neʻe nei i kahi manaʻoʻiʻo a me nā kumumanaʻo ʻaʻole nā ​​mākeke nui ke kuhikuhi olakino olakino pololei i hala ma mua, ma muli o nā kulekele zirp, nā bailout, nā hoʻopakele, nā tarp a me nā papahana hoʻoliʻiliʻi nui e hana ana i kahi boom wahaheʻe o ka honua i pili ʻole i ka ʻoihana waiwai. inā ʻeha nā ʻikepili nui i kēlā hāʻule ʻana ʻo ka hopena he mea kupaianaha ia.

Aia hoʻokahi papa kuhikuhi i mālama nui ʻia e nā economists, nā mea haʻi ʻōlelo mākeke a me nā loiloi mākeke, a no ka mea, no ka mea, ua hoʻololi ʻia nā mākeke nui e ka pauma ʻana o nā pūʻulu hoʻopakele, hōʻike ia i kahi ʻano ʻoiaʻiʻo o nā kūlana kūʻai honua nei e like me ke kumu. ma nā kia o ka hoʻokele waiwai o ka honua holoʻokoʻa e like me ka hoʻolako a me ka koi, lawe mai a lawe aku, ʻike ʻia ʻo ka inoa ʻo Baltic Dry Index.

He manawa kūpono a kūpono hoʻi e ʻōlelo i kēia papa kuhikuhi i hāʻawi ʻia i nā helu i hoʻokuʻu ʻia i kēia kakahiaka mai Kina e pili ana i ka lawe aku a me nā helu lawe mai; Ua emi iho ka hana kālepa a Kina i Ianuali i ka manawa like i hoʻokahi makahiki ma mua, e hoʻonui ana i ka hopohopo no ka mea ʻoi aku ka nui o ka noi o nā ʻāina ʻē i ka hoʻokele waiwai i hoʻolilo ʻia.

ʻO nā huahelu i hoʻokuʻu ʻia i ka Pōʻalima e ka ʻoihana dute e hōʻike ana i ka hōʻemi ʻana o nā mea lawe mai i ka 15.3 pakeneka i $ 122.6 biliona, ʻoiai ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia nā mea hoʻouka i 0.5 pakeneka i $ 149.9 biliona. ʻO ia ka ʻike kalepa ʻoi loa ma hope o ka makahiki 2009. Ua piʻi aʻe ke koina kalepa pili aupuni ma Kina i $ 27.3 biliona no Ianuali, ke kiʻekiʻena kiʻekiʻe i nā mahina ʻeono. Hōʻike nā mea loiloi kālā he nui i ka hopena o ke kālepa ʻana o Ianuali e hōʻike nei i ka lohi o ka hoʻokele waiwai nui ʻelua o ka honua, no ka nui o ka nui o ka hana o ka US ma mua a me ka pilikia o ka ʻaiʻē ʻo Eurozone.

Ua hōʻemi ʻia ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai ʻulaʻula a Kina i ka ulu ulu he 8.9, ka helu haʻahaʻa loa i loko o ʻelua a me ka hapa makahiki. Ua wānana ka International Monetary Fund i ka 8.2 pakeneka e ulu nei no Kina i ka makahiki 2012, akā ua aʻo ʻia hiki ke ʻoki ʻia ka helu i ka hapalua inā e ulu ana nā pilikia pili kālā o ʻEulopa.

ʻO kā Kina ʻoihana hoʻokele mua i hoʻokele waiwai he kuhi waiwai 'honua kahiko' maoli ia. Hoʻokumu ʻia ia i ke kālepa kuʻuna, ua ulu ka ulu home ulu nui i ʻike i kahi make wai epic no nā mea lawe mai mai nā ʻāina e like me ʻAukekulia. ʻOiai ua hoʻonui ʻia nā lawelawe kālā, ʻo ia hoʻi ma ke kolone mua o UK o Hong Kong, ua hoʻokumu ʻo boom China i kahi kalepa honua maoli e koi ana i ka lawe nui ʻana mai o nā mea maka. Ua hāʻule kēlā mau mea lawe mai ma kahi o 15% makahiki i ka makahiki i kumu e hopohopo nui ai, inā paha e ʻike ʻia ʻo Kina he pivot nui kahi e kaulike ai a ulu pono nā waiwai ʻē aʻe.

