TATTALIN SATI NA SATI 25/01 - 29/01 | USD ya rike har zuwa shekara-shekara don samun daidaitattun alamomin Amurka masu tasowa duk da damuwar da ake fama da su na ayyukan yau da kullun
Yayinda yawancin bankunan tsakiya ke ci gaba da gudanar da manufofin kuɗi na NIRP ko ZIRP (duka manufofin ƙarancin ra'ayi da ƙarancin riba) don bincika ɓarnar cutar, ƙimar kuɗin ƙasa ba zai iya bambanta da yawa ba cikin watanni masu zuwa.
Sabili da haka, yan kasuwa dole ne suyi gwagwarmaya tare da manyan nau'ikan kuɗaɗen kuɗaɗe masu jujjuyawar a cikin tsaka-tsakin tsaka-tsakin yau da kullun akan gajeren lokaci har sai bayyananniyar alkibla ta bayyana.
Indexididdigar dala DXY ta tashi da kusan 0.20% ya zuwa yanzu a 2021. Cinikin kasuwancin yana kusa da madaidaicin matakin 90.00 galibi ana ɗauka a matsayin matakin ƙimar psyche wanda yawancin umarnin kasuwa ke haɗuwa.
A lokacin rubuce-rubuce, 9:00 na safe agogon Ingila Juma'a, Janairu 22 EUR / USD ya yi ƙasa -0.31% shekara-zuwa-yau yayin da GBP / USD ke sama da 0.03%. USD / JPY ya tashi da 0.36%, kuma USD / CHF ya yi ƙasa -0.07%. A kan Aussia, dalar Amurka ta tashi da 0.35% kuma a kan Kiwi ƙasa -0.03%.
Yanzu gwamnatin Trump ta tashi daga Fadar White House, forex, daidaito da 'yan kasuwa na kaya na iya sa ido ga lokacin da tweets ba za su motsa kasuwanni ba. A lokacin yaƙe-yaƙe na ba da kuɗin fito da rashin jituwa tare da China, akwai lokacin da tunanin bazuwar Trump (wanda aka gabatar ta hanyar dandalin sada zumunta) ya sa kasuwanni yin bulala kuma lokaci-lokaci suka faɗa cikin yankin beyar-kasuwa.
Gwamnatin Joe Biden bata bata lokaci ba ta sauya yawancin manufofin raba kawunan Trump. A cikin yawo iri-iri, Biden ya ba da umarni na zartarwa don gudanar da martani ga COVID-19 da maido da dangantaka da wasu ƙasashe. Ya sake shiga cikin yarjejeniyar sauyin yanayi ta Paris yarjejeniya, dakatar da gina katangar Mexico / USA, bai wa bakin haure matsayin, da kuma isa Iran da kuma yiwuwar Venezuela.
Wannan salon sarrafa nutsuwa zai shafi kasuwannin kuɗi kai tsaye saboda matsayin Amurka a matsayin mafi girman tattalin arzikin duniya. SPX 500 ya tashi 4.03% kowane wata kuma NASDAQ 100 ya tashi 5.52% kamar na safiyar Juma'a.
Akwai alamun da suka rigaya cewa kasuwannin kuɗi suna yin martani ga ƙa'idodin da aka jera a kalandar tattalin arziki a cikin makonnin da suka gabata. Misali, rahoton da aka samu na Netflix ya sa farashin daidaituwa ya tashi sama da 12%. Sabis ɗin gudana yana jin daɗin ci gaban masu biyan kuɗi yayin annobar. 'Yan kasuwa kuma suna ba da hankali ga yanke shawara na ƙimar riba, sanarwar manufofin kuɗi, da lambobin rashin aikin yi.
