Hiki i nā loaʻa kālā ʻoihana ke kuhikuhi i ka hana o nā hōʻike ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka pule e hiki mai ana, ʻoiai ʻo ka Sterling a me ka dālā US e noho ma lalo o ka nānā a me ka kaomi
ʻOiai nā helu NFP hou loa e kuʻi ana i ka wanana a Reuters o 165K (e kekahi mamao) i ka Pōʻalima Pepeluali 1st, ʻaʻole i piʻi nui ka US kālā, i ka manawa i paʻi ʻia ai ke kiʻi o 304K mau hana ma Ianuali. Pono e mālama i ka wanana i ka pōʻaiapili; e pili ana i ka helu mua o Kēkēmapa i hoʻoponopono hou ʻia i lalo, ʻoiai ua ʻike ʻia nā ʻekekema ʻē aʻe i koho ʻia ma mua o ka hopena o ka hopena o ka hoʻopau ʻana o ke aupuni USA, i loko o ʻehā mau pule ma mua.
Ua kālele koke nā loiloi i ka loaʻa kālā o ka hola no nā limahana o US, e piʻi nei i ka 0.1% wale nō i Ianuali, e nalo ana i ka wānana o 0.3%. ʻO kēia hāʻule, mai 0.3% i Kēkēmapa, hāʻawi i ke kākoʻo i ke kulekele dovish ʻoi aku ka Fed, e pili ana i nā hana o ka hoʻokele waiwai o USA. No laila, ua helu paha nā mea kālepa FX me ka hāʻule ʻana o ka uku uku, ʻaʻole e wikiwiki ʻo Fed / FOMC e hoʻonui i nā uku paneʻe kī i kēlā me kēia manawa. Ua kālepa aku ʻo EUR / USD kokoke i ka pā i ka pau ʻana o ka pule kālepa, me ka liʻiliʻi loa o ka hopena ke hoʻokuʻu ʻia ka NFP a me nā hana ʻē aʻe. Ua kūʻai aku ʻo EUR / USD i 1% ma Ianuali, ma lalo o 8% o ka makahiki. I ka wehe ʻia ʻana o nā mākeke FX ma ke ahiahi Lāpule, kūʻai aku ʻo EUR / USD ma 1.145.
I loko o kēia pule kālepa, e hoʻolaha kekahi mau ʻoihana nui i kā lākou loaʻa kālā hou a me nā loaʻa kālā; ʻO Alphabet (Google), Walt Disney, General Motors a me Twitter e faila i kā lākou kiʻi hou loa. A ma muli o ka waiho ʻana i kēia manawa a hiki i ka makahiki 2019, hiki i nā kuʻi a i ʻole nihi o nā manaʻo o ka poʻe economists, ke kumu o ka hoʻololi wikiwiki ʻana i ka manaʻo i nā hōʻike nui o USA, ʻo ia hoʻi ka papa kuhikuhi NASDAQ, kahi i helu ʻia ai ʻo Google a me Twitter.
E ʻimi ana nā mea hoʻopukapuka no nā hōʻike hou aʻe, ua hōʻoki ʻia ka ʻauhau ʻoihana ʻo Trump, ka mea i hoʻomaikaʻi i ka mea i kapa ʻia ʻo "ke kau loaʻa" i ka makahiki 2018, ʻaʻole ia he blip a hoʻomau i ka hoʻonui i kona hopena i kēia kau o kēia manawa. ʻO nā papa kuhikuhi nui i paʻi ʻia i piʻi nui i ka manawa o Ianuali, e hoʻi ana i ka hapa nui o nā poho i loaʻa i ka wā ʻoi loa o Kēkēmapa 2018 ua kū ka NASDAQ e 12.38%, ua piʻi ka SPX e 7.83% a me ka DJIA e 7.36% i Ianuali.
ʻAʻohe o nā hoʻokuʻu nūhou hopena kiʻekiʻe i hoʻolālā ʻia no ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā wā kālepa o Pōʻakahi, e pili ana i ka hoʻokele waiwai USA. Eia nō naʻe, ʻo nā kauoha hana mahina hou (Kekemapa) no nā ʻoihana ʻo USA a me nā kauoha kūpaʻa o nā huahana, e kiaʻi pono ʻia ke paʻi ʻia ma 15:00 pm UK manawa, no nā hōʻailona o ka nāwaliwali kūkulu i ka hoʻokele waiwai USA, ma muli o ke kaua kalepa. a me nā kumukūʻai pili i kā Kina.