Eia nō naʻe, hiki ke nānā ʻia nā kiʻi kalepa ma ke ʻano he mau lagging, eia nō naʻe ua hele a lōʻihi ka manaʻo o nā luna Kina i kēia kakahiaka e hoʻokūkū i ka wā nui o ka wā hoʻomaha a me ka kalena lunar i nā helu. ʻO ka hoʻokele waiwai, hoʻolako / koi hoʻokomo / hoʻopulapula loop he mea hoihoi i ka ʻike o ka IMF a ʻoiai ʻo ia ka 'kaikuahine' ʻo ka hui a ka World Bank i ʻōlelo ai e hiki ke lilo i ka ulu ʻana, mai 8.3%, inā hoʻomau a piʻi paha ka pilikia o ka Eurozone. Eia nō naʻe, he ʻāpana wale nō kēia o ka pilikia o ka Eurozone, hiki i ka hāʻule nui ʻana o nā mea i lawe mai mai ke kūkala i nā hanana hopohopo hou aʻe no ka hoʻokele waiwai Kina home, hiki ke hoʻopau koke ʻia ka noi nui no nā mea maka a hiki i kēia kū koke ʻana o ka ua wānana ʻia nā buffers inā mālama mākou e nānā i loko o nā kahawai pouli o ka ʻikepili hoʻokele waiwai kahi e makaʻu ai ka poʻe he nui.

Papa Kuhikihi Malolo Baletika
ʻO ka helu ʻo Balstic Dry Index (BDI) kahi helu i hoʻopuka ʻia i kēlā me kēia lā e ka London-based Baltic Exchange. ʻAʻole i kaupalena ʻia i nā ʻāina ʻo Baltic Sea, nā helu kuhikuhi i nā kumukūʻai o ka hoʻouna honua ma nā wahi holoʻokoʻa o nā ukana nui maloo.

Hāʻawi ka papa kuhikuhi "i kahi loiloi i ke kumukūʻai o ka neʻe ʻana i nā mea maka nui ma ke kai. Ke lawe nei i nā ala hoʻouna 26 i ana ʻia ma ka palapala manawa a me ka holo ʻana, uhi ka papa kuhikuhi i Handymax, Panamax, a me Capesize nā mea lawe maloʻo nui e halihali ana i nā huahana like me ka lanahu, ka hao a me ka palaoa. "

 

Koʻo Pūnaewele Forex Pūnaewele Live Forex Kālā Waiwai

 

Pehea It na hana
I kēlā me kēia lā hana, hāʻawi kahi panela o nā moku kūʻai moku honua i ko lākou ʻike i ke kumukūʻai ukana o kēia manawa ma nā ala like ʻole i ka Baltic Exchange. Pono nā ala e lilo i lunamakaʻāinana, ʻo ia hoʻi ka nui o ka nui i mea no ka mākeke holoʻokoʻa.

A laila kaupaona ʻia kēia mau helu helu no ka hana ʻana i nā BDI āpau a me nā hōʻike Supramax, Panamax, a me Capesize. ʻO nā kumu BDI i nā nui ʻehā o ka oceangoing moku lawe maloo nui:

Aia nā BDI i nā loiloi ala ma nā kumu ʻelua o “USD i uku ʻia i kēlā me kēia tona i hāpai ʻia” (ʻo ia hoʻi ma mua o ka unuhi ʻia ʻana o ka wahie, ke awa a me nā koina hilinaʻi holo moana) a me “USD uku ʻia i kēlā me kēia lā” (ʻo ia hoʻi ma hope o ka unuhi ʻia ʻana o nā koina pili i ka huakaʻi. Nā uku loaʻa like me ka palapala ʻāina ”). ʻO ka wahie (= "Bunkers") ke kumukūʻai holo moana nui loa a neʻe me ke kumukūʻai ʻaila crude. I nā wā e piʻipiʻi nui ai ke kumukūʻai bunker, ma laila e neʻe aku ai ka BDI ma mua o ka loaʻa kālā o nā mea moku.

Hiki ke kiʻi ʻia i ka papa kuhikuhi ma ke kau inoa kau inoa mai ka Baltic Exchange a me nā ʻike kālā nui a me nā lawelawe nūhou e like me Thomson Reuters a me Bloomberg LP.

