TATTALIN SATI NA SATI 21/12 - 24/12 | TA YAYA KASUWAN KASASU, FX DA NA JARI ZASUYI A LOKACIN SATI XMAS?
Makon da ya gabata kafin Xmas a al'adance lokaci ne mai nutsuwa don ciniki a cikin daidaito, FX, da kasuwannin kayayyaki. Koyaya, wannan bai zama shekara ba. 2020 ya kasance ma'anar kyakkyawan shekara mai ban mamaki.
Masifar Coronavirus ta mamaye duniyarmu ta kasuwanci tun watan Maris, kuma babu wanda zai iya yin hasashen yadda Black Swan zai zo, ya ruguje da kwarin gwiwar kasuwa a duk faɗin matakan tsaro wanda ke haifar da shinge.
Amma tallafi ya zo da sauri ta hanyar babban ƙarfafawa daga gwamnatocin yamma da bankunan tsakiya, yana kawo kasuwannin daidaito don yin rikodin manyan abubuwa. SPX 500 yana haɓaka 14.33% shekara-shekara kuma NASDAQ 100 ya haɓaka 43.83% mai ban mamaki da ba a taɓa gani ba.
Sabuwar shekara, da kuma ƙaramar tafiyar da mulki a Fadar White House
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan manazarta da yawa sun binciko kundin tsarin mulkin kalandar tattalin arzikinsu kuma sun mai da hankali kan batutuwa kamar su al'amuran tattalin arziki da na tweets na Trump. Na wani lokaci a lokacin shugabancinsa, tweets da tursasawa a kan kafofin watsa labarun suna sarrafa kasuwa.
Yaƙin da ba shi da ma'ana da ya zaɓa tare da China ya haifar da kasuwannin daidaito don ɗaukar yanayin kasuwa a ƙarshen 2018 farkon 2019 da darajar USD don zamewa. Ya zargi China da yin amfani da kuɗin waje kuma ya fara yin ƙarin haraji kan kayayyakin da China ke shigowa da su Amurka. Kasuwannin adalai na Amurka sun bugu saboda son ransa.
Kuna tsammani wani zai raɗa a kunnensa “Er, Shugaba; ba mu da tabbacin wannan zai yi aiki, mun shigo da yawancin kayanmu daga China, ba sa saya da yawa daga gare mu, sai dai waken soya da na dabbobi. Kuma idan suka daina sayan za ku bata ran manoman da kuka yi alkawarin karewa a alkawuranku na zaben 2016 ”.
Gaskiya kaman yadda yake, yana kawo karshen wa'adinsa a cikin Fadar White House yana zargin babban bankin Switzerland da yin amfani da kudaden waje, saboda CHF ya tashi da 8.96% a kan USD a lokacin 2020. Koyaya, kallon rashin hankali game da takwarorinsu na dalar Amurka ya kamata ya bayyana wa Trump Yuro ya sami kusan 10% da dala, Aussie ya tashi 9%, yen ya tashi 5%, kuma Index na Dollar (DXY) ya yi ƙasa -7%. Wataƙila, a tunaninsa, duk maƙarƙashiya ce.
A matsayinmu na manazarta, muna ƙoƙari mu ci gaba da nuna banbancin siyasa; duk da haka, da zarar an ƙaddamar da Biden a cikin Janairu 2021, duk muna fatan gaba ɗaya mu sa ido ga lokacin kwanciyar hankali da nutsuwa a cikin Amurka. Babu sauran yaƙe-yaƙe na kasuwanci, isa zuwa Iran, Venezuela da Turai, maido da diflomasiyyar duniya, da kuma aiki tare da yarjejeniyar canjin yanayi ta Paris a matsayin mafi ƙarancin.
Kasuwa na wannan makon
Neman gafara a gaba don yin kara kamar rikodin rikodin amma ba mu kaɗai ba ke gabatar da maimaita sharhin kasuwa kwanan nan. Manyan batutuwa biyu sun mamaye kasuwanni; motsawar da Majalisar Dattijan Amurka da Brexit za su yi izini.
Arawar ta kusan kusa da yarjejeniya, ɗakunan bayanai dalla-dalla kan nawa kowane babban ɗan Amurka da yaro ya kamata su samu. Wasu Sanatocin Republican suna tunanin $ 600 ga baligi da $ 500 ga kowane yaro ya isa tare da iyakokin cancanta. Sauran Sanatocin suna latsa $ 1,200 ga kowane baligi da $ 600 ga yaro.
Yana da ban sha'awa a lura cewa gwamnatin Amurka ta riga ta amince da dala tiriliyan 2.4 ta hanyoyi daban-daban. Ididdiga sun nuna cewa haɗakarwa ta hanyar Fed da Baitulmali (govt) na iya zuwa dala tiriliyan 6 sau ɗaya a ƙarshen 2020, tare da haɓaka bashin Amurka gaba ɗaya da ya wuce 125% v GDP.
Abin da ya tabbata, shine cewa biyan kuɗi zai zo da latti don taimakawa Amurkawa da yawa su more binge na biki. Tallace-tallace sun faɗi a Amurka, kuma yawancin ma'aikata ba za su kashe kuɗi ba yayin da suke tunanin “babu laifi, zan ƙara ɗaure belin na a cikin Janairu” saboda ba su da masaniya idan za su kasance cikin aiki a watan Janairu.
Manya Amurkawa miliyan ashirin da biyar suna karbar wani nau'i na taimakon rashin aikin yi, kashi 60% na magidanta ba su da wani tanadi na zahiri, kuma a ranar Alhamis wani 885K ya sami ƙarin cikin rajistar neman rashin aikin yi mako-mako.
Brexit; Shin ba za su yarda da yarjejeniya a ƙarshen mako ba?