Rashin aikin gine-gine shine mafi girman ƙalubalen cikin gida da gwamnatin Biden ke fuskanta. Batun satar bayanan don samun lambobin rashin aikin yi na zahiri. Wasu hukumomin sun sanya jimillar miliyan 18, wasu kuma sun ba da shawarar kusan miliyan 25 lokacin da ka yi la'akari da waɗanda ke cikin alaƙa da ma'aikata da masu zaman kansu waɗanda suka rasa kasuwancinsu da kuɗin shiga. Duk wani ma'auni da aka yi amfani da shi gaskiyar ya kasance cewa kafin annobar cutar yawan marasa aikin yi ya kusan miliyan 5-6.
Thearfin da ake buƙata don mutane su lanƙwasa, ɗauki sandunan da suka karye su fara sake gina rugujewar rayuwarsu kuma kasuwancin suna wakiltar babban ƙalubale. Yayinda kasuwannin daidaito ke ci gaba da buga manyan abubuwa, tattalin arziƙin ƙasa yana kan numfashi. Babu wata hanyar kasuwanci ta kudi, wanda shine dalilin da yasa dala biliyan 1.9 na Biden ya buƙaci kai tsaye don taimakawa iyalai masu ƙarancin kuɗi da iyalai ASAP.
Kwayar COVID-19 ta biyu / ta uku ta yi wa Turai illa sosai. A Burtaniya annobar na ta yaduwa, a ranar Laraba Burtaniya ta rubuta adadin mutuwar 1,820 a kowace rana kuma ta doshi 10,000 a cikin mako guda, mafi munin ma'auni tun lokacin da cutar ta fara a watan Fabrairu-Maris 2020. Jamus, a da ana jin daɗin sarrafawa da shawo kan cutar , ya sha fama da yawan mutuwa a kwanan nan sama da 1,000.
Tasirin cutar a tattalin arzikin Turai a cikin 'yan watannin nan ya yi tsanani. A ranar Juma'a alkaluman tallace-tallace na Burtaniya sun zo kasa da tsammanin; Haɓakawa 0.3% a cikin Disamba tare da faɗuwar 2020 na kusan -1.5%, mafi ƙarancin ƙididdiga tun lokacin da aka fara samun adadi a cikin 1993.
Haɗuwa da waccan rushewar, sabon hasken sabis ɗin IHS Markit na ma'auni na Burtaniya a cikin Janairu ya firgita. Kamfanin Reuters ya yi hasashen karanta 45.1, amma ainihin adadin ya zo a 38.8. Matsakaicin hadadden ya shigo 40.6, wanda ke ƙasa da matakan 50 wanda ke raba raguwa da girma.
Kasuwanci da aiyuka sune ginshiƙan da ke tallafawa tattalin arziƙin Burtaniya, kuma irin waɗannan abubuwan banƙyama sun nuna babban ƙalubalen sake ginawa da gwamnatin Burtaniya ke fuskanta. Ba da daɗewa ba Burtaniya za ta shiga cikin mummunan koma-bayan tattalin arziki kuma yayin da Brexit ya ɓace a matsayin batun daga labarai na yau da kullun, tasirinsa yana fara shafar kasuwanci.
Sterling ya mai da martani sosai ga Markit PMIs, GBP / USD ya faɗi ta hanyar S1 kuma yana ciniki ƙasa -0.53% a ƙarfe 11:00 na safe agogon Ingila. Yuro ya ba da amsa mafi dacewa ga Eurozone PMIs waɗanda ke kusa da (ko doke) tsinkayen. EUR / USD da aka dawo dasu don kasuwanci kusa da lebur, yayin da EUR / GBP yayi ciniki da 0.51% yana barazanar keta R3.
Abubuwanda ke faruwa na mako mai zuwa zuwa abubuwan kalanda masu tasiri
Litinin rana ce mai nutsuwa don matsakaiciyar labarai mai tasiri. Bayanin yanayin kasuwanci na Ifo ga Jamus ya fito da shi, kuma hasashen ya faɗi daga 92.1 zuwa 91.8, faduwar da ka iya yin tasiri ga ƙimar EUR tare da takwarorinta na kuɗaɗe.
