Ua hāʻule ʻo GPB / USD ma ke ʻano he ʻaelike ʻo UK GDP a ʻaʻole holomua ke aupuni UK ma Brexit
ʻO ke keʻena helu helu UK, ʻo ONS, i hāʻawi i kahi helu haʻalulu no ka hoʻokele waiwai o UK ma ke kakahiaka Pōʻakahi. Ua hele mai ka ulu GDP ma -0.4% mahina ma ka mahina no Kekemapa, e nalo ana i ka manaʻolana o ka ulu 0.00%. Pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia i ka mōʻaukala, i ka hoʻokele waiwai e like me ko Britain; kalaiwa ʻia e nā lawelawe a me ka hoʻohana ʻana, ʻo ka mahina hope loa a me ka hāhā o ka makahiki ka maikaʻi ma ke ʻano o ka ulu ʻana. Akā ua hele mai ka hapahā ma 0.2%, ua nalowale ka wānana a hāʻule mai 0.6% i Q3. Wahi a nā ʻoihana ʻokoʻa, ua ulu ka ulu makahiki ma waena o 1.3% a me 1.4%, kaukaʻi ʻia. Ua hōʻoia ʻo Reuters iā ia ma 1.3%, e hāʻule ana mai 1.6%.
Ua hele ke keʻena pili aupuni lehulehu o UK i kahi ʻano ulia pōpilikia, e hōʻike ana ua kū wale ka ulu ʻana, e like me ka mea i hana ʻia ma ʻEulopa holoʻokoʻa. Eia nō naʻe, ke nānā nei ma lalo o ka pāpale i ka pae o ka ʻikepili, he kumu no ka pū waikaua. Ua hāʻule nā mea hoʻolilo, ʻoiai ka paona nāwaliwali. ʻO ka hoʻokomo kālā ʻoihana -3.7% o ka makahiki i ka makahiki a ʻo ka hana ʻana i kēia manawa i ke kūleʻa, ma hope o ka hāʻawi ʻana i ʻeono mau mahina i ka papa o nā heluhelu maikaʻi ʻole. ʻO ka hana ʻana i ka ʻenehana a me nā huahana e kūkulu nei ke lele pū nei me ka recession. ʻO ka nui o kēia mau ana hoʻohālikelike, i hoʻohui ʻia i kahi hoʻonohonoho weliweli o IHS Markit PMI i paʻi ʻia i ka pule i hala, he hōʻailona ia o kahi hoʻokele waiwai e hele ana i ke kūleʻa, a i ʻole ke kū maikaʻi loa i Q3-Q4 o 2019.
Ua hina ʻo Sterling me ka hapa nui o kāna mau hoa like ma nā wā kālepa o ka Pōʻakahi; Ua hoʻopau ʻo GPB / USD i ka lā e kālepa ana iā 0.67% ma 1.286, e haki ana ma o S3, e hoʻopau ana i nā loaʻa i loaʻa mai ke kau waena o Ianuali, ʻoiai e neʻe ana mai ka umekaumaha o ka ʻau 1.300 a me 200 DMA. Ua kūʻai aku ʻo EUR / GBP i ka 0.27% a ke kūʻai pālahalaha nei i kēlā me kēia pule, ma 0.878. ʻO Versus AUD, NZD a me CHF, hoʻohālikelike ʻia ka sterling i kahi ʻano like o ka hāʻule. ʻOiai ʻo ka ʻike kaumaha, ua pani ka UK FTSE 100 iā 0.82% i ka lā. Ma muli o ka hapanui o nā ʻoihana i ka papa kuhikuhi ma USA no ka hoʻokumu a me ke kālepa ʻana i nā kālā, he hopena maikaʻi kā ka hāʻule ʻana o ka sterling.
