Shin FOMC zata bi alkawurran da suka dauka; don ƙara ƙima sau uku a cikin 2017?
A cikin taronsu na ƙarshe na 2017, wanda zai ƙare a ranar Laraba 1 ga Nuwamba, FOMC (kujerun dukkan Feds na yanki), za su ƙare taron su ta hanyar sanar da shawarar da suka yanke game da mahimman kuɗin ruwa na Amurka a yanzu. Ana sanar da sanarwar gabaɗaya taron manema labarai da / ko takaddara, waɗanda ke bayyana dalilan da ya sa aka ɗauki shawarar.
Sau da yawa yayin saurin nazarin takaddun, ko yayin taron manema labarai, lokacin da masu saka hannun jari za su sami ƙarin haske game da kwazon FOMC da kuma jagorar ci gaba; shin sakonnin gaba daya hawkish ne, ko azanci? Shin kujerun Fed suna aiki ne ta hanyar iska; ta hanyar neman sakewa a cikin sako-sako da tsarin kudi wanda ya wanzu a recentan shekarun nan ta hanyar gaggawa / ƙarancin tushe da saukaka abubuwa masu yawa? Ko za su ci gaba da manufofin dovish; ta rage ƙima da nuna cewa ƙayyadadden adadi ba zai faru ba, tare da kowane mataki na gaggawa, a cikin 2018?
Tun da farko a cikin Oktoba an samu hauhawar riba, daga na yanzu na 1.25% zuwa 1.5%, ya duba rashin daidaito a kan sanar a ranar Laraba, daidai da alkawarin da aka yi a farkon shekarar ta FOMC; don haɓaka ƙima sau uku a cikin 2017. Duk da haka, yarjejeniya ta yanzu daga yawancin masana tattalin arziƙin da aka tambaya ta hanyar Bloomberg da Reuters, yanzu ya zama a hade. Da yawa yanzu suna ba da shawara cewa ƙididdigar maɓallin zai kasance a 1.25% har zuwa farkon 2018, duk da raftin kwanan nan Amurka mai wuya data doke hasashe; GDP ya tashi duk da guguwar da ta lalace kwanan nan, hauhawar farashi ba shi da kyau a 2.2%, rashin aikin yi ya kusan zuwa ƙasa da shekaru goma, albashi na ƙaruwa, tallace-tallace da dorewar tallace-tallace sun tashi kuma kwatankwacin kwastomomin ya yi yawa. Bayanai sun nuna cewa tattalin arzikin yana da karfi sosai don jimre wa jerin hauhawan farashi, don samun damar daidaita daidaituwa zuwa kusan 3%, a cikin kwata na uku na 2018.
Wannan tsari na daidaitawa, haɗe tare da Fed fara bayarda kanta na dala biliyan 4.5 na ma'auni, ta hanyar tsarin da ake kira "tightarfafa adadi", wata manufa ce da Janet Yellen ta tsara a shekarar 2017, wanda yanzu ya bayyana rashin daidaito akan maye gurbinsa da wani zaɓi na Turi, a matsayin kujerar Fed a watan Fabrairu. Wannan yiwuwar canjin na iya tasiri ga shawarar FOMC; watakila sabon nadin bai kamata ya gaji siyasar da ta gabata ba.
Yayin da aka fitar da sanarwar, a yayin da kuma jim kaɗan bayan kowane taron manema labarai da aka gudanar, za mu iya sa ran ganin motsi a cikin USD, game da manyan takwarorinsa kuma ƙari ga yawancin takwarorinsa. A dabi'ance motsi zai kasance mafi tsayayyen dogaro da matakin kowane tashi da yadda hawkish, ko kuma yin cikakken bayani game da labarin. USD ya sami gagarumar nasara game da yawancin manyan takwarorinsa a cikin 'yan makonnin nan, saboda haka kasuwa na iya riga an sanya farashi a cikin kowane ƙaruwa da tasirinsa (idan da gaske an sanar da tashin kuɗi) na iya iyakance. Abin da ke tabbatacce shi ne cewa haɓakar haɓakar kusan 0.25% ba abin mamaki bane. Koyaya, yan kasuwa yakamata su daidaita matsayinsu a hankali kuma bisa ga hakan, saboda yanke shawara game da ƙimar riba babu shakka ɗayan maɓalli ne, babban tasiri, abubuwan kalanda yayin shekara da kuma yadda kasuwar ke iya zama mara tabbas.
MUHIMMAN BAYANAN TATTALIN ARZIKI NA Amurka.
• Kudin sha'awa kashi 1.25%.
• GDP ya karu 3%.
• GDP na haɓaka shekara-shekara 2.3%.
• Rashin aikin yi 4.2%.
• Girman albashi 3.2%.
• CPI (kumbura) 2.2%.
• Bashin Gwamnati v GDP 106%.
• Hadadden PMI 55.7.
• Kayan umarni masu dorewa sun ba da umarnin 2.2%.
• Retail tallace-tallace 4.4%.
« Darajojin Amurka sun zame yayin da ƙararrawa ke haifar da sakamako, GBP / USD ya tashi yayin da fare ya karu akan ƙimar BoE ya karu a wannan Alhamis mai zuwa Sterling ya karu saboda tattaunawa mai kyau game da tattaunawar Brexit da kuma tsammanin kasuwa na karuwar darajar kudi a ranar Alhamis, Euro yana samun nasara akan yawancin takwarorina, yayin da GDP ke tashi »
