E hoʻomaka ʻo ECB i ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ikaika, makemake i nā Euro Bulls
Manaʻo ʻia ka hopena o ka mahina ma ka ʻāpana kālā. Me ka hopena pule o ka US i nehinei, ua haʻahaʻa nā kahe aggregate i nā hola o ʻAsia a me Lākana akā ua ʻike ʻia kahi ʻano kūʻai no ka euro ma hope o ka ʻikepili inflation mai Sepania a me Kelemānia.
ʻO ke kamaʻilio ʻana ma ke kaiāulu kālepa i kālele nui ʻia i nā pilikia o ka pule i hala, ʻo ia hoʻi ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ke kulekele ʻEulopa Central Bank a me ka nāwaliwali o ke kālā. Loaʻa iā mākou kekahi mau manawa hoihoi ma mua o ka hoʻoholo kulekele kālā o ka pule aʻe, ka ulu ʻana o ka ECB a me nā wanana inflation, a me ke alakaʻi hou ʻana mai ka Pelekikena ʻEulopa Central Bank Christine Lagarde.
Ua manaʻo ʻia nā kahe o ka hopena o Mei e kākoʻo i ke kālā, a ua ʻike mākou i kekahi kākoʻo i ka pule i hala. Ua haʻi mai kekahi mea kālepa interbank iaʻu ʻaʻole lākou e manaʻo i ka kahe nui ʻana i kēlā alo i kēia lā, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hui ʻana o nā waihona US i kēia mau lā. ʻO kēia, ke haʻi mai iaʻu he lumi ka Euro e ulu hou aʻe.
E pili ana i ka asymmetry o ka ECB. No nā mea kālepa kālā, ʻo ka likelika o kahi piʻi kumu kumu 50 i Iulai ua aneane like me kahi piʻi kumu 25. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Chief Economist ʻo Philip Lane i nehinei e lohi ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ke kulekele kālā a "ʻo ke kumu kumu he 25 kumu piʻi no nā hālāwai o Iulai a me Kepakemapa". He ʻōlelo maopopo kēlā, akā waiho ʻia kahi lumi no ka hoʻomaikaʻi hou ʻana, e like me nā ʻōlelo hou a Lagarde. A no ka mea, aia ʻo Lane i kahi hoʻomoana haʻahaʻa o ka ʻAha Aupuni, hiki ke lawe ʻia kēia ma ke ʻano he ʻōlelo hawkish.
Inā paha e hoʻokō ʻia kahi neʻe kumu 50 kumu mua he mea ia e ʻike ai nā mea kālepa forex ma ka mākeke koho. Ke hoʻomau nei ka ʻokoʻa o ka volatility euro i ke kālā akā ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o nā pae bearish no ke kālā hoʻokahi ma mua o ka waena o Mei. Inā ʻike mākou i ka repricing hou aʻe a me ka neʻe mua ʻana i ke kumukūʻai i ka bullish euro rates, hiki ke lawe ʻia he hōʻailona ikaika e manaʻo ana nā mea kālepa i kahi hiʻohiʻona dovish ECB a me kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka piʻi ʻana o ka hapalua hapa pakeneka ma Kepakemapa.
Ke hoʻomau nei ka ʻokoʻa o ka uku paneʻe ma waena o ka US a me Kelemania, ʻoiai nā manaʻolana o ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka wā waena i hōʻailona i kahi haʻahaʻa pōkole no ka Eurozone. ʻO ka nānā ʻana o ka laha ʻana o ka euro-dollar a me ka hoʻololi ʻana o EU-US 1-2 mau makahiki mai kēia manawa e hōʻike ana i kahi neʻe ʻana i $1.13 hiki i ka pipeline. Me kekahi mau "akā" nui: pehea ka ulu ʻana o ke kūlana me Covid ma Kina a inā paha e lilo ka hakakā kaua ma Ukraine i mea pilikia nui. I kēia manawa, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana ma luna o ka 55-lā neʻe awelika e ʻōlelo nei no ka manawa mua mai Pepeluali ma ka nūhou ua ʻae nā alakaʻi o EU i ka pāpā ʻana i ka ʻaila ʻo Rūsia, e wehe ana i ke ala no ke ono o nā hoʻopaʻi e hoʻopaʻi iā Moscow, e ʻōlelo ana nona iho. . Aia ka manawa no ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa hou ʻana i ke kālā, akā e like me kā mākou i ʻōlelo ai i ka pule i hala, e makaʻala i nā breakouts wahaheʻe ma waena o nā kahe kālā o ka hopena o ka mahina a me ka hōʻemi ʻana o ka wai ma muli o ka wā hoʻomaha. E hoʻomaka ana i ka lā ʻapōpō, hiki iā mākou ke kamaʻilio e pili ana i ka seasonality.
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