MAIKI WEEKLY SNAPSHOT 14/12 - 18/12 | Ua piʻi aku ʻo EUR / GBP i kahi kiʻekiʻe ʻaʻole i ʻike ʻia mai Kepakemapa ʻoiai ʻo Brexit e kamaʻilio kūkā ana i luna o nā pōhaku
Aia kekahi mau manawa inā kālepa ʻoe i ka forex, nā helu kikoʻī a me nā huahana ke uhi ʻia nā pilikia macroeconomic i nā hanana i helu ʻia ma kāu kalena waiwai. Pono ke kūlana i kēia manawa e like me ka wikiwiki i kāu mākau loiloi koʻikoʻi a me ka ʻike e pono e hoʻonui i ka ʻikepili, nā hoʻoholo a me nā hanana āu e ʻike ai ma ka kalena o kēlā me kēia lā.
ʻElua mau pilikia koʻikoʻi e hoʻomalu nei i kā mākou ʻāina kālepa, ka pandan swan ʻeleʻele a me Brexit. E like me kāu e ʻike ai, ke ʻano maoli o nā hanana swan ʻeleʻele e hōʻoia ʻaʻole ʻoe e ʻike e hele mai ana. E noʻonoʻo i kēia manawa i ka makahiki i hala, ʻaʻole ka huaʻōlelo "Covid 19" i ka lexicon o ka honua. I kēia manawa, noho mākou i ko mākou ola i ke aka o ka maʻi.
Ua loaʻa i ka virus ka hopena kū hoʻokahi ma nā mākeke. Ua wānana mua ʻia ka makeke kaulike ma Malaki, hāʻule ka aila i kahi waiwai maikaʻi ʻole no ka mea ʻaʻohe mea e hiki ke lawe i ka ʻona a mālama pū kekahi. Ua piʻi aʻe nā palekana e like me ke gula i ke kumukūʻai a me ka ʻike o nā mea hoʻopukapuka i ka waiwai. Akā ʻo ka hoʻōla hou ʻana i nā mākeke kaulike a me ka aila he mea kupaianaha.
ʻO ke kālā nui a me ke kālā e hoʻonāukiuki i ke aupuni USA a me Federal Reserve i komo i loko o ka hōʻoia ʻana i nā mākeke waiwai āpau i nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe i paʻi ʻia o US, ʻoiai he 15 miliona ka nui o ka hana ʻole a me 25 miliona mau mea koi hou. Ua ala aʻe ʻo Tesla ma kahi kokoke ma 700%. Me ka hāʻawi ʻana i kahi hapa o nā kaʻa ʻo Toyota ke kumu waiwai ma mua o hoʻokahi haneli a ʻoi mau manawa.
Ua waiwai ʻia ʻo Airbnb ma kahi o $ 18b ma mua o ka maʻi ahulau. ʻOiai ʻo ka pandemic e haki ana i ka huakaʻi huakaʻi a me nā mokulele, ua lana ka paʻa i ka Pōʻahā Kēkēmapa 10 a kokoke koke ʻia ma $ 90b. Ua pāpālua ʻia kāna kumukūʻai IPO i ke komo ʻana i ka mākeke.
Aia hoʻokahi pōmaikaʻi o ia ala hōkū e piʻi i nā like me Tesla a me Airbnb; ʻAʻole pilikia ka ʻaiʻē i kekahi o nā ʻoihana ʻelua paha. Eia nō naʻe, ʻo nā wahi kiʻekiʻe kupaianaha kahi hōʻailona o ka wai o nā mākeke a me ka loiloi ʻana i nā ʻano he nui i kēia manawa, ʻoi aku ma mua o ka manawa e pono ai ʻoe e "kālepa i ka mea āu e ʻike nei".
Ua emi iho ka dālā US ma mua o kāna mau hoa nui ma muli o nā stimuli. Ua iho ka papa kuhikuhi kālā (DXY) -6.59% i kēlā me kēia makahiki, ʻoiai ʻo EUR / USD e piʻi aʻe nei ma 8.38% i ka makahiki 2020. Pono ʻoe e ʻimi i nā pakuhi e ʻike i kahi manawa ma lalo o ke kaomi o USD.