Ua hōʻike hou ʻia ka hemahema o ka holomua e pili ana iā Brexit, ʻoiai e kūkala pinepine ana ka mea kūkākūkā o EU ʻo Michel Barnier, me ka maopopo ʻole, ʻaʻole e wehe ʻia nā ʻōlelo o ka ʻaelike haʻalele no ke kūkā hou ʻana. ʻOiai ʻo kēia, ua kau ke aupuni Tory i ko lākou mau manamana lima i loko o ko lākou pepeiao, me ke kuhina nui ʻo Mei e hoʻomau nei i kahi moʻolelo e like me ka hiki ke hoʻomau i ke kamaʻilio. Pono ka Pelekikena UK e hoʻopaʻapaʻa hou iā Brexit i ka Pōʻakolu 13th, i ka manawa i wānana ʻia ʻo Mei e noi aku i ka pāremata no ka manawa hou aku, i ka wā e hoʻokokoke koke ana ka lā palena pau 29 Malaki. Me ka nūpepa liʻiliʻi a ʻEulopa, a i ʻole Eurozone i paʻi ʻia ma ka Pōʻakahi, nā hōʻike nui o ka Eurozone; ʻO France's CAC a me Kelemānia DAX, pani ʻia ka lā ma kahi o 1.0%. Ua pani ka EUR / USD i ka lā ma kahi o 0.46% ma 1.127, ʻoiai ka euro i hāʻawi i ka waiwai i ka hapa nui o kāna mau hoa.
Ua ʻike ʻo indices USA i nā waiwai kalepa hui like i ka wā o ke kau ʻo New York ma ka Pōʻakahi, ua pani ka DJIA -0.21%, ka SPX ma luna o 0.07% a me ka NASDAQ piʻi aʻe ma 0.13%. ʻO ke specter o ke kamaʻilio kalepa ʻana, i hoʻonohonoho ʻia e mālama ʻia i kēia pule me Kina, kaupaona ʻia i ka hoʻoholo ʻana o nā mea hoʻopukapuka kaulike a me ka manaʻo, ʻoiai e ʻimi ana nā mea hoʻopukapuka i ka hōʻoluʻolu ma ke awa palekana o USD, i ala aʻe me ka hapa nui o kona mau hoa. ʻO ka mana o (ka mea i ʻike ʻia ma ke ʻano) he ʻōlelo dovish e ka FOMC a me ka noho Fed ʻo Jerome Powell, ke mālama lākou i ka helu kī ma 2.5%, me he mea lā ua mae. ʻO ka lā palena pau o Malaki 2, no ka hoʻokumu ʻana o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i nā kumukūʻai he 25% no $ 200b o ka lawe ʻia mai o Kina i ʻAmelika. ʻO ke kōkua pololei ʻana mai Trump, e hoʻololi paha i ka impasse.
ʻO nā hanana hopena kiʻekiʻe e pono ai nā poʻe kalepa FX e hoʻoliʻiliʻi no nā kau o ka Pōʻalua, e hui pū me nā haʻiʻōlelo a Mark Carney ke kiaʻāina o ka panakō o ʻEnelani ma 13:00 pm UK manawa a ʻo Jerome Powell, ka luna o ka panakō waena ʻo USA ʻo Fed, ma 17: 45pm UK manawa. ʻAʻole i hoʻokuʻu ʻia ka ʻike o kā lākou haʻiʻōlelo, nui ka laulā o nā kumuhana hiki iā lākou ke uhi.
Me Mr. Carney nā kumuhana o: hoʻonui kālā, hiki ke kūkā kamaʻilio ʻia nā mea ulu hou loa o UK GDP a me Brexit. Me Mr. Powell hiki i ke kumuhana ke komo pū me nā hoʻopaʻapaʻa kalepa e hoʻomau nei me Kina, ke piʻi nei ka manaʻo o ka hoʻonui hou ʻana o ka uku paneʻe i ka manawa o 2019, ka heleleʻi ʻana o ka honua āpau a me nā metric e pili ana i ka hoʻokele waiwai USA, ʻaʻole i hiki mai e like me ka wanana. ʻO ka mea maʻamau, i ka wā o ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā haʻiʻōlelo ʻelua i kā lākou mau pepeiao, nā kuleana a nā kānaka ʻelua e, e hele mai ma lalo o kahi nānā.
« Hoʻonohonoho ka RBNZ e hoʻolaha i ka paʻa o ka helu OCR ma ke kakahiaka o Pōʻakolu, pono naʻe nā mea kālepa FX e kau i ka manaʻo nui ma ke kamaʻilio nūpepa me ke Kiaʻāina ʻo Adrian Orr. Hōʻuluʻulu nā mākeke ākea e like me ka hōʻoki ʻia ʻana o USA USA a hōʻea ʻo Trump i Xi no ka hālāwai o USA me Kina »