No ke aha e heluhelu ai nā economists a me nā mea kūʻai waiwai kūʻai
ʻO ka pololei, ana ka papa kuhikuhi i ke koi no ka hiki ke hoʻouna i ka hiki ke hoʻohālikelike i ka hāʻawi ʻana o nā mea lawe maloʻo maloʻo. ʻOkoʻa ka noi no ka hoʻouna ʻana me ka nui o nā ukana e kūʻai aku ʻia ana a hoʻoneʻe ʻia paha i nā mākeke like ʻole (hoʻolako a me nā noi).

ʻO ka lako o nā moku ukana he paʻa a paʻa ʻole hoʻi - ʻelua mau makahiki i ke kūkulu ʻana i moku hou, a he pipiʻi loa nā moku e lawe i waho o ke kaʻina e like me ka hoʻokele ʻana o nā mokulele i nā mokulele i makemake ʻole ʻia ma nā wao akua. No laila, hiki i nā piʻi marginal i ka noi ke hoʻokuʻi wikiwiki i ka papa kuhikuhi, a ʻo ka hōʻemi noi koi hiki ke hāʻule wikiwiki i ka papa kuhikuhi. e laʻa “inā he 100 kāu mau moku e hoʻokūkū ana no 99 mau ukana, e iho ka helu, inā inā he 99 mau moku e hoʻokūkū ana no 100 mau ukana, e piʻi ka helu. I nā huaʻōlelo ʻē aʻe, hiki i nā hoʻololi liʻiliʻi o nāʻauwaʻa liʻiliʻi a me nā mea loiloi hiki ke hāʻule i nā helu… ”Hoʻonohonoho kīnā ʻia ka papa kuhikuhi i ka lako o ka honua a me ka noi no nā mea i lawe ʻia i luna o nā mea lawe maloʻo maloʻo, e like me nā mea kūkulu hale, nā lānahu, nā aila metala, a me nā hua.

Mele Kalikimaka
Ma ka lā Mei 20, 2008, ua hōʻea ka papa kuhikuhi i kona kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe moʻoʻōlelo mai kona hoʻolauna ʻia ʻana i ka makahiki 1985, e piʻi ana i nā helu 11,793. ʻO ka hapalua makahiki ma hope, ma ka 5 Kekemapa 2008, ua iho ka papa kuhikuhi ma o 94%, i nā helu 663, ka mea haʻahaʻa loa mai ka makahiki 1986; ʻoiai ma ka 4 Pepeluali 2009 ua loaʻa hou kahi wahi nalowale, hoʻi i 1,316. ​​ʻO kēia mau haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa e neʻe weliweli kokoke i nā koina hana o nā moku, wahie, a me nā luina.

Ua hōʻea ʻia ʻo Multi Decade New Low ma Feb 3rd 2012
I ka manawa o 2009, ua piʻi ka papa kuhikuhi i 4661, akā ua iho i lalo ma 1043 i Pepeluali, 2011, ma hope o ka hoʻomau ʻana o ka lawe ʻana o nā moku hou a me nā kahe wai ma Australia. ʻOiai e hoʻi hou ana i 2000 i ʻOkakopa 7, e Pepeluali 3, 2012, ua hana ka papa kuhikuhi i kahi makahiki he mau makahiki he ʻumi mau makahiki ma kahi haʻahaʻa o 647 ma ke ʻano hoʻomau o nā moku ipu a hoʻemi i nā kauoha o ka hao a me ka lanahu.

I kēia manawa he 60.01% ka papa kuhikuhi i lalo o ka makahiki a me 36.36% i lalo i nā pule ʻeono mua o 2012. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o ka loaʻa ʻana o nā makahiki he XNUMX mau makahiki i lalo i ka mua o Pepeluali ʻo ia kekahi o nā helu helu hoʻokele waiwai nui i hōʻike ʻia i kēia makahiki. Eia nō naʻe, ʻoiai he nui nā mea haʻi ʻōlelo i ka pāpāho mainstream i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma nā papa kuhikuhi mākeke nui e hoʻomau ʻia kēia mea hana waiwai nui i ka nānā ʻia.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

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