ʻO ka hoʻomaka mua o ka 2018 ma hope o ka hopena o Trump i kahi hakakā kūpono ʻole me Kina a kau ʻia nā uku i ka manawa hope loa. ʻO kēlā hanana a me nā "kaua tariff" hōʻike pehea e hiki ai i nā hanana macroeconomic ke lanakila. I ka wā i tweet ai ʻo Trump i kona huhū iā Kina, ua kūleʻa nā mākeke.
Inā he mea kūʻai nā mākeke kaulike ma ka US, e ʻōlelo mākou i kahi ʻōpio ʻōhumu, a laila ʻaʻaleʻa ke loaʻa ʻole ka mea āna e makemake ai, inā ʻaʻohe kō kō i ke ʻano o nā stimuli a laila hoʻonāukiuki nā mea a huhū. Hāʻawi iā ia i kahi hoʻonāukiuki, a hauʻoli hauʻoli koke ia. Minamina, i kēia manawa, ʻo ke kālailai ʻana i ke alakaʻi o nā mākeke kaulike kēlā kumu. I ka manawa e ʻae ai ka Senate i ka $ 900b + Pandemic Relief Bill E hōʻuluʻulu paha nā mākeke kālā US, i ka manawa kūpono e holo ai i ka Santa Rally.
Pēlā nō, inā mākou e ʻimi nei e wānana i ke kuhikuhi o USD ma luna o ka pule e hiki mai ana, hilinaʻi ia i ka ʻōlelo hoʻoholo stimulus: ʻoi aku ka stimulus = hāʻule ka waiwai o USD. ʻEhia ka nui e hāʻule ai i ka nui o ka ʻāpono a ka Senate.
ʻO Brexit kekahi o nā nūhou waiwai alakaʻi i kēia pule i hala. Ua hōʻea ʻo UK i ka hope o ke ala. E like me ka luhi ʻana o nā kamaʻāina o UK me ke kumuhana a koho hou i ka Tories i ka mana i hiki ai iā lākou ke "hana Brexit", aia ka manaʻo nui ʻole a me ka naʻaupō ma UK no kēia pilikia.
ʻAʻohe manaʻo o ka Brit average i ka decoupling mai kahi pilina 40-50 makahiki me ka EU e hana i ka ʻeha waiwai a me ka nohona koʻikoʻi. nui ka poʻe e manaʻoʻiʻo i nā wahaheʻe o "ke aupuni, ka iʻa, a me ke kūʻokoʻa".
Ma ka Lāpule e pau ai ka saga torrid, ka (manaʻo) lā hope loa e ʻae ai nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua i kahi hopena. ʻO ka mea e mahalo ai, ʻo nā nūhou alakaʻi mai ka hālāwai kūkā o ka poʻe alakaʻi o EU no ka Pōʻalima ʻaʻole ʻo Brexit, akā ʻo ka hoʻololi i ke aniau a me kahi ʻaelike e kaohi i nā hoʻokuʻu. ʻO ke kahakaha ʻana o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ke kikowaena-wahi i hōʻailona ia a ka EU i hāʻawi hope ai ma UK ma ke ʻano he enfant weliweli a mākaukau piha no ka hana ʻole.
E like me kā mākou i kuhikuhi ai i nā manawa i hala koke aku nei; ʻaʻole piʻi piʻi ka paona UK ma mua o ka US kālā i nā mahina i hala iho nei, ua hiolo ka dālā me nā hoa āpau. Ua hina haʻahaʻa me ka sterling. Ma ka Pōʻalima, Kekemapa 11 ma 11:30 am, kālepa ʻo GBP / USD i lalo -0.85% ma 1.3190, piʻi aʻe i 0.40% makahiki a hiki i kēia lā.