ʻO ke kumuhana hoʻomau o Brexit e noho kiʻekiʻe paha ma ka papahana nūhou i loko o ka pule. Ma ka loaʻa ʻana o kahi hoʻololi i ka pule i hala aku nei ua manaʻo ka mana nui o ke kuhina nui o UK e hoʻokokoke aku i ka European Union e hoʻopau i ka mea i kapa ʻia ʻo "backstop"; kahi hana e pale aku ai iā ʻIlalani, ʻoiai e pale ana i ke kuʻikahi kūwaho i kapa ʻia ʻo ka ʻAelike Pōʻalima Maikaʻi. Ua koi ʻia ʻo Mrs. May e kipa aku iā Brussels, i ka hoʻāʻo e kamaʻilio hou i ka hāʻawi haʻalele, a ka EU i ʻōlelo ai ʻaʻole e wehe hou ʻia.
ʻO nā mea kālepa FX i loea i ke kālepa ʻana i nā pai manuahi, pono e makaʻala i ke kūlana Brexit e ulu nei, ʻoiai ke kuhina nui o UK e hāʻawi i kahi ʻē aʻe i ka hana haʻalele, i hōʻole mua ʻia e ka nui o ka moʻolelo i ka House of Commons, e Pepeluali 13th . ʻOiai ʻo GBP / USD e piʻi nui nei i ka mahina o Ianuali - piʻi a 3.78% i ka mahina - ua hāʻule ka pālua kālā nui i kapa ʻia ʻo "cable" e 0.89% i loko o ka pule i hala, ma hope o ke koho balota a ka pāremaka i hana ai. ʻO Brexit ʻoi aku paha, i ka manaʻo o ka FX anamana kaiāulu.
ʻO ka hanana kalena hopena nui nui ma hope o kēia pule e pili ana i ka waiwai o ka sterling, e pili ana i ka Bank Of England e hoʻolaha nei i kāna hoʻoholo e pili ana i ka helu kumu UK ma ka Pōʻalima ma ka hola 12:00 pm UK. I kēia manawa ma 0.75%, aia ka manaʻo iki e hoʻolaha ʻo Mark Carney ke Kiaʻāina BoE, i kahi loli. E hoʻolohe pono nā loiloi a me nā mea kālepa, no nā kuhi mai kahi hālāwai kūkā nūhou e hiki mai ana, e hoʻokumu inā hāʻawi ke kōmike kulekele kālā BoE i kahi alakaʻi i mua. Ua wehe liʻiliʻi ʻo GBP / USD, e kālepa ana ma 1.307, i ke ahiahi Sābati.
Ua ʻike maka nā mea hoʻopukapuka gula iā XAU / USD e mālama nei i kona kūlana ma luna o ka ʻāpana koʻikoʻi o $ 1,300 i kēlā me kēia auneke, i ka manawa i wāwahi ʻia ai ka pae i ke kālepa ʻana o ka pule i hala. Ke kālepa nei ka metala makamae i kēia manawa i nā pae i ʻike ʻole ʻia mai Mei 2018. Pili ka hapa i ka piʻi ʻana i nā kumu kau, e like me nā ʻahaʻaina a me nā mea ʻē aʻe ma ʻAsia. Eia nō naʻe, ʻo ke kūlana lahilahi o ka kūkā kamaʻilio kūwaho, hoʻokele waiwai, a me waena o Kina a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua hoʻohui ʻia i ka paulele hilinaʻi e pili ana i nā ʻoihana Kina a me ʻEulopa, ʻoiai ʻo Brexit makaʻu e hōʻike nei i kahi pilikia, ua hoʻokumu ʻia ke gula (a me nā metala i hala), e hauʻoli i kahi hōʻuluʻulu palekana ma 2019.
« ʻO ka maʻalea maʻalahi hiki iā ʻoe ke pāʻani iā ʻoe iho, e lilo koke i mea kālepa ʻoi loa ʻo FX Ua hōʻea ʻo UK FTSE 100 i 7,000 i ke kālepa kakahiaka, ua heʻe ʻo Aussie dālā ke hōʻole ʻole ke kūkulu ʻana i ka ʻikepili i nā mākeke »
