ʻO Deciphering Fed ʻ Fedlelo
Ua hōʻike nā mea kaulike i kekahi volatility e pili ana i ka hoʻoholo, akā pani kokoke ʻole i loli. Ua iho mua nā US Treasury ma mua o ka hoʻoholo a ua hana ʻia kekahi mau pihi piʻo, e like me ka script script, i alakaʻi ʻia ai i ka hopena o ka hopena lōʻihi a me kahi bear e pālahalaha ana i nā ʻāpana 5 a 30 mau makahiki. Ua hina mua ka EUR / USD ma lalo, a laila spiked kiʻekiʻe, ma mua o ka hōʻole hou ʻana a pani ʻana i ka ʻole ma mua o nā pae mua o FOMC.
ʻO ka ʻōlelo ʻo June FOMC i ʻike i ka lohi o ka hoʻokele waiwai i nā ʻāpana like ʻole, e like me ka hoʻolilo kālā ʻana o ka home a me ka mākeke hana. Ua ʻike ʻia ka hoʻokomo paʻa paʻa ʻana e hoʻomau i ka holomua (ʻaʻole i loli a ʻo ka ʻāpana hale hoʻi i wehewehe ʻia me ke kaumaha me ke ʻano o nā hōʻailona o ka hoʻomaikaʻi (hoʻololi ʻole). Ke piʻi nei paha ka hoʻonui kālā kālā ʻana ma mua o ka makahiki, ʻoiai ʻo ʻApelila. Ma ka mākeke hana, ua ʻōlelo ʻo ia ua "lohi ka ulu ʻana o ka hana i nā mahina i hala iho nei, akā ʻo ke kūlana o ka mākeke hana i ʻike ʻia ua hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia a ua hōʻole ka helu o ka hana ʻole i ʻApelila.
E pili ana i ka nānā waiwai, ua hoʻoponopono iki ʻia. Manaʻo ʻia ka ulu ʻana e noho kaulike ma luna o nā ʻāpana e hiki mai ana, a laila e ʻohi mālie (hoʻohui ʻia o ka nui). Manaʻo ʻia ka helu o ka hana ʻole e emi mālie wale nō, ʻoiai ʻo ʻApelila e manaʻo nei e hana haʻahaʻa. ʻO nā kānana kālā e like me ka mea i ʻike mua ʻia e waiho nei i kahi makaʻu nui downside. Ua hoʻololi hou ʻia naʻe nā wanaʻao hoʻokele waiwai no ka 2013 a me ka 2014, no ka manaʻo e ulu a lohi paha ka ulu ʻana ma lalo o ka ulu no ʻelua mau makahiki hou aku. No laila, hoʻomaikaʻi nā kiaʻāina i kā lākou mau wanaʻao no ka helu o ka hana ʻole, e hōʻike ana e pili ana i ka helu o ka hana ʻole paʻa ma ka hopena o ka makahiki a ʻo kahi mea haʻahaʻa wale nō i ka hopena o 2014 ka mālama ʻana i nā kumukūʻai Fed ma kahi o ka hoʻololi (0-0.25%) a pēlā pū ka helu nānā i mua. alakaʻi. Manaʻo ka FOMC e ʻae nā kūlana i nā pae FF haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ma ka liʻiliʻi ma o ka hopena o 2014. ʻO ka nānā ʻana i ka nānā no ka ulu a me ka hana ʻole e wehewehe i ke kumu e hoʻomāmā ai ka FOMC i ke kulekele. Hōʻike ka koho o kahi wili hana i koho ʻole ka Fed no kahi hana haʻalulu a weliweli.
Ua manaʻo nā mea hoʻopukapuka i kahi papahana QE-3, he hana ikaika loa kēia. ʻO ke kūmole kikoʻī i loko o ka ʻōlelo i mākaukau ka Fed e hana hou i ke ʻano o ka hoʻoholo ʻana i ka mea hana i hoʻohana ʻia i kaulike maikaʻi ʻia. Ua hōʻoia ʻo Mr. Bernanke i ka hoʻomaka o ka hālāwai kūkā nūhou ʻaʻole e kali lōʻihi ʻo Fed e hana hou inā ʻaʻole e hoʻomaikaʻi ke ʻano o ka mākeke hana. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo ia ʻo ia hana ke ʻano ʻoi aku ka QE-3 (i ka hopena o ka makahiki ʻaʻole i waiho ʻia nā palekana pōkole i ka waihona o ka Fed e hana ana i kahi hana ʻē aʻe ʻaʻole hiki), akā i ka hoʻoholo ʻia ʻana o ka wili hana i 6 mau mahina, ʻo ia ka QE-3 ʻaʻole i hoʻomoʻa ʻia i ka pōpō. Hiki i nā koho ʻoluʻolu ʻē aʻe. Aia he ʻelua mau mahina o ka ʻike eco ma mua o ka hālāwai o ʻAukake a no laila ʻaʻole e kāpae i ka wā i ʻAukake e hele paha ka Fed no kahi noho hou aku, a mai kāpae, ʻoiai ka mea i kākau ʻia i ʻelua laina ke kiʻekiʻe, aia paha ma ke ʻano. o QE-3. Hōʻike pū ʻo Bernanke no ke aha lākou i hana ʻole ai i ka hana ma kēia hālāwai: ʻaʻole maopopo loa ka ʻikepili (hiki i ke anilā a me nā pilikia hoʻoponopono manawa ʻē aʻe i hoʻokahuli ʻia iā lākou) a ʻo nā mea hana pono ʻole pū kekahi e lawe i nā pilikia a me nā kumukūʻai.
No laila, makemake ka Fed e hōʻahewa ʻia makemake ʻia lākou; malia paha makemake ka Fed e mālama i kekahi mau lako kaua inā e piʻi aʻe ka pilikia EMU. Ua hoʻohui paʻa ʻoiai e hana ʻo Fed i ka hana ʻoi aku ka wiwo ʻole, inā pono.
Ua hoʻoholo ka wili hana i ka makahiki i hala e pau i ka hopena o Iune. Ua hoʻoholo ka FOMC e hoʻomau i ka hopena o ka makahiki i kāna papahana e hoʻolōʻihi i ka awelika o ke ʻano o kāna mau palekana. Na ka NY Fed e alakaʻi i nā hana. E kūʻai ia i nā palekana Treasury me ke koena o nā mākua o 6 mau makahiki a 30 mau makahiki i ka wikiwiki o kēia manawa a kūʻai aku a kūʻai lilo aku paha i nā palekana Treasury me nā koena i hala o 3-makahiki a ʻoi iki paha. Wahi a ka Fed pono kēia e hoʻokau i lalo i ka uku paneʻe manawa lōʻihi a kōkua i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ke kūlana kālā. Ua hoʻohui ka NY Fed ma ka hopena o ka papahana, e paʻa ana ka Fed ma kahi o nā palekana āpau a hiki i Ianuali 2016. E kūʻai lilo ʻia nā mākua ma H2 o 2012 a kūʻai ʻole ʻia e like me ka hopena o ka waihona i aneane like. ʻO ka mahele o nā kūʻai e like paha ia me ka papahana mua (30% i ka makahiki 20-30 bākeke, 32% i kēlā me kēia pakete 6-8 a me 8-10 makahiki, 4% i ka makahiki 10-20 a me 3% NĀ MANAʻO 6-30 makahiki. Ma ka hopena o ka papahana, nā kūʻai a me nā kūʻai aku i kēlā me kēia kālā i $ 267B.
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