Kūleʻa ʻo EUR / GBP ma 0.9182, piʻi aʻe ma 0.58% i ka lā a piʻi i ka 8.07% makahiki a hiki i kēia lā. Ua mālama maikaʻi ka euro me kāna mau hoa i ka manawa o 2020, ʻoiai ka ECB e hana nei i nā pōʻaiapuni stimulus a me nā uku paneʻe ma zero a maikaʻi ʻole paha no nā waihona kālā a me nā mālama mālama maʻamau.
Inā ʻo ka Lāpule ka lā hope loa no ka hiki i UK ke kuikahi me ka EU, a laila hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo i ka neʻe koke ʻana o nā hui GBP ke wehe ʻia nā mākeke FX. No laila, pono i nā mea kālepa e noʻonoʻo pono i kā lākou kūlana. Hiki i kēlā mau hanana ke kumu i nā kui nui e hiki ai ke hoʻololi i nā kū a me nā palena. I kahi haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa akā ʻo ke kālepa kālepa volatility kiʻekiʻe, hiki i nā hoʻopihapiha a me nā pālahalaha ke pilikia.
Nā hanana kalena e nānā ai i ka hebedoma e hoʻomaka ana i Kēkēmapa 13
On Pōʻalua loaʻa iā mākou ka helu hoʻopiʻi hou loa a me ka hana hana ʻole mai ka UK ONS. Ma muli o ka paʻakikī a me ka obfuscation, e hoʻokolokolo nei pehea ke ʻano o kēia mau kiʻi e like me ka hoʻāʻo ʻana e pin i nā jelly i ka paia. Akā ʻo ka wānana no kahi hoʻomaikaʻi kūpono i ka helu o ka mea koi a me ka pākēneka hana ʻole o ka heluna hana.
Ke hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia ke kaulike o ke kālepa ʻo Iapana ke hōʻike ʻia nā kiʻi i ke ahiahi Pōʻalua; hiki i kēia ke hoʻololi i ka waiwai o ka yen.
On Pōʻakolu Ua paʻi ʻia ka helu kumukūʻai hou o ka UK, ʻo Kanada kekahi e like me ka ʻike kūʻai hou loa no USA. ʻAʻole paha e hoʻoneʻe i ka helu inflation i ka waiwai o GBP a i ʻole CAD nui. Hōʻike ka helu helu kūʻai no USA i ka makemake o ka mea kūʻai aku e hoʻolilo.
Hoʻopuka ʻia ka helu hoʻonui kālā a Iapana ma Pōʻahā, aʻo ka wānana no ka hou iho i -0.4%. ʻO ka holo ʻana i kahi ʻoihana hoʻokalakupua defusionary ʻaʻole ia he mea nui hou i ka poʻe hana politika a i ʻole nā mea kau kānāwai.
Pōʻalima hoʻokuʻu ka ʻikepili i ka hopohopo i ka heluhelu hou ʻana o ka hilinaʻi GfK no nā mea kūʻai aku ma UK. ʻO ka wānana heluhelu -33. Kākoʻo ka helu i kahi ana hou no nā poʻe mākua e hana ana ma UK, e ʻōlelo ana kokoke ma 68% ʻaʻole lawa ka kālā e ola ai ma ka uku o Kekemapa; pono lākou e hōʻaiʻē a hiki i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka uku o Ianuali i kā lākou waihona kālā. E hoʻolaha ʻo IHS Markit i kahi luku o nā PMI i loko o ka pule. ʻO kēia mau heluhelu haʻahaʻa i ka hopena i maʻalahi e wehewehe i ka paradigm pandemi o kēia manawa. Kūʻokoʻa lākou i kēlā me kēia mahina a hiki ʻole ke hilinaʻi ʻia ma ke ʻano he alakaʻi alakaʻi pololei.
« Hana maikaʻi ʻo Euro i ka hoʻoholo ECB e hoʻolōʻihi i ka stimulus Ua hoʻonui ʻia nā kamaʻilio Brexit ʻoiai nā Democrats, manaʻoʻiʻo ua ʻae ʻia ka pili pandemi i ka Pōʻakahi »