A karshen makon da ya gabata ya kamata ya zama labarin ƙarshe na “kyauta ta ƙarshe ce, karba ko bar shi” Brexit saga. Amma wa'adin ya sauka, kamar yadda ya yi a watannin Oktoba da Nuwamba. Burtaniya da EU sun amince su tattauna a karshen wannan mako don kokarin neman mafita.
Dukanmu mun san fudge mai ceton fuska yana zuwa, yayin da EU ke ba wa Burtaniya mafita mai kyau, amma labarin da aka kirkira don yaudarar jama'ar Burtaniya ba shi yiwuwa a faɗi. Mafi kyaun zato shi ne, sako-sako, yarjejeniya ba ta ɗaurewa ba za ta buga, amma ana ci gaba da riƙe shi har zuwa Janairu don jefa ƙuri'a a majalisar EU. Abin da hakan ke yi wa kwanan watan 1 Janairu Brexit shine tunanin kowa.
Duk game da kayan gani ne tare da gwamnatin Burtaniya; suna buƙatar masu zaɓen su don ganin su a matsayin waɗanda suka yi nasara. Amma 'yan asalin Burtaniya suna rasa' yancin motsi, 'yancin da kakanninsu suka yi gwagwarmaya don karewa. Wannan saki ya kamata ya hada da lokacin makoki a Burtaniya; babu wani abin murna.
Sterling ya buga bulala da yawa a cikin makonnin da suka gabata yayin da tattaunawar ke gudana, kuma jita-jitar kulla yarjejeniya ta bayyana. A ranar Juma'a, 18 ga Disamba, GBP / USD yana ciniki -0.58%, sama da 2.15% mako-mako saboda kyakkyawan fata wani ci gaba ya gabato.
Pairididdigar kuɗin sun keta 50 DMA zuwa ɓarna a makon da ya gabata amma sun yi ciniki sama da matakin tun farkon Nuwamba. A halin yanzu wanda aka sanya a 1.3200 wannan yankin 50 DMA da lambar zagaye na iya zama manufa idan tattaunawar ta rushe ba tare da kowane irin yarjejeniya ba (duk da haka kwance) a wurin.
Bincike na hankali akan EUR / GBP akan jadawalin yau da kullun zai nuna yadda girman zangon bulala ya kasance a watan Disamba. A wani mataki a wannan makon tsaro ya faɗi ta cikin 100 DMA. 50 DMA da 100-DMA-gicciyen-mutuwa sun kusa samarwa a cikin makon yayin da matsakaicin matsakaita ya ragu. A ranar Juma'a, 18 ga Disamba, EUR / GBP sun yi ciniki zuwa 0.39% kuma sun tashi da 6.72% YTD.
Karafa masu daraja; aminci-mafaka mafaka a ko'ina cikin shekara
Idan kai dan kasuwa ne, ba zai yuwu ka yi nadamar sana'o'in da baka dauka ba a wannan shekara. Kai, idan kawai za mu shiga komai a kan Zoom da Tesla a wannan shekara yayin tsoma cikin Maris ko sayan NASDAQ 100 a matsayin amintaccen fare.
Samun dogon zinare da azurfa zai kasance mafaka ne na hangen nesa yayin watannin rikice-rikice da muka fuskanta. A matsayin wuraren tsaro, dukkanin PMs sun tashi da ƙarfi. Zinare ya karu da kashi 23% YTD yayin da azurfa ta tashi da kashi 43%. Haɗin saka hannun jari duka biyu, na zahiri ko ta hanyar dillalin ku, ya tabbatar da kyakkyawan shinge.
An buƙaci azurfa saboda ounce $ 26 ne kuma ƙasa da $ 12 a watan Maris. Samun $ 1,000 na ƙarfe ya kasance dama ga yawancin Amurkawa (waɗanda suka yi shakkar tsarin) na iya cin gajiyar irin waɗannan ƙananan kuɗi. Yawancin masu saka hannun jari da yawa sun iya saka hannun jari a cikin Bitcoin a lokacin 2020, wanda ya kai matsayi mafi girma a cikin 'yan kwanakin nan, yana keta matakin 23,000.
Manyan abubuwanda suka shafi tasiri don duba sati daya farawa daga Disamba 20
Gudun zuwa Xmas yawanci mako ne mai nutsuwa don muhimman labaran kalandar tattalin arziki. A ranar Talata Burtaniya ta buga sabbin alkaluman GDP, ana hasashen za su zo ba tare da canzawa ba daga kwata na baya a 15.5% QoQ da -9.6% YoY.
Karatun YoY zai baiwa Burtaniya matsayin mafi karfin tattalin arzikin G7 a yayin annobar duk da tiriliyan GBP na tallafi kuma ma'aikata miliyan 5.5 har yanzu ana biyansu yayin da suke kan karin hutu.
Sabanin haka, hasashen ga Amurka shine adadi mai girma na QQ GDP 33%, kodayake wannan yana iya zuwa da tsada mai tsada; kwayar ta Corona tana gudanar da ayyukanta, tana kashe kimanin mutane 3,000 a rana. Laraba tana ganin fitowar umarnin umarni masu dorewa ga Amurka, kashe kashin kai, kudaden shiga da sabbin bayanan tallace-tallace na gida, karatuttukan da zasu samar da hoto na kwarin gwiwar masu amfani.
« SPX500 ya kai matsayi mafi girma duk da mummunan bayanan rashin aikin yi yayin da USD ya sake faduwa Kudu maso Gabashin Burtaniya ya shiga cikin maƙarƙashiyar kullewa, Yarjejeniyar Brexit ta sake ɓacewa, Biden ya fara ba da hangen nesa »