On Talata, ONS ta Burtaniya ta buga sabon aikinta da bayanan rashin aikin yi. Hasashen na asarar ayyukan 160K ne a cikin Oktoba, da haɓaka a cikin rashin aikin yi zuwa 5.1%. Yawan masu da'awar ya kamata ya karu da 86.3K don Disamba 2020. Duk da haka, waɗannan ƙananan canje-canjen suna faɗakar da ɓarna da COVID-19 ya yi wa al'ummar Burtaniya.
Tsarin makirci (an fadada har zuwa Afrilu 2021) yana hana asarar ayyuka. Miliyan tara ke kan shirin, kuma kiyasi ya nuna kashi 30% na ma'aikata zasu kasance ba tare da tallafi ba, kuma kasuwancin miliyan hudu na iya zama zombies ba tare da wata damar rayuwa ba. Idan adadi na aikin / rashin aikin yi ya rasa hasashe, GBP na iya fuskantar matsi.
Da rana, za a buga sabon ƙididdigar farashin gidan-Shiller. Hasashen yana bunkasa na shekara 8.4%, adadi mai ban mamaki idan aka yi la’akari da yanayin annobar. Karatuttukan kwastomomi na confidenceungiyar edeungiyar consumerasashe a cikin Amurka an yi hasashen zai zo a 88 don Janairu.
Babban abubuwan kalandar don Laraba hada da sabon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Ostiraliya. AUD na iya amsawa a cikin zaman cinikayya na Sydney / Asiya idan adadi ya ɓace ko ya doke kintace ta kowane nesa. Ana yin odar odar dorewa (ban da safara) a cikin Amurka don Disamba don nuna ci gaba mai kyau zuwa 0.6%.
Daga baya da yamma, USD na iya fuskantar canji lokacin da Babban Asusun Tarayya ya ba da sanarwar shawarar ƙimar riba, kuma ƙimar mai mahimmanci ya kasance a 0.25%. Manazarta da 'yan kasuwa za su mai da hankali kan taron Fed na Jerome Powell na taron manema labarai don kafa idan ana kan nazarin manufofin kuɗi mai sauƙin gaske.
Amurka ta Alhamis da'awar rashin aikin mako-mako na iya ci gaba da mummunan yanayin su. Hasashen ƙari ne na da'awar mako-mako 951K. Sai dai idan ci gaba a cikin rashin aikin yi ya bayyana, ba shi yiwuwa a faɗi lokacin da tattalin arzikin Amurka da al'umma ke cikin tsayayyen lokacin haɓakar haɓaka.
Wannan sabon adadi na iya shafar darajar USD akan takwarorinta. An ba da rahoton sabon tallace-tallace na watan Disamba daga baya a cikin taron New York, kuma hasashen yana ƙaruwa zuwa 2.9%, koma baya daga Nuwamba.
Early Jumma'a da safe ana fitar da jerin bayanan Jafananci gami da sabon adadi na rashin aikin yi da masana'antar masana'antu. Dukkanin ma'aunin awo na iya bayyana ɗan lalacewa wanda zai iya shafar darajar JPY da takwarorinta.
A cikin zaman tattaunawar London-Turai, ana buga sabon adadi na rashin aikin yi na Jamusawa kamar yadda aka auna Q4 2020 GDP. An yi hasashen rashin aikin yi zai kasance ba ya canzawa a 6.1%, tare da Q4 GDP ya faɗo zuwa -1.2% kuma adadi na shekara-shekara ya ta'azzara zuwa -4.6%, wanda ke wakiltar mafi munin karatu tun bayan Babban Tattalin Arzikin Kasa. Da rana kafin da kuma yayin zaman na New York, ana buga bayanan hukumomi daban-daban don tattalin arzikin Amurka. Kashewar mutum, kudin shiga na mutum, albashi, sayar da gida, da binciken Michigan zasu nuna duk wani rauni ko karfi a tattalin arzikin Amurka.
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